Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults
Aims/hypothesis Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region. Methods Incidence rates...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Diabetologia 2021-12, Vol.64 (12), p.2741-2750 |
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| creator | Green, Anders Hede, Simone M. Patterson, Christopher C. Wild, Sarah H. Imperatore, Giuseppina Roglic, Gojka Beran, David |
| description | Aims/hypothesis
Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region.
Methods
Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children (available from 94 countries) from the IDF Atlas were used and extrapolated to countries without data. Age-specific incidence rates in adults (only known across full age range for fewer than ten countries) were obtained by applying scaling ratios for each adult age group relative to the incidence rate in children. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality rate between countries from United Nations demographic data. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence and disease duration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to quantify the impact of alternative assumptions and model inputs.
Results
Global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively, in 2017. High-income countries, with 17% of the global population, accounted for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia, which has the largest proportion of the world’s population (60%), had the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases of type 1 diabetes. Globally, 6%, 35%, 43% and 16% of prevalent cases were in the age groups 0–14, 15–39, 40–64 and 65+ years, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the estimates could deviate by ±15%.
Conclusions
/
interpretation
Globally, type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations in 2017. This study provides information for the development of healthcare and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. The estimates need further validation due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods.
Graphical abstract |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00125-021-05571-8 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_pubme</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_8563635</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2578766976</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-e8ac151352795854a1f90a0907aaccc619418183c82552c6296db1e532af98ec3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kU9v1DAQxS1ERZfCF-CAInHhEvDYGf_hgFRV0FaqxKVI3Mys42xTeZPFTir12-NtSqEcerJG7zfPb_QYewP8A3CuP2bOQWDNBdQcUUNtnrEVNFLUvBHmOVvt9RqM-nHIXuZ8zTmX2KgX7FA2aK1CXLGfl7e7UEHV9rQOU8hVP1SCg_5UbeK4pliFPPVb2itjV0Tft2GYKhraapfCDcX95Ckvm_6qj20Kw51O7Ryn_IoddBRzeH3_HrHvX79cnpzVF99Oz0-OL2qPDZ_qYMgDgkShLRpsCDrLiVuuibz3CmwDBoz0RiAKr4RV7RoCSkGdNcHLI_Z58d3N621ofcmVKLpdKunTrRupd4-Vob9ym_HGGVRSSSwG7-8N0vhrLme7bZ99iJGGMM7ZCdRGK2W1Kui7_9DrcU5DOa9QFoyWJWWhxEL5NOacQvcQBrjbF-iWAl0p0N0V6ExZevvvGQ8rfxorgFyAXKRhE9Lfv5-w_Q1udqUn</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Open Access Repository</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2591873825</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings</source><creator>Green, Anders ; Hede, Simone M. ; Patterson, Christopher C. ; Wild, Sarah H. ; Imperatore, Giuseppina ; Roglic, Gojka ; Beran, David</creator><creatorcontrib>Green, Anders ; Hede, Simone M. ; Patterson, Christopher C. ; Wild, Sarah H. ; Imperatore, Giuseppina ; Roglic, Gojka ; Beran, David</creatorcontrib><description>Aims/hypothesis
Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region.
Methods
Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children (available from 94 countries) from the IDF Atlas were used and extrapolated to countries without data. Age-specific incidence rates in adults (only known across full age range for fewer than ten countries) were obtained by applying scaling ratios for each adult age group relative to the incidence rate in children. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality rate between countries from United Nations demographic data. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence and disease duration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to quantify the impact of alternative assumptions and model inputs.
Results
Global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively, in 2017. High-income countries, with 17% of the global population, accounted for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia, which has the largest proportion of the world’s population (60%), had the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases of type 1 diabetes. Globally, 6%, 35%, 43% and 16% of prevalent cases were in the age groups 0–14, 15–39, 40–64 and 65+ years, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the estimates could deviate by ±15%.
Conclusions
/
interpretation
Globally, type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations in 2017. This study provides information for the development of healthcare and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. The estimates need further validation due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods.
Graphical abstract</description><identifier>ISSN: 0012-186X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1432-0428</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00125-021-05571-8</identifier><identifier>PMID: 34599655</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>Adult ; Adults ; Age ; Age groups ; Child ; Children ; Diabetes ; Diabetes mellitus (insulin dependent) ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - epidemiology ; Epidemiology ; Estimates ; Global Health ; Human Physiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Income ; Infant, Newborn ; Internal Medicine ; Medicine ; Medicine & Public Health ; Metabolic Diseases ; Pediatrics ; Population studies ; Prevalence ; Sensitivity analysis</subject><ispartof>Diabetologia, 2021-12, Vol.64 (12), p.2741-2750</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2021</rights><rights>2021. The Author(s).</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2021. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-e8ac151352795854a1f90a0907aaccc619418183c82552c6296db1e532af98ec3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-e8ac151352795854a1f90a0907aaccc619418183c82552c6296db1e532af98ec3</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-7824-2569 ; 0000-0002-5059-3655 ; 0000-0003-3001-1600 ; 0000-0001-7229-3920</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00125-021-05571-8$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00125-021-05571-8$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,27923,27924,41487,42556,51318</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34599655$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Green, Anders</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hede, Simone M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Patterson, Christopher C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wild, Sarah H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Imperatore, Giuseppina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roglic, Gojka</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Beran, David</creatorcontrib><title>Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults</title><title>Diabetologia</title><addtitle>Diabetologia</addtitle><addtitle>Diabetologia</addtitle><description>Aims/hypothesis
Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region.
Methods
Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children (available from 94 countries) from the IDF Atlas were used and extrapolated to countries without data. Age-specific incidence rates in adults (only known across full age range for fewer than ten countries) were obtained by applying scaling ratios for each adult age group relative to the incidence rate in children. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality rate between countries from United Nations demographic data. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence and disease duration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to quantify the impact of alternative assumptions and model inputs.
Results
Global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively, in 2017. High-income countries, with 17% of the global population, accounted for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia, which has the largest proportion of the world’s population (60%), had the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases of type 1 diabetes. Globally, 6%, 35%, 43% and 16% of prevalent cases were in the age groups 0–14, 15–39, 40–64 and 65+ years, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the estimates could deviate by ±15%.
Conclusions
/
interpretation
Globally, type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations in 2017. This study provides information for the development of healthcare and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. The estimates need further validation due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods.
Graphical abstract</description><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Adults</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Age groups</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Children</subject><subject>Diabetes</subject><subject>Diabetes mellitus (insulin dependent)</subject><subject>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - epidemiology</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Estimates</subject><subject>Global Health</subject><subject>Human Physiology</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Income</subject><subject>Infant, Newborn</subject><subject>Internal Medicine</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>Medicine & Public Health</subject><subject>Metabolic Diseases</subject><subject>Pediatrics</subject><subject>Population studies</subject><subject>Prevalence</subject><subject>Sensitivity analysis</subject><issn>0012-186X</issn><issn>1432-0428</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>C6C</sourceid><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kU9v1DAQxS1ERZfCF-CAInHhEvDYGf_hgFRV0FaqxKVI3Mys42xTeZPFTir12-NtSqEcerJG7zfPb_QYewP8A3CuP2bOQWDNBdQcUUNtnrEVNFLUvBHmOVvt9RqM-nHIXuZ8zTmX2KgX7FA2aK1CXLGfl7e7UEHV9rQOU8hVP1SCg_5UbeK4pliFPPVb2itjV0Tft2GYKhraapfCDcX95Ckvm_6qj20Kw51O7Ryn_IoddBRzeH3_HrHvX79cnpzVF99Oz0-OL2qPDZ_qYMgDgkShLRpsCDrLiVuuibz3CmwDBoz0RiAKr4RV7RoCSkGdNcHLI_Z58d3N621ofcmVKLpdKunTrRupd4-Vob9ym_HGGVRSSSwG7-8N0vhrLme7bZ99iJGGMM7ZCdRGK2W1Kui7_9DrcU5DOa9QFoyWJWWhxEL5NOacQvcQBrjbF-iWAl0p0N0V6ExZevvvGQ8rfxorgFyAXKRhE9Lfv5-w_Q1udqUn</recordid><startdate>20211201</startdate><enddate>20211201</enddate><creator>Green, Anders</creator><creator>Hede, Simone M.</creator><creator>Patterson, Christopher C.</creator><creator>Wild, Sarah H.</creator><creator>Imperatore, Giuseppina</creator><creator>Roglic, Gojka</creator><creator>Beran, David</creator><general>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>C6C</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7824-2569</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5059-3655</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3001-1600</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7229-3920</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20211201</creationdate><title>Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults</title><author>Green, Anders ; Hede, Simone M. ; Patterson, Christopher C. ; Wild, Sarah H. ; Imperatore, Giuseppina ; Roglic, Gojka ; Beran, David</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-e8ac151352795854a1f90a0907aaccc619418183c82552c6296db1e532af98ec3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Adults</topic><topic>Age</topic><topic>Age groups</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Children</topic><topic>Diabetes</topic><topic>Diabetes mellitus (insulin dependent)</topic><topic>Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - epidemiology</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Estimates</topic><topic>Global Health</topic><topic>Human Physiology</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Income</topic><topic>Infant, Newborn</topic><topic>Internal Medicine</topic><topic>Medicine</topic><topic>Medicine & Public Health</topic><topic>Metabolic Diseases</topic><topic>Pediatrics</topic><topic>Population studies</topic><topic>Prevalence</topic><topic>Sensitivity analysis</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Green, Anders</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hede, Simone M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Patterson, Christopher C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wild, Sarah H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Imperatore, Giuseppina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roglic, Gojka</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Beran, David</creatorcontrib><collection>Springer Nature OA Free Journals</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Public Health Database</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Diabetologia</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Green, Anders</au><au>Hede, Simone M.</au><au>Patterson, Christopher C.</au><au>Wild, Sarah H.</au><au>Imperatore, Giuseppina</au><au>Roglic, Gojka</au><au>Beran, David</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults</atitle><jtitle>Diabetologia</jtitle><stitle>Diabetologia</stitle><addtitle>Diabetologia</addtitle><date>2021-12-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>64</volume><issue>12</issue><spage>2741</spage><epage>2750</epage><pages>2741-2750</pages><issn>0012-186X</issn><eissn>1432-0428</eissn><abstract>Aims/hypothesis
Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region.
Methods
Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children (available from 94 countries) from the IDF Atlas were used and extrapolated to countries without data. Age-specific incidence rates in adults (only known across full age range for fewer than ten countries) were obtained by applying scaling ratios for each adult age group relative to the incidence rate in children. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality rate between countries from United Nations demographic data. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence and disease duration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to quantify the impact of alternative assumptions and model inputs.
Results
Global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively, in 2017. High-income countries, with 17% of the global population, accounted for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia, which has the largest proportion of the world’s population (60%), had the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases of type 1 diabetes. Globally, 6%, 35%, 43% and 16% of prevalent cases were in the age groups 0–14, 15–39, 40–64 and 65+ years, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the estimates could deviate by ±15%.
Conclusions
/
interpretation
Globally, type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations in 2017. This study provides information for the development of healthcare and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. The estimates need further validation due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods.
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| subjects | Adult Adults Age Age groups Child Children Diabetes Diabetes mellitus (insulin dependent) Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - epidemiology Epidemiology Estimates Global Health Human Physiology Humans Incidence Income Infant, Newborn Internal Medicine Medicine Medicine & Public Health Metabolic Diseases Pediatrics Population studies Prevalence Sensitivity analysis |
| title | Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults |
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