Establishment and validation of a prediction model for the first recurrence of Budd–Chiari syndrome after endovascular treatment: a large sample size, single-center retrospective study
Objective To investigate the independent risk factors for the first recurrence after endovascular management in patients with Budd–Chiari syndrome (BCS), and to establish a prediction model for predicting recurrence in target patients. Methods BCS patients who underwent endovascular treatment in the...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Hepatology international 2023-02, Vol.17 (1), p.159-169 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 169 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 1 |
| container_start_page | 159 |
| container_title | Hepatology international |
| container_volume | 17 |
| creator | Wang, Zhongkai Wang, Ziwei Zhang, Zhiyuan Li, Jiandong Pan, Zhiyang Liu, Ang Lu, Jian Guo, Jinhe Zu, Maoheng Xu, Hao |
| description | Objective
To investigate the independent risk factors for the first recurrence after endovascular management in patients with Budd–Chiari syndrome (BCS), and to establish a prediction model for predicting recurrence in target patients.
Methods
BCS patients who underwent endovascular treatment in the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2010 to December 2015 were retrospectively examined, with their clinical, laboratory test, and imaging data collected and analyzed. Independent risk factors for recurrence were identified, and a prediction model was established and validated.
Results
A total of 450 patients met the filtering criteria, and 102 recurred during the follow-up. The median follow-up time was 87 months, ranging from 1 to 137 months. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year cumulative recurrence rate was 9.11% (6.41–11.73%), 17.35% (13.77–20.78%), 20.10% (16.30–23.72%), and 23.06% (18.86–27.04%), respectively. Liver cirrhosis, ascites, thrombosis, and all the main intrahepatic drainage veins obstructed (obstructed HV + AHV) are independent risk factors, while age is an independent protective factor. The prediction model was named MRBET. Based on the model, the risk score of each patient equals (−0.385981 * Age/10) + (0.0404184 * PT) + (0.0943423 * CRE/10) + (0.0157053 * LDH/10) + (0.592179 * LC) + (0.896034 * Ascites) + (0.691346 * Thrombosis) + (0.886741 * obstructed HV + AHV), and those in the high-risk group (risk score ≥ 1.57) were more likely to recur than those in the low-risk group (HR = 6.911,
p
|
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s12072-022-10464-y |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_pubme</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_9895038</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2758354748</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c425t-258a06a8708cf1b73279d2381bcf8838c1dded55ef477acae9f27c04659b7e353</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kkuO1DAQhiMEYoaBC7BAltiwIOBHHCcskKA1PKSR2MDacuxKt0eJHWynpbDiDtyG48xJxpkemseCjV_11V_l0l8Ujwl-QTAWLyOhWNASU1oSXNVVudwpTknL6hLzitw9nhk7KR7EeIkx5zWp7xcnrOa1YIKdFj_PY1LdYONuBJeQcgbt1WCNStY75Huk0BTAWH1zH72BAfU-oLQD1NsQEwqg5xDAaVjxt7MxV99_bHZWBYvi4kzwIyDVJwgInPF7FfU8qKwQQKW16KtcIz9sAUU1TkPe7Dd4nle3HaDUmcipAVLwcYLcxz4TaTbLw-Jer4YIj273s-LLu_PPmw_lxaf3HzdvLkpdUZ5KyhuFa9UI3OiedIJR0RrKGtLpvmlYo4kxYDiHvhJCaQVtT4XO8-RtJ4Bxdla8PuhOczeCWRsKapBTsKMKi_TKyr8jzu7k1u9l27QcsyYLPLsVCP7rDDHJ0UYNw6Ac-DlKKnjDeCWqFX36D3rp5-Dy9zIlSNtWFV87ogdK55nEAP2xGYLlag15sIbM1pA31pBLTnry5zeOKb-8kAF2AGIOuS2E37X_I3sNPP7Lww</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Open Access Repository</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2771994455</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Establishment and validation of a prediction model for the first recurrence of Budd–Chiari syndrome after endovascular treatment: a large sample size, single-center retrospective study</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>Springer Nature</source><creator>Wang, Zhongkai ; Wang, Ziwei ; Zhang, Zhiyuan ; Li, Jiandong ; Pan, Zhiyang ; Liu, Ang ; Lu, Jian ; Guo, Jinhe ; Zu, Maoheng ; Xu, Hao</creator><creatorcontrib>Wang, Zhongkai ; Wang, Ziwei ; Zhang, Zhiyuan ; Li, Jiandong ; Pan, Zhiyang ; Liu, Ang ; Lu, Jian ; Guo, Jinhe ; Zu, Maoheng ; Xu, Hao</creatorcontrib><description>Objective
To investigate the independent risk factors for the first recurrence after endovascular management in patients with Budd–Chiari syndrome (BCS), and to establish a prediction model for predicting recurrence in target patients.
Methods
BCS patients who underwent endovascular treatment in the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2010 to December 2015 were retrospectively examined, with their clinical, laboratory test, and imaging data collected and analyzed. Independent risk factors for recurrence were identified, and a prediction model was established and validated.
Results
A total of 450 patients met the filtering criteria, and 102 recurred during the follow-up. The median follow-up time was 87 months, ranging from 1 to 137 months. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year cumulative recurrence rate was 9.11% (6.41–11.73%), 17.35% (13.77–20.78%), 20.10% (16.30–23.72%), and 23.06% (18.86–27.04%), respectively. Liver cirrhosis, ascites, thrombosis, and all the main intrahepatic drainage veins obstructed (obstructed HV + AHV) are independent risk factors, while age is an independent protective factor. The prediction model was named MRBET. Based on the model, the risk score of each patient equals (−0.385981 * Age/10) + (0.0404184 * PT) + (0.0943423 * CRE/10) + (0.0157053 * LDH/10) + (0.592179 * LC) + (0.896034 * Ascites) + (0.691346 * Thrombosis) + (0.886741 * obstructed HV + AHV), and those in the high-risk group (risk score ≥ 1.57) were more likely to recur than those in the low-risk group (HR = 6.911,
p
< 0.001). The MRBET model is also available as a web tool at
https://mrbet.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp
.
Conclusion
Liver cirrhosis, ascites, thrombosis, and obstructed HV + AHV are independent risk factors for the first recurrence; age is an independent protective factor. The prediction model can effectively and conveniently predict the risk of recurrence and screen out patients at a high recurrence risk.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1936-0533</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1936-0541</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s12072-022-10464-y</identifier><identifier>PMID: 36567373</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New Delhi: Springer India</publisher><subject>Age ; Ascites ; Budd-Chiari Syndrome - therapy ; Cardiovascular system ; Child ; Cirrhosis ; Colorectal Surgery ; Health services ; Hepatology ; Humans ; Laboratory tests ; Liver ; Liver Cirrhosis ; Medicine ; Medicine & Public Health ; Original ; Original Article ; Patients ; Prediction models ; Predictions ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk analysis ; Risk factors ; Risk groups ; Sample Size ; Surgery ; Thromboembolism ; Thrombosis ; Treatment Outcome</subject><ispartof>Hepatology international, 2023-02, Vol.17 (1), p.159-169</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2022</rights><rights>2022. The Author(s).</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2022. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c425t-258a06a8708cf1b73279d2381bcf8838c1dded55ef477acae9f27c04659b7e353</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12072-022-10464-y$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12072-022-10464-y$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36567373$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Wang, Zhongkai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Ziwei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Zhiyuan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Jiandong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pan, Zhiyang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Ang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lu, Jian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guo, Jinhe</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zu, Maoheng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Hao</creatorcontrib><title>Establishment and validation of a prediction model for the first recurrence of Budd–Chiari syndrome after endovascular treatment: a large sample size, single-center retrospective study</title><title>Hepatology international</title><addtitle>Hepatol Int</addtitle><addtitle>Hepatol Int</addtitle><description>Objective
To investigate the independent risk factors for the first recurrence after endovascular management in patients with Budd–Chiari syndrome (BCS), and to establish a prediction model for predicting recurrence in target patients.
Methods
BCS patients who underwent endovascular treatment in the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2010 to December 2015 were retrospectively examined, with their clinical, laboratory test, and imaging data collected and analyzed. Independent risk factors for recurrence were identified, and a prediction model was established and validated.
Results
A total of 450 patients met the filtering criteria, and 102 recurred during the follow-up. The median follow-up time was 87 months, ranging from 1 to 137 months. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year cumulative recurrence rate was 9.11% (6.41–11.73%), 17.35% (13.77–20.78%), 20.10% (16.30–23.72%), and 23.06% (18.86–27.04%), respectively. Liver cirrhosis, ascites, thrombosis, and all the main intrahepatic drainage veins obstructed (obstructed HV + AHV) are independent risk factors, while age is an independent protective factor. The prediction model was named MRBET. Based on the model, the risk score of each patient equals (−0.385981 * Age/10) + (0.0404184 * PT) + (0.0943423 * CRE/10) + (0.0157053 * LDH/10) + (0.592179 * LC) + (0.896034 * Ascites) + (0.691346 * Thrombosis) + (0.886741 * obstructed HV + AHV), and those in the high-risk group (risk score ≥ 1.57) were more likely to recur than those in the low-risk group (HR = 6.911,
p
< 0.001). The MRBET model is also available as a web tool at
https://mrbet.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp
.
Conclusion
Liver cirrhosis, ascites, thrombosis, and obstructed HV + AHV are independent risk factors for the first recurrence; age is an independent protective factor. The prediction model can effectively and conveniently predict the risk of recurrence and screen out patients at a high recurrence risk.</description><subject>Age</subject><subject>Ascites</subject><subject>Budd-Chiari Syndrome - therapy</subject><subject>Cardiovascular system</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Cirrhosis</subject><subject>Colorectal Surgery</subject><subject>Health services</subject><subject>Hepatology</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Laboratory tests</subject><subject>Liver</subject><subject>Liver Cirrhosis</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>Medicine & Public Health</subject><subject>Original</subject><subject>Original Article</subject><subject>Patients</subject><subject>Prediction models</subject><subject>Predictions</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>Risk analysis</subject><subject>Risk factors</subject><subject>Risk groups</subject><subject>Sample Size</subject><subject>Surgery</subject><subject>Thromboembolism</subject><subject>Thrombosis</subject><subject>Treatment Outcome</subject><issn>1936-0533</issn><issn>1936-0541</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2023</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>C6C</sourceid><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kkuO1DAQhiMEYoaBC7BAltiwIOBHHCcskKA1PKSR2MDacuxKt0eJHWynpbDiDtyG48xJxpkemseCjV_11V_l0l8Ujwl-QTAWLyOhWNASU1oSXNVVudwpTknL6hLzitw9nhk7KR7EeIkx5zWp7xcnrOa1YIKdFj_PY1LdYONuBJeQcgbt1WCNStY75Huk0BTAWH1zH72BAfU-oLQD1NsQEwqg5xDAaVjxt7MxV99_bHZWBYvi4kzwIyDVJwgInPF7FfU8qKwQQKW16KtcIz9sAUU1TkPe7Dd4nle3HaDUmcipAVLwcYLcxz4TaTbLw-Jer4YIj273s-LLu_PPmw_lxaf3HzdvLkpdUZ5KyhuFa9UI3OiedIJR0RrKGtLpvmlYo4kxYDiHvhJCaQVtT4XO8-RtJ4Bxdla8PuhOczeCWRsKapBTsKMKi_TKyr8jzu7k1u9l27QcsyYLPLsVCP7rDDHJ0UYNw6Ac-DlKKnjDeCWqFX36D3rp5-Dy9zIlSNtWFV87ogdK55nEAP2xGYLlag15sIbM1pA31pBLTnry5zeOKb-8kAF2AGIOuS2E37X_I3sNPP7Lww</recordid><startdate>20230201</startdate><enddate>20230201</enddate><creator>Wang, Zhongkai</creator><creator>Wang, Ziwei</creator><creator>Zhang, Zhiyuan</creator><creator>Li, Jiandong</creator><creator>Pan, Zhiyang</creator><creator>Liu, Ang</creator><creator>Lu, Jian</creator><creator>Guo, Jinhe</creator><creator>Zu, Maoheng</creator><creator>Xu, Hao</creator><general>Springer India</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>C6C</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7U7</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20230201</creationdate><title>Establishment and validation of a prediction model for the first recurrence of Budd–Chiari syndrome after endovascular treatment: a large sample size, single-center retrospective study</title><author>Wang, Zhongkai ; Wang, Ziwei ; Zhang, Zhiyuan ; Li, Jiandong ; Pan, Zhiyang ; Liu, Ang ; Lu, Jian ; Guo, Jinhe ; Zu, Maoheng ; Xu, Hao</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c425t-258a06a8708cf1b73279d2381bcf8838c1dded55ef477acae9f27c04659b7e353</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2023</creationdate><topic>Age</topic><topic>Ascites</topic><topic>Budd-Chiari Syndrome - therapy</topic><topic>Cardiovascular system</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Cirrhosis</topic><topic>Colorectal Surgery</topic><topic>Health services</topic><topic>Hepatology</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Laboratory tests</topic><topic>Liver</topic><topic>Liver Cirrhosis</topic><topic>Medicine</topic><topic>Medicine & Public Health</topic><topic>Original</topic><topic>Original Article</topic><topic>Patients</topic><topic>Prediction models</topic><topic>Predictions</topic><topic>Retrospective Studies</topic><topic>Risk analysis</topic><topic>Risk factors</topic><topic>Risk groups</topic><topic>Sample Size</topic><topic>Surgery</topic><topic>Thromboembolism</topic><topic>Thrombosis</topic><topic>Treatment Outcome</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Wang, Zhongkai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Ziwei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Zhiyuan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Jiandong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pan, Zhiyang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Ang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lu, Jian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guo, Jinhe</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zu, Maoheng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Hao</creatorcontrib><collection>SpringerOpen</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Toxicology Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Hepatology international</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Wang, Zhongkai</au><au>Wang, Ziwei</au><au>Zhang, Zhiyuan</au><au>Li, Jiandong</au><au>Pan, Zhiyang</au><au>Liu, Ang</au><au>Lu, Jian</au><au>Guo, Jinhe</au><au>Zu, Maoheng</au><au>Xu, Hao</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Establishment and validation of a prediction model for the first recurrence of Budd–Chiari syndrome after endovascular treatment: a large sample size, single-center retrospective study</atitle><jtitle>Hepatology international</jtitle><stitle>Hepatol Int</stitle><addtitle>Hepatol Int</addtitle><date>2023-02-01</date><risdate>2023</risdate><volume>17</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>159</spage><epage>169</epage><pages>159-169</pages><issn>1936-0533</issn><eissn>1936-0541</eissn><abstract>Objective
To investigate the independent risk factors for the first recurrence after endovascular management in patients with Budd–Chiari syndrome (BCS), and to establish a prediction model for predicting recurrence in target patients.
Methods
BCS patients who underwent endovascular treatment in the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2010 to December 2015 were retrospectively examined, with their clinical, laboratory test, and imaging data collected and analyzed. Independent risk factors for recurrence were identified, and a prediction model was established and validated.
Results
A total of 450 patients met the filtering criteria, and 102 recurred during the follow-up. The median follow-up time was 87 months, ranging from 1 to 137 months. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year cumulative recurrence rate was 9.11% (6.41–11.73%), 17.35% (13.77–20.78%), 20.10% (16.30–23.72%), and 23.06% (18.86–27.04%), respectively. Liver cirrhosis, ascites, thrombosis, and all the main intrahepatic drainage veins obstructed (obstructed HV + AHV) are independent risk factors, while age is an independent protective factor. The prediction model was named MRBET. Based on the model, the risk score of each patient equals (−0.385981 * Age/10) + (0.0404184 * PT) + (0.0943423 * CRE/10) + (0.0157053 * LDH/10) + (0.592179 * LC) + (0.896034 * Ascites) + (0.691346 * Thrombosis) + (0.886741 * obstructed HV + AHV), and those in the high-risk group (risk score ≥ 1.57) were more likely to recur than those in the low-risk group (HR = 6.911,
p
< 0.001). The MRBET model is also available as a web tool at
https://mrbet.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp
.
Conclusion
Liver cirrhosis, ascites, thrombosis, and obstructed HV + AHV are independent risk factors for the first recurrence; age is an independent protective factor. The prediction model can effectively and conveniently predict the risk of recurrence and screen out patients at a high recurrence risk.</abstract><cop>New Delhi</cop><pub>Springer India</pub><pmid>36567373</pmid><doi>10.1007/s12072-022-10464-y</doi><tpages>11</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1936-0533 |
| ispartof | Hepatology international, 2023-02, Vol.17 (1), p.159-169 |
| issn | 1936-0533 1936-0541 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_9895038 |
| source | MEDLINE; Springer Nature |
| subjects | Age Ascites Budd-Chiari Syndrome - therapy Cardiovascular system Child Cirrhosis Colorectal Surgery Health services Hepatology Humans Laboratory tests Liver Liver Cirrhosis Medicine Medicine & Public Health Original Original Article Patients Prediction models Predictions Retrospective Studies Risk analysis Risk factors Risk groups Sample Size Surgery Thromboembolism Thrombosis Treatment Outcome |
| title | Establishment and validation of a prediction model for the first recurrence of Budd–Chiari syndrome after endovascular treatment: a large sample size, single-center retrospective study |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-02-14T16%3A10%3A09IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_pubme&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Establishment%20and%20validation%20of%20a%20prediction%20model%20for%20the%20first%20recurrence%20of%20Budd%E2%80%93Chiari%20syndrome%20after%20endovascular%20treatment:%20a%20large%20sample%20size,%20single-center%20retrospective%20study&rft.jtitle=Hepatology%20international&rft.au=Wang,%20Zhongkai&rft.date=2023-02-01&rft.volume=17&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=159&rft.epage=169&rft.pages=159-169&rft.issn=1936-0533&rft.eissn=1936-0541&rft_id=info:doi/10.1007/s12072-022-10464-y&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_pubme%3E2758354748%3C/proquest_pubme%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2771994455&rft_id=info:pmid/36567373&rfr_iscdi=true |