Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study
Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosi...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | The Lancet infectious diseases 2018-12, Vol.18 (12), p.1329-1349 |
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| creator | Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe Maddison, Emilie R Ledesma, Jorge R Shields, Chloe Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron Ross, Jennifer M Carter, Austin Frank, Tahvi D Wang, Haidong Alahdab, Fares Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Andrews, Jason R Antonio, Carl Abelardo T Atique, Suleman Atre, Sachin R Badali, Hamid Badawi, Alaa Behzadifar, Meysam Bekele, Bayu Begashaw Belay, Saba Abraham Bensenor, Isabela M Butt, Zahid A Carvalho, Félix Cercy, Kelly Daba, Alemneh Kabeta Dandona, Rakhi Daryani, Ahmad Deribe, Kebede Edessa, Dumessa Enany, Shymaa Fernandes, Eduarda Fischer, Florian Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L Gebre, Abadi Kahsu Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gona, Philimon N Goodridge, Amador Gupta, Rahul Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan Hassen, Hamid Yimam Hedayati, Mohammad T. Tadesse Hostiuc, Sorin Hussen, Mamusha Aman Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi Jonas, Jost B. Kahsay, Amaha Kant, Surya Kasaeian, Amir Khader, Yousef Saleh Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif Khalil, Ibrahim Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Kochhar, Sonali Kumar, G Anil Leshargie, Cheru Tesema Lodha, Rakesh Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King Mendoza, Walter Mestrovic, Tomislav Moazen, Babak Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammed, Shafiu Mokdad, Ali H Moosazadeh, Mahmood Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam Nachega, Jean B Nguyen, Son Hoang Nguyen, Trang Huyen Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini Nirayo, Yirga Legesse Nong, Vuong Minh Ofori-Asenso, Richard Ogbo, Felix Akpojene Oh, In-Hwan Oladimeji, Olanrewaju Olagunju, Andrew T Oren, Eyal Rafay, Anwar Rai, Rajesh Kumar Rubino, Salvatore Safiri, Saeid Samy, Abdallah M. Sartorius, Benn Silva, João Pedro Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna Ullah, Irfan Uthman, Olalekan A Vlassov, Vasily Vollset, Stein Emil Weldegebreal, Fitsum Werdecker, Andrea Yonemoto, Naohiro Naghavi, Mohsen Hay, Simon I Murray, Christopher J L |
| description | Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.
We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.
Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·05–10·16) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 1·21 million (1·16–1·27). Among HIV-positive individuals, the number of incident cases was 1·40 million (1·01–1·89) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 0·24 million (0·16–0·31). Globally, among HIV-negative individuals the age-standardised incidence of tuberculosis decreased annually at a slower rate (–1·3% [–1·5 to −1·2]) than mortality did (–4·5% [–5·0 to −4·1]) from 2006 to 2016. Among HIV-positive individuals during the same period, the rate of change in annualised age-standardised incidence was −4·0% (–4·5 to −3·7) and mortality was −8·9% (–9·5 to −8·4). Several regions had higher rates of age-standardised incidence and mortality than expected on the basis of their SDI levels in 2016. For drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the highest observed-to-expected ratios were in southern sub-Saharan Africa (13·7 for incidence and 14·9 for mortality), and the lowest ratios were in high-income North America (0·4 for incidence) and Ocea |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30625-X |
| format | Article |
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Tadesse ; Hostiuc, Sorin ; Hussen, Mamusha Aman ; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen ; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi ; Jonas, Jost B. ; Kahsay, Amaha ; Kant, Surya ; Kasaeian, Amir ; Khader, Yousef Saleh ; Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif ; Khalil, Ibrahim ; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad ; Kochhar, Sonali ; Kumar, G Anil ; Leshargie, Cheru Tesema ; Lodha, Rakesh ; Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King ; Mendoza, Walter ; Mestrovic, Tomislav ; Moazen, Babak ; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin ; Mohammed, Shafiu ; Mokdad, Ali H ; Moosazadeh, Mahmood ; Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam ; Nachega, Jean B ; Nguyen, Son Hoang ; Nguyen, Trang Huyen ; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini ; Nirayo, Yirga Legesse ; Nong, Vuong Minh ; Ofori-Asenso, Richard ; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene ; Oh, In-Hwan ; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju ; Olagunju, Andrew T ; Oren, Eyal ; Rafay, Anwar ; Rai, Rajesh Kumar ; Rubino, Salvatore ; Safiri, Saeid ; Samy, Abdallah M. ; Sartorius, Benn ; Silva, João Pedro ; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves ; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T ; Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel ; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna ; Ullah, Irfan ; Uthman, Olalekan A ; Vlassov, Vasily ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Weldegebreal, Fitsum ; Werdecker, Andrea ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Naghavi, Mohsen ; Hay, Simon I ; Murray, Christopher J L</creator><creatorcontrib>Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe ; Maddison, Emilie R ; Ledesma, Jorge R ; Shields, Chloe ; Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron ; Ross, Jennifer M ; Carter, Austin ; Frank, Tahvi D ; Wang, Haidong ; Alahdab, Fares ; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson ; Andrews, Jason R ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Atique, Suleman ; Atre, Sachin R ; Badali, Hamid ; Badawi, Alaa ; Behzadifar, Meysam ; Bekele, Bayu Begashaw ; Belay, Saba Abraham ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Butt, Zahid A ; Carvalho, Félix ; Cercy, Kelly ; Daba, Alemneh Kabeta ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Daryani, Ahmad ; Deribe, Kebede ; Edessa, Dumessa ; Enany, Shymaa ; Fernandes, Eduarda ; Fischer, Florian ; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L ; Gebre, Abadi Kahsu ; Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe ; Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo ; Gona, Philimon N ; Goodridge, Amador ; Gupta, Rahul ; Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan ; Hassen, Hamid Yimam ; Hedayati, Mohammad T. Tadesse ; Hostiuc, Sorin ; Hussen, Mamusha Aman ; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen ; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi ; Jonas, Jost B. ; Kahsay, Amaha ; Kant, Surya ; Kasaeian, Amir ; Khader, Yousef Saleh ; Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif ; Khalil, Ibrahim ; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad ; Kochhar, Sonali ; Kumar, G Anil ; Leshargie, Cheru Tesema ; Lodha, Rakesh ; Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King ; Mendoza, Walter ; Mestrovic, Tomislav ; Moazen, Babak ; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin ; Mohammed, Shafiu ; Mokdad, Ali H ; Moosazadeh, Mahmood ; Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam ; Nachega, Jean B ; Nguyen, Son Hoang ; Nguyen, Trang Huyen ; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini ; Nirayo, Yirga Legesse ; Nong, Vuong Minh ; Ofori-Asenso, Richard ; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene ; Oh, In-Hwan ; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju ; Olagunju, Andrew T ; Oren, Eyal ; Rafay, Anwar ; Rai, Rajesh Kumar ; Rubino, Salvatore ; Safiri, Saeid ; Samy, Abdallah M. ; Sartorius, Benn ; Silva, João Pedro ; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves ; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T ; Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel ; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna ; Ullah, Irfan ; Uthman, Olalekan A ; Vlassov, Vasily ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Weldegebreal, Fitsum ; Werdecker, Andrea ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Naghavi, Mohsen ; Hay, Simon I ; Murray, Christopher J L ; GBD Tuberculosis Collaborators</creatorcontrib><description>Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.
We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.
Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·05–10·16) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 1·21 million (1·16–1·27). Among HIV-positive individuals, the number of incident cases was 1·40 million (1·01–1·89) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 0·24 million (0·16–0·31). Globally, among HIV-negative individuals the age-standardised incidence of tuberculosis decreased annually at a slower rate (–1·3% [–1·5 to −1·2]) than mortality did (–4·5% [–5·0 to −4·1]) from 2006 to 2016. Among HIV-positive individuals during the same period, the rate of change in annualised age-standardised incidence was −4·0% (–4·5 to −3·7) and mortality was −8·9% (–9·5 to −8·4). Several regions had higher rates of age-standardised incidence and mortality than expected on the basis of their SDI levels in 2016. For drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the highest observed-to-expected ratios were in southern sub-Saharan Africa (13·7 for incidence and 14·9 for mortality), and the lowest ratios were in high-income North America (0·4 for incidence) and Oceania (0·3 for mortality). For multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, eastern Europe had the highest observed-to-expected ratios (67·3 for incidence and 73·0 for mortality), and high-income North America had the lowest ratios (0·4 for incidence and 0·5 for mortality).
If current trends in tuberculosis incidence continue, few countries are likely to meet the SDG target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030. Progress needs to be accelerated by improving the quality of and access to tuberculosis diagnosis and care, by developing new tools, scaling up interventions to prevent risk factors for tuberculosis, and integrating control programmes for tuberculosis and HIV.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1473-3099</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1474-4457</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30625-X</identifier><identifier>PMID: 30507459</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><subject>Age ; Autopsies ; Autopsy ; Bayesian analysis ; Charities ; Data processing ; Decision making ; Demographics ; Disease ; Drug resistance ; Epidemics ; Fatalities ; Fertility ; HIV ; Human immunodeficiency virus ; Incidence ; Income ; Infectious diseases ; Injuries ; Injury prevention ; Low income groups ; Mortality ; Multidrug resistance ; Multidrug resistant organisms ; Pathogens ; Polls & surveys ; Public health ; Quality ; Registration ; Regression analysis ; Risk analysis ; Risk factors ; Scaling ; Sociodemographics ; Studies ; Surveillance ; Sustainable development ; Trends ; Tuberculin ; Tuberculosis</subject><ispartof>The Lancet infectious diseases, 2018-12, Vol.18 (12), p.1329-1349</ispartof><rights>2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license</rights><rights>Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Limited Dec 2018</rights><rights>2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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Tadesse</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hostiuc, Sorin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hussen, Mamusha Aman</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jonas, Jost B.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kahsay, Amaha</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kant, Surya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kasaeian, Amir</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Khader, Yousef Saleh</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Khalil, Ibrahim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Khan, Ejaz Ahmad</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kochhar, Sonali</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kumar, G Anil</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Leshargie, Cheru Tesema</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lodha, Rakesh</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mendoza, Walter</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mestrovic, Tomislav</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Moazen, Babak</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mohammed, Shafiu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mokdad, Ali H</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Moosazadeh, Mahmood</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nachega, Jean B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nguyen, Son Hoang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nguyen, Trang Huyen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nirayo, Yirga Legesse</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nong, Vuong Minh</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ofori-Asenso, Richard</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ogbo, Felix Akpojene</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Oh, In-Hwan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Oladimeji, Olanrewaju</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Olagunju, Andrew T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Oren, Eyal</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rafay, Anwar</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rai, Rajesh Kumar</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rubino, Salvatore</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Safiri, Saeid</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Samy, Abdallah M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sartorius, Benn</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Silva, João Pedro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ullah, Irfan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Uthman, Olalekan A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vlassov, Vasily</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vollset, Stein Emil</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Weldegebreal, Fitsum</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Werdecker, Andrea</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yonemoto, Naohiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Naghavi, Mohsen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hay, Simon I</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Murray, Christopher J L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>GBD Tuberculosis Collaborators</creatorcontrib><title>Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study</title><title>The Lancet infectious diseases</title><addtitle>Lancet Infect Dis</addtitle><description>Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.
We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.
Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·05–10·16) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 1·21 million (1·16–1·27). Among HIV-positive individuals, the number of incident cases was 1·40 million (1·01–1·89) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 0·24 million (0·16–0·31). Globally, among HIV-negative individuals the age-standardised incidence of tuberculosis decreased annually at a slower rate (–1·3% [–1·5 to −1·2]) than mortality did (–4·5% [–5·0 to −4·1]) from 2006 to 2016. Among HIV-positive individuals during the same period, the rate of change in annualised age-standardised incidence was −4·0% (–4·5 to −3·7) and mortality was −8·9% (–9·5 to −8·4). Several regions had higher rates of age-standardised incidence and mortality than expected on the basis of their SDI levels in 2016. For drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the highest observed-to-expected ratios were in southern sub-Saharan Africa (13·7 for incidence and 14·9 for mortality), and the lowest ratios were in high-income North America (0·4 for incidence) and Oceania (0·3 for mortality). For multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, eastern Europe had the highest observed-to-expected ratios (67·3 for incidence and 73·0 for mortality), and high-income North America had the lowest ratios (0·4 for incidence and 0·5 for mortality).
If current trends in tuberculosis incidence continue, few countries are likely to meet the SDG target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030. Progress needs to be accelerated by improving the quality of and access to tuberculosis diagnosis and care, by developing new tools, scaling up interventions to prevent risk factors for tuberculosis, and integrating control programmes for tuberculosis and HIV.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</description><subject>Age</subject><subject>Autopsies</subject><subject>Autopsy</subject><subject>Bayesian analysis</subject><subject>Charities</subject><subject>Data processing</subject><subject>Decision making</subject><subject>Demographics</subject><subject>Disease</subject><subject>Drug resistance</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Fatalities</subject><subject>Fertility</subject><subject>HIV</subject><subject>Human immunodeficiency virus</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Income</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Injuries</subject><subject>Injury prevention</subject><subject>Low income groups</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Multidrug resistance</subject><subject>Multidrug resistant organisms</subject><subject>Pathogens</subject><subject>Polls & surveys</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Quality</subject><subject>Registration</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Risk analysis</subject><subject>Risk factors</subject><subject>Scaling</subject><subject>Sociodemographics</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Surveillance</subject><subject>Sustainable development</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Tuberculin</subject><subject>Tuberculosis</subject><issn>1473-3099</issn><issn>1474-4457</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>D8T</sourceid><recordid>eNqFks1u1DAUhSMEoqXwCCBLbFqpATu2k5gFqBRaKlVCoiB1Z9nOTetpJi7-KeqOd0C8IE-CMxlGlA2r3NjfOffaPkXxlOAXBJP65RlhDS0pFmKXtHsU1xUvz-8V23mZlYzx5v6qnpGt4lEIC4xJQzB7WGxRzHHDuNgufh4PTqthH3m4sG6cKjV2aFRx9Yd08h2MyPUoJg3epMEFG_YREQL_-v6jyqO8ytqQhhhQ790SxUtAsyl6uxG_swFUgCw8GRfJ26ma-nyy4QodKROdD2gyQ2cxdbePiwe9GgI8WX93ii9H7z8ffihPPx6fHB6cloYLEUvR1CSfRClgTYU7wrXShjUdrRqtcF9hTBtN6p5nkBPAnVD5mirct1hrziq6U5Szb_gG10nLa2-Xyt9Kp6xcL13lCiRrad1M_OuZzztL6AyM0avhjuzuzmgv5YW7kbktzpNmg921gXdfE4QolzYYGAY1gktBVoSJllPeTujzf9CFSz6_yUTRmon8lDxTfKaMdyF46DfDECynoMhVUOSUAklauQqKPM-6Z3-fZKP6k4wMvJkByPd_Y8HLYCyMBjrrwUTZOfufFr8BnpnNjw</recordid><startdate>20181201</startdate><enddate>20181201</enddate><creator>Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe</creator><creator>Maddison, Emilie R</creator><creator>Ledesma, Jorge R</creator><creator>Shields, Chloe</creator><creator>Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron</creator><creator>Ross, Jennifer M</creator><creator>Carter, Austin</creator><creator>Frank, Tahvi D</creator><creator>Wang, Haidong</creator><creator>Alahdab, Fares</creator><creator>Alvis-Guzman, Nelson</creator><creator>Andrews, Jason R</creator><creator>Antonio, Carl Abelardo T</creator><creator>Atique, Suleman</creator><creator>Atre, Sachin R</creator><creator>Badali, Hamid</creator><creator>Badawi, Alaa</creator><creator>Behzadifar, Meysam</creator><creator>Bekele, Bayu Begashaw</creator><creator>Belay, Saba Abraham</creator><creator>Bensenor, Isabela M</creator><creator>Butt, Zahid A</creator><creator>Carvalho, Félix</creator><creator>Cercy, Kelly</creator><creator>Daba, Alemneh Kabeta</creator><creator>Dandona, Rakhi</creator><creator>Daryani, Ahmad</creator><creator>Deribe, Kebede</creator><creator>Edessa, Dumessa</creator><creator>Enany, Shymaa</creator><creator>Fernandes, Eduarda</creator><creator>Fischer, Florian</creator><creator>Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L</creator><creator>Gebre, Abadi Kahsu</creator><creator>Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe</creator><creator>Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo</creator><creator>Gona, Philimon N</creator><creator>Goodridge, Amador</creator><creator>Gupta, Rahul</creator><creator>Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan</creator><creator>Hassen, Hamid Yimam</creator><creator>Hedayati, Mohammad T. Tadesse</creator><creator>Hostiuc, Sorin</creator><creator>Hussen, Mamusha Aman</creator><creator>Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen</creator><creator>Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi</creator><creator>Jonas, Jost B.</creator><creator>Kahsay, Amaha</creator><creator>Kant, Surya</creator><creator>Kasaeian, Amir</creator><creator>Khader, Yousef Saleh</creator><creator>Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif</creator><creator>Khalil, Ibrahim</creator><creator>Khan, Ejaz Ahmad</creator><creator>Kochhar, Sonali</creator><creator>Kumar, G Anil</creator><creator>Leshargie, Cheru Tesema</creator><creator>Lodha, Rakesh</creator><creator>Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King</creator><creator>Mendoza, Walter</creator><creator>Mestrovic, Tomislav</creator><creator>Moazen, Babak</creator><creator>Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin</creator><creator>Mohammed, Shafiu</creator><creator>Mokdad, Ali H</creator><creator>Moosazadeh, Mahmood</creator><creator>Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam</creator><creator>Nachega, Jean B</creator><creator>Nguyen, Son Hoang</creator><creator>Nguyen, Trang Huyen</creator><creator>Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini</creator><creator>Nirayo, Yirga Legesse</creator><creator>Nong, Vuong Minh</creator><creator>Ofori-Asenso, Richard</creator><creator>Ogbo, Felix Akpojene</creator><creator>Oh, In-Hwan</creator><creator>Oladimeji, Olanrewaju</creator><creator>Olagunju, Andrew T</creator><creator>Oren, Eyal</creator><creator>Rafay, Anwar</creator><creator>Rai, Rajesh Kumar</creator><creator>Rubino, Salvatore</creator><creator>Safiri, Saeid</creator><creator>Samy, Abdallah M.</creator><creator>Sartorius, Benn</creator><creator>Silva, João Pedro</creator><creator>Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves</creator><creator>Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T</creator><creator>Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel</creator><creator>Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna</creator><creator>Ullah, Irfan</creator><creator>Uthman, Olalekan A</creator><creator>Vlassov, Vasily</creator><creator>Vollset, Stein Emil</creator><creator>Weldegebreal, Fitsum</creator><creator>Werdecker, Andrea</creator><creator>Yonemoto, Naohiro</creator><creator>Naghavi, Mohsen</creator><creator>Hay, Simon I</creator><creator>Murray, Christopher J L</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><general>Elsevier Limited</general><general>Elsevier Science ;, The Lancet Pub. Group</general><scope>6I.</scope><scope>AAFTH</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>0TZ</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8C2</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>ADTPV</scope><scope>AOWAS</scope><scope>D8T</scope><scope>ZZAVC</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20181201</creationdate><title>Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study</title><author>Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe ; Maddison, Emilie R ; Ledesma, Jorge R ; Shields, Chloe ; Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron ; Ross, Jennifer M ; Carter, Austin ; Frank, Tahvi D ; Wang, Haidong ; Alahdab, Fares ; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson ; Andrews, Jason R ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Atique, Suleman ; Atre, Sachin R ; Badali, Hamid ; Badawi, Alaa ; Behzadifar, Meysam ; Bekele, Bayu Begashaw ; Belay, Saba Abraham ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Butt, Zahid A ; Carvalho, Félix ; Cercy, Kelly ; Daba, Alemneh Kabeta ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Daryani, Ahmad ; Deribe, Kebede ; Edessa, Dumessa ; Enany, Shymaa ; Fernandes, Eduarda ; Fischer, Florian ; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L ; Gebre, Abadi Kahsu ; Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe ; Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo ; Gona, Philimon N ; Goodridge, Amador ; Gupta, Rahul ; Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan ; Hassen, Hamid Yimam ; Hedayati, Mohammad T. Tadesse ; Hostiuc, Sorin ; Hussen, Mamusha Aman ; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen ; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi ; Jonas, Jost B. ; Kahsay, Amaha ; Kant, Surya ; Kasaeian, Amir ; Khader, Yousef Saleh ; Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif ; Khalil, Ibrahim ; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad ; Kochhar, Sonali ; Kumar, G Anil ; Leshargie, Cheru Tesema ; Lodha, Rakesh ; Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King ; Mendoza, Walter ; Mestrovic, Tomislav ; Moazen, Babak ; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin ; Mohammed, Shafiu ; Mokdad, Ali H ; Moosazadeh, Mahmood ; Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam ; Nachega, Jean B ; Nguyen, Son Hoang ; Nguyen, Trang Huyen ; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini ; Nirayo, Yirga Legesse ; Nong, Vuong Minh ; Ofori-Asenso, Richard ; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene ; Oh, In-Hwan ; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju ; Olagunju, Andrew T ; Oren, Eyal ; Rafay, Anwar ; Rai, Rajesh Kumar ; Rubino, Salvatore ; Safiri, Saeid ; Samy, Abdallah M. ; Sartorius, Benn ; Silva, João Pedro ; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves ; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T ; Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel ; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna ; Ullah, Irfan ; Uthman, Olalekan A ; Vlassov, Vasily ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Weldegebreal, Fitsum ; Werdecker, Andrea ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Naghavi, Mohsen ; Hay, Simon I ; Murray, Christopher J L</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c599t-9761050aae4720d15babc47d327ba0f20037b16f597651e0d9a62520f80bb5423</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2018</creationdate><topic>Age</topic><topic>Autopsies</topic><topic>Autopsy</topic><topic>Bayesian analysis</topic><topic>Charities</topic><topic>Data processing</topic><topic>Decision making</topic><topic>Demographics</topic><topic>Disease</topic><topic>Drug resistance</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>Fatalities</topic><topic>Fertility</topic><topic>HIV</topic><topic>Human immunodeficiency virus</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Income</topic><topic>Infectious diseases</topic><topic>Injuries</topic><topic>Injury prevention</topic><topic>Low income groups</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Multidrug resistance</topic><topic>Multidrug resistant organisms</topic><topic>Pathogens</topic><topic>Polls & surveys</topic><topic>Public health</topic><topic>Quality</topic><topic>Registration</topic><topic>Regression analysis</topic><topic>Risk analysis</topic><topic>Risk factors</topic><topic>Scaling</topic><topic>Sociodemographics</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Surveillance</topic><topic>Sustainable development</topic><topic>Trends</topic><topic>Tuberculin</topic><topic>Tuberculosis</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Maddison, Emilie R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ledesma, Jorge R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shields, Chloe</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ross, Jennifer M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Carter, Austin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Frank, Tahvi D</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Haidong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Alahdab, Fares</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Alvis-Guzman, Nelson</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Andrews, Jason R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Antonio, Carl Abelardo T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Atique, Suleman</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Atre, Sachin R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Badali, Hamid</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Badawi, Alaa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Behzadifar, Meysam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bekele, Bayu Begashaw</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Belay, Saba Abraham</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bensenor, Isabela M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Butt, Zahid A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Carvalho, Félix</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cercy, Kelly</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Daba, Alemneh Kabeta</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dandona, Rakhi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Daryani, Ahmad</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Deribe, Kebede</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Edessa, Dumessa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Enany, Shymaa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fernandes, Eduarda</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fischer, Florian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gebre, Abadi Kahsu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gona, Philimon N</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Goodridge, Amador</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gupta, Rahul</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hassen, Hamid Yimam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hedayati, Mohammad T. 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Suleman</au><au>Atre, Sachin R</au><au>Badali, Hamid</au><au>Badawi, Alaa</au><au>Behzadifar, Meysam</au><au>Bekele, Bayu Begashaw</au><au>Belay, Saba Abraham</au><au>Bensenor, Isabela M</au><au>Butt, Zahid A</au><au>Carvalho, Félix</au><au>Cercy, Kelly</au><au>Daba, Alemneh Kabeta</au><au>Dandona, Rakhi</au><au>Daryani, Ahmad</au><au>Deribe, Kebede</au><au>Edessa, Dumessa</au><au>Enany, Shymaa</au><au>Fernandes, Eduarda</au><au>Fischer, Florian</au><au>Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L</au><au>Gebre, Abadi Kahsu</au><au>Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe</au><au>Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo</au><au>Gona, Philimon N</au><au>Goodridge, Amador</au><au>Gupta, Rahul</au><au>Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan</au><au>Hassen, Hamid Yimam</au><au>Hedayati, Mohammad T. Tadesse</au><au>Hostiuc, Sorin</au><au>Hussen, Mamusha Aman</au><au>Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen</au><au>Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi</au><au>Jonas, Jost B.</au><au>Kahsay, Amaha</au><au>Kant, Surya</au><au>Kasaeian, Amir</au><au>Khader, Yousef Saleh</au><au>Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif</au><au>Khalil, Ibrahim</au><au>Khan, Ejaz Ahmad</au><au>Kochhar, Sonali</au><au>Kumar, G Anil</au><au>Leshargie, Cheru Tesema</au><au>Lodha, Rakesh</au><au>Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King</au><au>Mendoza, Walter</au><au>Mestrovic, Tomislav</au><au>Moazen, Babak</au><au>Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin</au><au>Mohammed, Shafiu</au><au>Mokdad, Ali H</au><au>Moosazadeh, Mahmood</au><au>Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam</au><au>Nachega, Jean B</au><au>Nguyen, Son Hoang</au><au>Nguyen, Trang Huyen</au><au>Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini</au><au>Nirayo, Yirga Legesse</au><au>Nong, Vuong Minh</au><au>Ofori-Asenso, Richard</au><au>Ogbo, Felix Akpojene</au><au>Oh, In-Hwan</au><au>Oladimeji, Olanrewaju</au><au>Olagunju, Andrew T</au><au>Oren, Eyal</au><au>Rafay, Anwar</au><au>Rai, Rajesh Kumar</au><au>Rubino, Salvatore</au><au>Safiri, Saeid</au><au>Samy, Abdallah M.</au><au>Sartorius, Benn</au><au>Silva, João Pedro</au><au>Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves</au><au>Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T</au><au>Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel</au><au>Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna</au><au>Ullah, Irfan</au><au>Uthman, Olalekan A</au><au>Vlassov, Vasily</au><au>Vollset, Stein Emil</au><au>Weldegebreal, Fitsum</au><au>Werdecker, Andrea</au><au>Yonemoto, Naohiro</au><au>Naghavi, Mohsen</au><au>Hay, Simon I</au><au>Murray, Christopher J L</au><aucorp>GBD Tuberculosis Collaborators</aucorp><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study</atitle><jtitle>The Lancet infectious diseases</jtitle><addtitle>Lancet Infect Dis</addtitle><date>2018-12-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>18</volume><issue>12</issue><spage>1329</spage><epage>1349</epage><pages>1329-1349</pages><issn>1473-3099</issn><eissn>1474-4457</eissn><abstract>Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.
We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.
Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·05–10·16) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 1·21 million (1·16–1·27). Among HIV-positive individuals, the number of incident cases was 1·40 million (1·01–1·89) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 0·24 million (0·16–0·31). Globally, among HIV-negative individuals the age-standardised incidence of tuberculosis decreased annually at a slower rate (–1·3% [–1·5 to −1·2]) than mortality did (–4·5% [–5·0 to −4·1]) from 2006 to 2016. Among HIV-positive individuals during the same period, the rate of change in annualised age-standardised incidence was −4·0% (–4·5 to −3·7) and mortality was −8·9% (–9·5 to −8·4). Several regions had higher rates of age-standardised incidence and mortality than expected on the basis of their SDI levels in 2016. For drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the highest observed-to-expected ratios were in southern sub-Saharan Africa (13·7 for incidence and 14·9 for mortality), and the lowest ratios were in high-income North America (0·4 for incidence) and Oceania (0·3 for mortality). For multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, eastern Europe had the highest observed-to-expected ratios (67·3 for incidence and 73·0 for mortality), and high-income North America had the lowest ratios (0·4 for incidence and 0·5 for mortality).
If current trends in tuberculosis incidence continue, few countries are likely to meet the SDG target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030. Progress needs to be accelerated by improving the quality of and access to tuberculosis diagnosis and care, by developing new tools, scaling up interventions to prevent risk factors for tuberculosis, and integrating control programmes for tuberculosis and HIV.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Elsevier Ltd</pub><pmid>30507459</pmid><doi>10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30625-X</doi><tpages>21</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1473-3099 |
| ispartof | The Lancet infectious diseases, 2018-12, Vol.18 (12), p.1329-1349 |
| issn | 1473-3099 1474-4457 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_swepub_primary_oai_swepub_ki_se_483672 |
| source | Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals; SWEPUB Freely available online; ProQuest Central UK/Ireland |
| subjects | Age Autopsies Autopsy Bayesian analysis Charities Data processing Decision making Demographics Disease Drug resistance Epidemics Fatalities Fertility HIV Human immunodeficiency virus Incidence Income Infectious diseases Injuries Injury prevention Low income groups Mortality Multidrug resistance Multidrug resistant organisms Pathogens Polls & surveys Public health Quality Registration Regression analysis Risk analysis Risk factors Scaling Sociodemographics Studies Surveillance Sustainable development Trends Tuberculin Tuberculosis |
| title | Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-18T14%3A07%3A58IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_swepu&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Global,%20regional,%20and%20national%20burden%20of%20tuberculosis,%201990%E2%80%932016:%20results%20from%20the%20Global%20Burden%20of%20Diseases,%20Injuries,%20and%20Risk%20Factors%202016%20Study&rft.jtitle=The%20Lancet%20infectious%20diseases&rft.au=Kyu,%20Hmwe%20Hmwe&rft.aucorp=GBD%20Tuberculosis%20Collaborators&rft.date=2018-12-01&rft.volume=18&rft.issue=12&rft.spage=1329&rft.epage=1349&rft.pages=1329-1349&rft.issn=1473-3099&rft.eissn=1474-4457&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30625-X&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_swepu%3E2149853580%3C/proquest_swepu%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2136491045&rft_id=info:pmid/30507459&rft_els_id=S147330991830625X&rfr_iscdi=true |