Evaluation of the Forecast Accuracy of Near-Surface Temperature and Wind in Northwest China Based on the WRF Model
This study investigated the performance of the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting near-surface atmospheric temperature and wind for a complex underlying surface in Northwest China in June and December 2015. The spatial distribution of the monthly average bias errors...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of Meteorological Research 2018-06, Vol.32 (3), p.469-490 |
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| creator | Duan, Haixia Li, Yaohui Zhang, Tiejun Pu, Zhaoxia Zhao, Cailing Liu, Yuanpu |
| description | This study investigated the performance of the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting near-surface atmospheric temperature and wind for a complex underlying surface in Northwest China in June and December 2015. The spatial distribution of the monthly average bias errors in the forecasts of 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed is analyzed first. It is found that the forecast errors for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed in June are strongly correlated with the terrain distribution. However, this type of correlation is not apparent in December, perhaps due to the inaccurate specification of the surface albedo and freezing–thawing process of frozen soil in winter in Northwest China in the WRF model. In addition, the WRF model is able to reproduce the diurnal variation in 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed, although with weakened magnitude. Elevations and land-use types have strong influences on the forecast of near-surface variables with seasonal variations. The overall results imply that accurate specification of the complex underlying surface and seasonal changes in land cover is necessary for improving near-surface forecasts over Northwest China. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s13351-018-7115-9 |
| format | Article |
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The spatial distribution of the monthly average bias errors in the forecasts of 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed is analyzed first. It is found that the forecast errors for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed in June are strongly correlated with the terrain distribution. However, this type of correlation is not apparent in December, perhaps due to the inaccurate specification of the surface albedo and freezing–thawing process of frozen soil in winter in Northwest China in the WRF model. In addition, the WRF model is able to reproduce the diurnal variation in 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed, although with weakened magnitude. Elevations and land-use types have strong influences on the forecast of near-surface variables with seasonal variations. The overall results imply that accurate specification of the complex underlying surface and seasonal changes in land cover is necessary for improving near-surface forecasts over Northwest China.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2095-6037</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2198-0934</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s13351-018-7115-9</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Beijing: The Chinese Meteorological Society</publisher><subject>Analysis ; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution ; Atmospheric Sciences ; Atmospheric temperature ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Geophysics and Environmental Physics ; Meteorological research ; Meteorology ; Numerical weather forecasting ; Special Collection on Weather and Climate Under Complex Terrain and Variable Land Surfaces: Observations and Numerical Simulations ; Weather</subject><ispartof>Journal of Meteorological Research, 2018-06, Vol.32 (3), p.469-490</ispartof><rights>The Chinese Meteorological Society and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2018 Springer</rights><rights>Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. 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The spatial distribution of the monthly average bias errors in the forecasts of 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed is analyzed first. It is found that the forecast errors for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed in June are strongly correlated with the terrain distribution. However, this type of correlation is not apparent in December, perhaps due to the inaccurate specification of the surface albedo and freezing–thawing process of frozen soil in winter in Northwest China in the WRF model. In addition, the WRF model is able to reproduce the diurnal variation in 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed, although with weakened magnitude. Elevations and land-use types have strong influences on the forecast of near-surface variables with seasonal variations. The overall results imply that accurate specification of the complex underlying surface and seasonal changes in land cover is necessary for improving near-surface forecasts over Northwest China.</description><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution</subject><subject>Atmospheric Sciences</subject><subject>Atmospheric temperature</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Geophysics and Environmental Physics</subject><subject>Meteorological research</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>Numerical weather forecasting</subject><subject>Special Collection on Weather and Climate Under Complex Terrain and Variable Land Surfaces: Observations and Numerical Simulations</subject><subject>Weather</subject><issn>2095-6037</issn><issn>2198-0934</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp1kU9v1DAQxSMEElXpB-DmGyeXGTuJk-Oy6gJSKRIU9WjNOuPdVLt2sZP--fZ4FSROyJI9st_vje1XVe8RLhHAfMyodYMSsJMGsZH9q-pMYd9J6HX9utTQN7IFbd5WFznfA4DqVWOUOqvS1SMdZprGGET0Ytqz2MTEjvIkVs7NidzL6eCGKcmfc_LkWNzy8YETTXNiQWEQd2OZxiBuYpr2T1zQ9X4MJD5R5kEU55Pt3Y-N-BYHPryr3ng6ZL74u55XvzZXt-sv8vr756_r1bV0NahJOm4cNUzOu57UoHznVOsH16hab7EjwwOgq7ddDT1p05q6QzBm0J2qi8zr8-rD4vtEwVPY2fs4p1A62t_Pz1vLqvwXaEAsystFuaMD2zH4OJV3lzHwcXQxsB_L_spgq7CttSkALoBLMefE3j6k8UjpxSLYUyR2icSWFvYUie0LoxYmF23Ycfp3n_9DfwC3Do4A</recordid><startdate>20180601</startdate><enddate>20180601</enddate><creator>Duan, Haixia</creator><creator>Li, Yaohui</creator><creator>Zhang, Tiejun</creator><creator>Pu, Zhaoxia</creator><creator>Zhao, Cailing</creator><creator>Liu, Yuanpu</creator><general>The Chinese Meteorological Society</general><general>Springer</general><general>Northwestern Regional Center of Numerical Weather Prediction/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Gansu Province, Institute of Arid Meteorology of CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China%Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Utah , Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>IAO</scope><scope>2B.</scope><scope>4A8</scope><scope>92I</scope><scope>93N</scope><scope>PSX</scope><scope>TCJ</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20180601</creationdate><title>Evaluation of the Forecast Accuracy of Near-Surface Temperature and Wind in Northwest China Based on the WRF Model</title><author>Duan, Haixia ; Li, Yaohui ; Zhang, Tiejun ; Pu, Zhaoxia ; Zhao, Cailing ; Liu, Yuanpu</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c402t-ce5ca5eacfc9a2d2f8c26fdc5243b18a7ed01c4b8409a3767481077d3824fdcf3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2018</creationdate><topic>Analysis</topic><topic>Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution</topic><topic>Atmospheric Sciences</topic><topic>Atmospheric temperature</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Geophysics and Environmental Physics</topic><topic>Meteorological research</topic><topic>Meteorology</topic><topic>Numerical weather forecasting</topic><topic>Special Collection on Weather and Climate Under Complex Terrain and Variable Land Surfaces: Observations and Numerical Simulations</topic><topic>Weather</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Duan, Haixia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Yaohui</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Tiejun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pu, Zhaoxia</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Cailing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Yuanpu</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Gale Academic OneFile</collection><collection>Wanfang Data Journals - Hong Kong</collection><collection>WANFANG Data Centre</collection><collection>Wanfang Data Journals</collection><collection>万方数据期刊 - 香港版</collection><collection>China Online Journals (COJ)</collection><collection>China Online Journals (COJ)</collection><jtitle>Journal of Meteorological Research</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Duan, Haixia</au><au>Li, Yaohui</au><au>Zhang, Tiejun</au><au>Pu, Zhaoxia</au><au>Zhao, Cailing</au><au>Liu, Yuanpu</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Evaluation of the Forecast Accuracy of Near-Surface Temperature and Wind in Northwest China Based on the WRF Model</atitle><jtitle>Journal of Meteorological Research</jtitle><stitle>J Meteorol Res</stitle><date>2018-06-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>32</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>469</spage><epage>490</epage><pages>469-490</pages><issn>2095-6037</issn><eissn>2198-0934</eissn><abstract>This study investigated the performance of the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting near-surface atmospheric temperature and wind for a complex underlying surface in Northwest China in June and December 2015. The spatial distribution of the monthly average bias errors in the forecasts of 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed is analyzed first. It is found that the forecast errors for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed in June are strongly correlated with the terrain distribution. However, this type of correlation is not apparent in December, perhaps due to the inaccurate specification of the surface albedo and freezing–thawing process of frozen soil in winter in Northwest China in the WRF model. In addition, the WRF model is able to reproduce the diurnal variation in 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed, although with weakened magnitude. Elevations and land-use types have strong influences on the forecast of near-surface variables with seasonal variations. The overall results imply that accurate specification of the complex underlying surface and seasonal changes in land cover is necessary for improving near-surface forecasts over Northwest China.</abstract><cop>Beijing</cop><pub>The Chinese Meteorological Society</pub><doi>10.1007/s13351-018-7115-9</doi><tpages>22</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Analysis Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Atmospheric Sciences Atmospheric temperature Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Geophysics and Environmental Physics Meteorological research Meteorology Numerical weather forecasting Special Collection on Weather and Climate Under Complex Terrain and Variable Land Surfaces: Observations and Numerical Simulations Weather |
| title | Evaluation of the Forecast Accuracy of Near-Surface Temperature and Wind in Northwest China Based on the WRF Model |
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