Shorter Incubation Period among Unvaccinated Delta Variant Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Japan
Few studies have assessed incubation periods of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Delta variant. This study aimed to elucidate the transmission dynamics, especially the incubation period, for the Delta variant compared with non-Delta strains. We studied unvaccinated coronavirus dis...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | International journal of environmental research and public health 2022-01, Vol.19 (3), p.1127 |
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| creator | Ogata, Tsuyoshi Tanaka, Hideo Irie, Fujiko Hirayama, Atsushi Takahashi, Yuki |
| description | Few studies have assessed incubation periods of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Delta variant. This study aimed to elucidate the transmission dynamics, especially the incubation period, for the Delta variant compared with non-Delta strains. We studied unvaccinated coronavirus disease 2019 patients with definite single exposure date from August 2020 to September 2021 in Japan. The incubation periods were calculated and compared by Mann-Whitney U test for Delta (with L452R mutation) and non-Delta cases. We estimated mean and percentiles of incubation period by fitting parametric distribution to data in the Bayesian statistical framework. We enrolled 214 patients (121 Delta and 103 non-Delta cases) with one specific date of exposure to the virus. The mean incubation period was 3.7 days and 4.9 days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively (
-value = 0.000). When lognormal distributions were fitted, the estimated mean incubation periods were 3.7 (95% credible interval (CI) 3.4-4.0) and 5.0 (95% CI 4.5-5.6) days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively. The estimated 97.5th percentile of incubation period was 6.9 (95% CI 5.9-8.0) days and 10.4 (95% CI 8.6-12.7) days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively. Unvaccinated Delta variant cases had shorter incubation periods than non-Delta variant cases. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.3390/ijerph19031127 |
| format | Article |
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-value = 0.000). When lognormal distributions were fitted, the estimated mean incubation periods were 3.7 (95% credible interval (CI) 3.4-4.0) and 5.0 (95% CI 4.5-5.6) days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively. The estimated 97.5th percentile of incubation period was 6.9 (95% CI 5.9-8.0) days and 10.4 (95% CI 8.6-12.7) days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively. Unvaccinated Delta variant cases had shorter incubation periods than non-Delta variant cases.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1660-4601</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1661-7827</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1660-4601</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19031127</identifier><identifier>PMID: 35162151</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Switzerland: MDPI AG</publisher><subject>Antigens ; Bayes Theorem ; Bayesian analysis ; Contact tracing ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 vaccines ; Disease transmission ; Epidemics ; Humans ; Immunization ; Infections ; Infectious Disease Incubation Period ; Infectious diseases ; Japan - epidemiology ; Jurisdiction ; Mutation ; Pandemics ; Patients ; Public health ; Quarantine ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Vaccination - statistics & numerical data ; Viruses</subject><ispartof>International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022-01, Vol.19 (3), p.1127</ispartof><rights>2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2022 by the authors. 2022</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c484t-693cf4c905b7d1f4d782fd22071ce3f6eb65fda433efb28228bc7993103e66983</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c484t-693cf4c905b7d1f4d782fd22071ce3f6eb65fda433efb28228bc7993103e66983</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8834809/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8834809/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,881,27901,27902,53766,53768</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35162151$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Ogata, Tsuyoshi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tanaka, Hideo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Irie, Fujiko</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hirayama, Atsushi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Takahashi, Yuki</creatorcontrib><title>Shorter Incubation Period among Unvaccinated Delta Variant Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Japan</title><title>International journal of environmental research and public health</title><addtitle>Int J Environ Res Public Health</addtitle><description>Few studies have assessed incubation periods of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Delta variant. This study aimed to elucidate the transmission dynamics, especially the incubation period, for the Delta variant compared with non-Delta strains. We studied unvaccinated coronavirus disease 2019 patients with definite single exposure date from August 2020 to September 2021 in Japan. The incubation periods were calculated and compared by Mann-Whitney U test for Delta (with L452R mutation) and non-Delta cases. We estimated mean and percentiles of incubation period by fitting parametric distribution to data in the Bayesian statistical framework. We enrolled 214 patients (121 Delta and 103 non-Delta cases) with one specific date of exposure to the virus. The mean incubation period was 3.7 days and 4.9 days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively (
-value = 0.000). When lognormal distributions were fitted, the estimated mean incubation periods were 3.7 (95% credible interval (CI) 3.4-4.0) and 5.0 (95% CI 4.5-5.6) days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively. The estimated 97.5th percentile of incubation period was 6.9 (95% CI 5.9-8.0) days and 10.4 (95% CI 8.6-12.7) days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively. Unvaccinated Delta variant cases had shorter incubation periods than non-Delta variant cases.</description><subject>Antigens</subject><subject>Bayes Theorem</subject><subject>Bayesian analysis</subject><subject>Contact tracing</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>COVID-19 vaccines</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Immunization</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Infectious Disease Incubation Period</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Japan - epidemiology</subject><subject>Jurisdiction</subject><subject>Mutation</subject><subject>Pandemics</subject><subject>Patients</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Quarantine</subject><subject>SARS-CoV-2</subject><subject>Severe acute respiratory syndrome</subject><subject>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</subject><subject>Vaccination - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Viruses</subject><issn>1660-4601</issn><issn>1661-7827</issn><issn>1660-4601</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2022</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNpdkc1PGzEQxa2qqEDotcfKUi-9JPhj12tfKlWhQBASSJRerVnvLHG0sVN7NxL_PRsBEXCakeY3T-_pEfKNs5mUhp36FabNkhsmORfVJ3LElWLTQjH--c1-SI5zXjEmdaHMF3IoS64EL_kRwbtlTD0mughuqKH3MdBbTD42FNYxPND7sAXnfIAeG3qGXQ_0HyQPoafzmGKArU9Dpmc-I2SkgnFDb0cdDH2mPtAr2EA4IQctdBm_vswJuT__83d-Ob2-uVjMf19PXaGLfqqMdG3hDCvrquFt0VRatI0QrOIOZauwVmXbQCEltrXQQujaVcZIziQqZbSckF_PupuhXmPjRhMJOrtJfg3p0Ubw9v0l-KV9iFurtSw0M6PAzxeBFP8PmHu79tlh10HAOGQrlDBMyVJVI_rjA7qKQwpjvB1VlVJVIzkhs2fKpZhzwnZvhjO7a9C-b3B8-P42wh5_rUw-AdpemFM</recordid><startdate>20220120</startdate><enddate>20220120</enddate><creator>Ogata, Tsuyoshi</creator><creator>Tanaka, Hideo</creator><creator>Irie, Fujiko</creator><creator>Hirayama, Atsushi</creator><creator>Takahashi, Yuki</creator><general>MDPI AG</general><general>MDPI</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>COVID</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20220120</creationdate><title>Shorter Incubation Period among Unvaccinated Delta Variant Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Japan</title><author>Ogata, Tsuyoshi ; Tanaka, Hideo ; Irie, Fujiko ; Hirayama, Atsushi ; Takahashi, Yuki</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c484t-693cf4c905b7d1f4d782fd22071ce3f6eb65fda433efb28228bc7993103e66983</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Antigens</topic><topic>Bayes Theorem</topic><topic>Bayesian analysis</topic><topic>Contact tracing</topic><topic>Coronaviruses</topic><topic>COVID-19</topic><topic>COVID-19 vaccines</topic><topic>Disease transmission</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Immunization</topic><topic>Infections</topic><topic>Infectious Disease Incubation Period</topic><topic>Infectious diseases</topic><topic>Japan - epidemiology</topic><topic>Jurisdiction</topic><topic>Mutation</topic><topic>Pandemics</topic><topic>Patients</topic><topic>Public health</topic><topic>Quarantine</topic><topic>SARS-CoV-2</topic><topic>Severe acute respiratory syndrome</topic><topic>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</topic><topic>Vaccination - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Viruses</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Ogata, Tsuyoshi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tanaka, Hideo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Irie, Fujiko</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hirayama, Atsushi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Takahashi, Yuki</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>Coronavirus Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>International journal of environmental research and public health</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Ogata, Tsuyoshi</au><au>Tanaka, Hideo</au><au>Irie, Fujiko</au><au>Hirayama, Atsushi</au><au>Takahashi, Yuki</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Shorter Incubation Period among Unvaccinated Delta Variant Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Japan</atitle><jtitle>International journal of environmental research and public health</jtitle><addtitle>Int J Environ Res Public Health</addtitle><date>2022-01-20</date><risdate>2022</risdate><volume>19</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>1127</spage><pages>1127-</pages><issn>1660-4601</issn><issn>1661-7827</issn><eissn>1660-4601</eissn><abstract>Few studies have assessed incubation periods of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Delta variant. This study aimed to elucidate the transmission dynamics, especially the incubation period, for the Delta variant compared with non-Delta strains. We studied unvaccinated coronavirus disease 2019 patients with definite single exposure date from August 2020 to September 2021 in Japan. The incubation periods were calculated and compared by Mann-Whitney U test for Delta (with L452R mutation) and non-Delta cases. We estimated mean and percentiles of incubation period by fitting parametric distribution to data in the Bayesian statistical framework. We enrolled 214 patients (121 Delta and 103 non-Delta cases) with one specific date of exposure to the virus. The mean incubation period was 3.7 days and 4.9 days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively (
-value = 0.000). When lognormal distributions were fitted, the estimated mean incubation periods were 3.7 (95% credible interval (CI) 3.4-4.0) and 5.0 (95% CI 4.5-5.6) days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively. The estimated 97.5th percentile of incubation period was 6.9 (95% CI 5.9-8.0) days and 10.4 (95% CI 8.6-12.7) days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively. Unvaccinated Delta variant cases had shorter incubation periods than non-Delta variant cases.</abstract><cop>Switzerland</cop><pub>MDPI AG</pub><pmid>35162151</pmid><doi>10.3390/ijerph19031127</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Antigens Bayes Theorem Bayesian analysis Contact tracing Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 vaccines Disease transmission Epidemics Humans Immunization Infections Infectious Disease Incubation Period Infectious diseases Japan - epidemiology Jurisdiction Mutation Pandemics Patients Public health Quarantine SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Vaccination - statistics & numerical data Viruses |
| title | Shorter Incubation Period among Unvaccinated Delta Variant Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Japan |
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