Cost effective reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases - fuel and food consumption and negative emissions in Sweden

Reduction in emissions of green house gases (GHG) from consumption of fuel and food and implementation of negative emissions, such as forest carbon sequestration and carbon capture and storage, have been suggested in practice and literature. One challenge is the uncertainty in reductions of GHG depending on e.g stochastic weather conditions. This paper calculates cost effective combinations of the emission reductions in fuel and food and creation of negative emissions in Sweden under uncertainty by using probabilistic constraint modelling. The results show that the cost of emission reductions in fuel and food consumption are relatively expensive and carbon sequestration by forest management and conversion of arable land are low cost measures. It is also shown that the regional welfare effects at the county level are regressive, i.e. that relatively poor counties carry a large cost burden in cost effective solutions.