The issue of personal safety on dolomite : a probability-based evaluation with respect to transient passage in a city centre : technical paper

For the past fifty years empirical knowledge guided the development of rules regarding population density on dolomite land. The insatiable demand for land, the improvement in transportation infrastructure and the associated need for improving the functionality of towns require that these rules on the risk of personal injury and damage to assets are revisited from a more scientific perspective. Probability theory provides a basis for decision-making in this regard. SANS 1936:2012 defines development densities for different types of land usage, including non-residential improvement, high- and low-rise buildings and single-storey dwelling houses. The paper is devoted to public safety along the roads, thoroughfares and open spaces outside buildings in a heavily populated city centre as a study in "transient density" on dolomite land. People are transported through the city in a range of vehicles. Some people walk through the city and some appear in particular locations as dispersed groups. The densities at which people appear differ during peak hours, other times of the day, and at night. The overall probability of fatal injury is determined by the mutually dependent probabilities of sinkhole occurrence, appearance of the sinkhole in a particular location, appearance of the sinkhole at a particular time, coincidence with the vehicle, people being unaware of the sinkhole, people falling into the sinkhole, people not being protected by the vehicle and the relative number of fatal injuries Sinkholes are invariably caused by water-bearing services that tend to leak at isolated locations, as a result of which only one sinkhole occurs at a time in a particular stretch of land. In developed land the leaky service and the sinkhole are generally repaired soon after the sinkhole has occurred, which precludes the recurrence of sinkholes in that area for a very long period of time. The probability of sinkhole occurrence can therefore be evaluated on the basis of the binomial distribution. The infiltration regime that determines the sinkhole return period for this purpose is based on the water and wastewater reticulation infrastructure, stormwater control measures, landscaping and irrigation provisions, occurrence of impermeable pavements and dewatering protocols characteristic of a business district in a city centre.