Prognostic model for total mortality in patients with haemodialysis from the Assessments of Survival and Cardiovascular Events (AURORA) study

. Holme I, Fellström BC, Jardin AG, Schmieder RE, Zannad F, Holdaas H (Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Oslo, Norway; British Heart Foundation Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, UK; University Hospital, Erlangen, Germany; Centre d`Investigation Clinique; Centre Hospitalier Universitaire, and Nancy Université, Nancy, France; and Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway). Prognostic model for total mortality in patients with haemodialysis from the Assessments of Survival and Cardiovascular Events (AURORA) study. J Intern Med 2012; 271: 463–471. Objectives. Risk factors of mortality in patients with haemodialysis (HD) have been identified in several studies, but few prognostic models have been developed with assessments of calibration and discrimination abilities. We used the database of the Assessment of Survival and Cardiovascular Events study to develop a prognostic model of mortality over 3–4 years. Methods. Five factors (age, albumin, C‐reactive protein, history of cardiovascular disease and diabetes) were selected from experience and forced into the regression equation. In a 67% random try‐out sample of patients, no further factors amongst 24 candidates added significance (P