Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China
Previous studies have reported that temperature is the main meteorological factor associated with influenza activity. This study used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore the relationship between temperature and influenza activity in China. From the national perspective, the average tempera...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | International journal of environmental research and public health 2021-10, Vol.18 (20), p.10846 |
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| container_title | International journal of environmental research and public health |
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| creator | Chen, Can Zhang, Xiaobao Jiang, Daixi Yan, Danying Guan, Zhou Zhou, Yuqing Liu, Xiaoxiao Huang, Chenyang Ding, Cheng Lan, Lei Huang, Xihui Li, Lanjuan Yang, Shigui |
| description | Previous studies have reported that temperature is the main meteorological factor associated with influenza activity. This study used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore the relationship between temperature and influenza activity in China. From the national perspective, the average temperature (AT) had an approximately negative linear correlation with the incidence of influenza, as well as a positive rate of influenza H1N1 virus (A/H1N1). Every degree that the monthly AT rose, the influenza cases decreased by 2.49% (95%CI: 1.24%–3.72%). The risk of influenza cases reached a peak at −5.35 °C with RRs of 2.14 (95%CI: 1.38–3.33) and the monthly AT in the range of −5.35 °C to 18.31 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Every degree that the weekly AT rose, the positive rate of A/H1N1 decreased by 5.28% (95%CI: 0.35%–9.96%). The risk of A/H1N1 reached a peak at −3.14 °C with RRs of 4.88 (95%CI: 1.01–23.75) and the weekly AT in the range of −3.14 °C to 17.25 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Our study found that AT is negatively associated with influenza activity, especially for A/H1N1. These findings indicate that temperature could be integrated into the current influenza surveillance system to develop early warning systems to better predict and prepare for the risks of influenza. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.3390/ijerph182010846 |
| format | Article |
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This study used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore the relationship between temperature and influenza activity in China. From the national perspective, the average temperature (AT) had an approximately negative linear correlation with the incidence of influenza, as well as a positive rate of influenza H1N1 virus (A/H1N1). Every degree that the monthly AT rose, the influenza cases decreased by 2.49% (95%CI: 1.24%–3.72%). The risk of influenza cases reached a peak at −5.35 °C with RRs of 2.14 (95%CI: 1.38–3.33) and the monthly AT in the range of −5.35 °C to 18.31 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Every degree that the weekly AT rose, the positive rate of A/H1N1 decreased by 5.28% (95%CI: 0.35%–9.96%). The risk of A/H1N1 reached a peak at −3.14 °C with RRs of 4.88 (95%CI: 1.01–23.75) and the weekly AT in the range of −3.14 °C to 17.25 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Our study found that AT is negatively associated with influenza activity, especially for A/H1N1. These findings indicate that temperature could be integrated into the current influenza surveillance system to develop early warning systems to better predict and prepare for the risks of influenza.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1660-4601</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1661-7827</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1660-4601</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182010846</identifier><identifier>PMID: 34682590</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Basel: MDPI AG</publisher><subject>Age groups ; Health surveillance ; Infectious diseases ; Public health ; Swine flu ; Viruses ; Warning systems ; Weather</subject><ispartof>International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021-10, Vol.18 (20), p.10846</ispartof><rights>2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2021 by the authors. 2021</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c398t-394fd5718ba262b7ba1be2256879f2f8eec73e78d28685343d6d61c9a8c992bb3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c398t-394fd5718ba262b7ba1be2256879f2f8eec73e78d28685343d6d61c9a8c992bb3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8535740/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8535740/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,881,27901,27902,53766,53768</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Chen, Can</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Xiaobao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jiang, Daixi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yan, Danying</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guan, Zhou</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhou, Yuqing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Xiaoxiao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Huang, Chenyang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ding, Cheng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lan, Lei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Huang, Xihui</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Lanjuan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Shigui</creatorcontrib><title>Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China</title><title>International journal of environmental research and public health</title><description>Previous studies have reported that temperature is the main meteorological factor associated with influenza activity. This study used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore the relationship between temperature and influenza activity in China. From the national perspective, the average temperature (AT) had an approximately negative linear correlation with the incidence of influenza, as well as a positive rate of influenza H1N1 virus (A/H1N1). Every degree that the monthly AT rose, the influenza cases decreased by 2.49% (95%CI: 1.24%–3.72%). The risk of influenza cases reached a peak at −5.35 °C with RRs of 2.14 (95%CI: 1.38–3.33) and the monthly AT in the range of −5.35 °C to 18.31 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Every degree that the weekly AT rose, the positive rate of A/H1N1 decreased by 5.28% (95%CI: 0.35%–9.96%). The risk of A/H1N1 reached a peak at −3.14 °C with RRs of 4.88 (95%CI: 1.01–23.75) and the weekly AT in the range of −3.14 °C to 17.25 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Our study found that AT is negatively associated with influenza activity, especially for A/H1N1. These findings indicate that temperature could be integrated into the current influenza surveillance system to develop early warning systems to better predict and prepare for the risks of influenza.</description><subject>Age groups</subject><subject>Health surveillance</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Swine flu</subject><subject>Viruses</subject><subject>Warning systems</subject><subject>Weather</subject><issn>1660-4601</issn><issn>1661-7827</issn><issn>1660-4601</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNpdkctLxDAQh4Movs9eA168rObRpokHYVl8gejB9WpI06mbpU3XJF1Z_3qrK6KeZmC--Rjmh9ARJaecK3Lm5hAWMyoZoURmYgPtUiHIKBOEbv7qd9BejHNC-MCobbTDMyFZrsgueh7H2Flnkut8xCWkNwCPp9AuIJjUB8DGV_jW100P_t3gsU1u6dLqHI_x_deWafDUtYAfITiI-DH11Qo7jycz580B2qpNE-Hwu-6jp6vL6eRmdPdwfTsZ340sVzKNuMrqKi-oLA0TrCxKQ0tgLBeyUDWrJYAtOBSyYlLInGe8EpWgVhlplWJlyffRxdq76MsWKgs-BdPoRXCtCSvdGaf_Tryb6ZduqQdbXmRkEJx8C0L32kNMunXRQtMYD10fNctlVkhBWT6gx__QedeH4Q9rikuZ00_h2ZqyoYsxQP1zDCX6Mzv9Lzv-ARFqjPA</recordid><startdate>20211015</startdate><enddate>20211015</enddate><creator>Chen, Can</creator><creator>Zhang, Xiaobao</creator><creator>Jiang, Daixi</creator><creator>Yan, Danying</creator><creator>Guan, Zhou</creator><creator>Zhou, Yuqing</creator><creator>Liu, Xiaoxiao</creator><creator>Huang, Chenyang</creator><creator>Ding, Cheng</creator><creator>Lan, Lei</creator><creator>Huang, Xihui</creator><creator>Li, Lanjuan</creator><creator>Yang, Shigui</creator><general>MDPI AG</general><general>MDPI</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20211015</creationdate><title>Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China</title><author>Chen, Can ; 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This study used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore the relationship between temperature and influenza activity in China. From the national perspective, the average temperature (AT) had an approximately negative linear correlation with the incidence of influenza, as well as a positive rate of influenza H1N1 virus (A/H1N1). Every degree that the monthly AT rose, the influenza cases decreased by 2.49% (95%CI: 1.24%–3.72%). The risk of influenza cases reached a peak at −5.35 °C with RRs of 2.14 (95%CI: 1.38–3.33) and the monthly AT in the range of −5.35 °C to 18.31 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Every degree that the weekly AT rose, the positive rate of A/H1N1 decreased by 5.28% (95%CI: 0.35%–9.96%). The risk of A/H1N1 reached a peak at −3.14 °C with RRs of 4.88 (95%CI: 1.01–23.75) and the weekly AT in the range of −3.14 °C to 17.25 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Our study found that AT is negatively associated with influenza activity, especially for A/H1N1. These findings indicate that temperature could be integrated into the current influenza surveillance system to develop early warning systems to better predict and prepare for the risks of influenza.</abstract><cop>Basel</cop><pub>MDPI AG</pub><pmid>34682590</pmid><doi>10.3390/ijerph182010846</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Age groups Health surveillance Infectious diseases Public health Swine flu Viruses Warning systems Weather |
| title | Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China |
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