Climate, Hydrology, and Nutrients Control the Seasonality of Si Concentrations in Rivers

The seasonal behavior of fluvial dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations, termed DSi regime, mediates the timing of DSi delivery to downstream waters and thus governs river biogeochemical function and aquatic community condition. Previous work identified five distinct DSi regimes across rivers spanning the Northern Hemisphere, with many rivers exhibiting multiple DSi regimes over time. Several potential drivers of DSi regime behavior have been identified at small scales, including climate, land cover, and lithology, and yet the large‐scale spatiotemporal controls on DSi regimes have not been identified. We evaluate the role of environmental variables on the behavior of DSi regimes in nearly 200 rivers across the Northern Hemisphere using random forest models. Our models aim to elucidate the controls that give rise to (a) average DSi regime behavior, (b) interannual variability in DSi regime behavior (i.e., Annual DSi regime), and (c) controls on DSi regime shape (i.e., minimum and maximum DSi concentrations). Average DSi regime behavior across the period of record was classified accurately 59% of the time, whereas Annual DSi regime behavior was classified accurately 80% of the time. Climate and primary productivity variables were important in predicting Average DSi regime behavior, whereas climate and hydrologic variables were important in predicting Annual DSi regime behavior. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were important drivers of minimum and maximum DSi concentrations, indicating that these macronutrients may be important for seasonal DSi drawdown and rebound. Our findings demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, hydrology, and nutrient availability of rivers shape the temporal availability of fluvial DSi. Plain Language Summary The amount of dissolved silicon (DSi) in rivers is an important control on numerous ecological and biogeochemical processes, such as types of algae that bloom and rates of carbon sequestration. Compared to our knowledge of other nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, we have limited understanding of what controls the timing and concentration of DSi in rivers. Previous work identified five distinct seasonal patterns of DSi concentrations in rivers across the Northern Hemisphere; here we look at the environmental variables that control these seasonal patterns. We found that rivers often have one to five seasonal patterns over time due to interannual shifts in temperature, evapotranspiration, and streamflow. In