Differences in the Predicted Conditions of Shortwave Radio Communication between a Medium-Latitude Transmitter and a Receiver in the Arctic Region with the Use of Different Empirical Ionospheric Models

The predicted conditions of shortwave (SW) radio communication between a transmitter located at the midlatitudes and receivers located near the Norwegian and Barents seas are compared. The IRI-2016 and Global Dynamic Model of Ionosphere (GDMI) models developed at IZMIRAN were used to calculate the predicted conditions of radio communication; the prediction was based on calculations of the three-dimensional ray trajectories of radio waves in the geometrical optics approximation, with allowance for the anisotropy and spatial inhomogeneity of the ionospheric plasma. It was shown that the forecast of radio communication conditions calculated with the GDMI model can differ significantly from the forecast calculated with the IRI-2016 model. It was also shown that the values of the maximum usable frequency (MUF) in mid-December calculated with the GDMI and IRI-2016 models for the St. Petersburg–Longyearbyen (Spitsbergen) radio path for single-hop paths exceed the experimental MUF values by 5–20% during the day and are lower than the experimental values by 30–40% at night. At the same time, the accuracy of the MUF forecast obtained with the GDMI model for the afternoon is better than the accuracy of that obtained with the IRI-2016 model. For the rest of the day, however, the IRI-2016 model provides better MUF-prediction accuracy.