Heterogeneity in Excess Mortality and Its Impact on Loss of Life Expectancy due to COVID-19: Evidence from Mexico

The new coronavirus (COVID-19) is having a major impact on mortality and survival in most countries of the world, with Mexico being one of the countries most heavily impacted by the pandemic. In this paper, we study the impact of COVID-19 deaths on period life expectancy at birth in Mexico by sex and state. We focus on the loss of life expectancy at different ages as a geographically comparable measure of the pandemic’s impact on the population in 2020. Results show that males have been affected more than women since they have lost more years of life expectancy at birth due to COVID-19, and they have also experienced a high variation of life expectancy loss across states. The biggest life expectancy loss concentrates in the Northeastern, Central, and Southeastern (Yucatan peninsula) states. Considering the likely undercount associated with COVID-19 deaths, sensitivity analysis suggests that the new coronavirus is having a much larger impact on life expectancy in Mexico than the official government data appears to indicate. Continuos assessment of the pandemic will help state governments quantify the effect of current and new public health measures.