Novel Personalized Score Predicts Risk for Postoperative Biliary Leak in Liver Surgery—a Retrospective Database Analysis

Background The number of liver resections is constantly rising over the last decades. Despite the reduction of overall mortality and morbidity in liver surgery, biliary leakage is still a relevant postoperative complication that can lead to a fatal postoperative course. Aim of this analysis is the identification of specific risk factors for postoperative biliary complications after liver resections and the development of a predictive biliary leakage risk score. Methods A single-center, retrospective analysis of 844 liver resections performed in the Department of Visceral, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, Technische Universität Dresden, between 1/2013 and 12/2019 is conducted to identify risk factors for postoperative biliary leakage and a risk score for biliary leakage after hepatectomy is established based on multivariate regression. The score has been validated by an independent validation cohort consisting of 142 patients. Results Overall morbidity is 43.1% with 36% surgical complications and an overall mortality of 4.3%. Biliary leakage occurred in 15.8% of patients. A predictive score for postoperative biliary leakage based on age, major resection, pretreatment with FOLFOX/cetuximab and operating time is created. Patients are stratified to low ( 15%) risk with a sensitivity of 67.4% and a specificity of 70.7% in development cohort and a specificity of 68.2% and sensitivity of 75.8% in validation cohort. Conclusions The presented score is robust and has been validated in an independent patient cohort. Depending on the calculated risk, prevention or early treatment can be initiated to avoid bile leakage and to improve postoperative course.