Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature
Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circul...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Advances in atmospheric sciences 2005-03, Vol.22 (2), p.159-171 |
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| creator | Lee, Jeong-Hyeong Kim, Byungsoo Sohn, Keon-Tae Kown, Won-Tae Min, Seung-Ki |
| description | Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO4^2-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SO4^2- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the direct cooling effect of SO4^2- played a less important role (0%-7%) than the CO2 effect. The prediction of surface temperature change was estimated from the second CO2+SO4^2- scenario run of ECHAM4/OPYC3 which has the least error in the simulation of the present-day temperature field near the Korean Peninsula. The result shows that the area-mean surface temperature near the Korean Peninsula will increase by about 1.1° by the 2040s relative to the 1990s. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/BF02918506 |
| format | Article |
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The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO4^2-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SO4^2- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the direct cooling effect of SO4^2- played a less important role (0%-7%) than the CO2 effect. The prediction of surface temperature change was estimated from the second CO2+SO4^2- scenario run of ECHAM4/OPYC3 which has the least error in the simulation of the present-day temperature field near the Korean Peninsula. The result shows that the area-mean surface temperature near the Korean Peninsula will increase by about 1.1° by the 2040s relative to the 1990s.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0256-1530</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1861-9533</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/BF02918506</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Nature B.V</publisher><subject>Aerosol concentrations ; Anthropogenic climate changes ; Anthropogenic factors ; Bayesian analysis ; Carbon dioxide ; Change detection ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climatic analysis ; Cooling effects ; Detection ; General circulation models ; NCEP/NCAR reanalysis ; Probability theory ; Signal analysis ; Simulation ; Sulfates ; Surface temperature ; Temperature ; Temperature changes ; Temperature distribution ; Temperature effects ; Temperature fields ; Variance analysis ; 亚洲东北部 ; 信号解析 ; 天气探测 ; 气候变化</subject><ispartof>Advances in atmospheric sciences, 2005-03, Vol.22 (2), p.159-171</ispartof><rights>Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2003</rights><rights>Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2003.</rights><rights>Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c370t-8641c3ea44d4ecc2e9986424f4cbb2f4ddb78b710782f40f107a9af2b83b07033</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c370t-8641c3ea44d4ecc2e9986424f4cbb2f4ddb78b710782f40f107a9af2b83b07033</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Uhttp://image.cqvip.com/vip1000/qk/84334X/84334X.jpg</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27915,27916</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Lee, Jeong-Hyeong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kim, Byungsoo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sohn, Keon-Tae</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kown, Won-Tae</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Min, Seung-Ki</creatorcontrib><title>Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature</title><title>Advances in atmospheric sciences</title><addtitle>Advances in Atmospheric Sciences</addtitle><description>Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO4^2-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SO4^2- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the direct cooling effect of SO4^2- played a less important role (0%-7%) than the CO2 effect. The prediction of surface temperature change was estimated from the second CO2+SO4^2- scenario run of ECHAM4/OPYC3 which has the least error in the simulation of the present-day temperature field near the Korean Peninsula. The result shows that the area-mean surface temperature near the Korean Peninsula will increase by about 1.1° by the 2040s relative to the 1990s.</description><subject>Aerosol concentrations</subject><subject>Anthropogenic climate changes</subject><subject>Anthropogenic factors</subject><subject>Bayesian analysis</subject><subject>Carbon dioxide</subject><subject>Change detection</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climatic analysis</subject><subject>Cooling effects</subject><subject>Detection</subject><subject>General circulation models</subject><subject>NCEP/NCAR reanalysis</subject><subject>Probability theory</subject><subject>Signal analysis</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Sulfates</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Temperature changes</subject><subject>Temperature distribution</subject><subject>Temperature effects</subject><subject>Temperature 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Seung-Ki</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature</atitle><jtitle>Advances in atmospheric sciences</jtitle><addtitle>Advances in Atmospheric Sciences</addtitle><date>2005-03-01</date><risdate>2005</risdate><volume>22</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>159</spage><epage>171</epage><pages>159-171</pages><issn>0256-1530</issn><eissn>1861-9533</eissn><abstract>Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO4^2-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SO4^2- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the direct cooling effect of SO4^2- played a less important role (0%-7%) than the CO2 effect. The prediction of surface temperature change was estimated from the second CO2+SO4^2- scenario run of ECHAM4/OPYC3 which has the least error in the simulation of the present-day temperature field near the Korean Peninsula. The result shows that the area-mean surface temperature near the Korean Peninsula will increase by about 1.1° by the 2040s relative to the 1990s.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Nature B.V</pub><doi>10.1007/BF02918506</doi><tpages>13</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Advances in atmospheric sciences, 2005-03, Vol.22 (2), p.159-171 |
| issn | 0256-1530 1861-9533 |
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| subjects | Aerosol concentrations Anthropogenic climate changes Anthropogenic factors Bayesian analysis Carbon dioxide Change detection Climate Climate change Climate models Climatic analysis Cooling effects Detection General circulation models NCEP/NCAR reanalysis Probability theory Signal analysis Simulation Sulfates Surface temperature Temperature Temperature changes Temperature distribution Temperature effects Temperature fields Variance analysis 亚洲东北部 信号解析 天气探测 气候变化 |
| title | Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature |
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