Failure domain analysis and uncertainty quantification using surrogate models for steam explosion in a Nordic type BWR

•Quantitative assessment of the risk of containment failure due to steam explosion.•The effect of the steam explosion surrogate model uncertainty on risk analysis.•Analysis of the SERENA BWR benchmark scenario.•Failure domain analysis for Nordic BWR. Sever accident mitigation strategy adopted in Nordic Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) employs a deep water pool below the reactor vessel to fragment and quench core melt and provide long term cooling of the debris. One of the risks associated with this strategy is early containment failure due to ex-vessel steam explosion. Assessment of the risk of steam explosion is subject to significant (i) epistemic uncertainties in modelling and (ii) aleatory uncertainties in scenarios of melt release. For quantification of the uncertainties and the risk a full model (FM) based on TEXAS-V code and a computationally efficient surrogate model (SM) have been previously developed. FM is used to provide a database of solutions that is used for development of a SM, while SM is used in extensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. In this work, we compare the risk of containment failure with non-reinforced and reinforced hatch door for metallic and oxidic melt release scenarios. We quantify the error of SM in the approximation of the FM and assess the effect of the approximation uncertainty on risk assessment. We analyze the results and suggest a simplified approach for decision making considering predicted failure probabilities, expected costs, and scenario frequencies.