Persistent Pandemics
•For countries Covid-19 cases/deaths positively related to deaths in 1918 flu pandemic.•For large US cities, mortality from the 1918 influenza is positively related to Covid-19 today.•Mechanisms: lower trust from past pandemics; multi-generational health shocks; fading collective memory. We ask whet...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Economics and human biology 2021-12, Vol.43, p.101044-101044, Article 101044 |
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| container_title | Economics and human biology |
| container_volume | 43 |
| creator | Lin, Peter Z. Meissner, Christopher M. |
| description | •For countries Covid-19 cases/deaths positively related to deaths in 1918 flu pandemic.•For large US cities, mortality from the 1918 influenza is positively related to Covid-19 today.•Mechanisms: lower trust from past pandemics; multi-generational health shocks; fading collective memory.
We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044 |
| format | Article |
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We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1570-677X</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1873-6130</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1873-6130</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044</identifier><identifier>PMID: 34371338</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Netherlands: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>1918 pandemic ; COVID-19 ; Humans ; Influenza ; Pandemic ; Pandemics ; Persistence ; Politics ; Public Health ; SARS ; SARS-CoV-2</subject><ispartof>Economics and human biology, 2021-12, Vol.43, p.101044-101044, Article 101044</ispartof><rights>2021 Elsevier B.V.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</rights><rights>2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2021 Elsevier B.V.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c484t-2a5be43304703d16df3d8f9da838ef84ede8d7dece3d24548ebbb84cdfef804b3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c484t-2a5be43304703d16df3d8f9da838ef84ede8d7dece3d24548ebbb84cdfef804b3</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-4076-127X ; 0000-0001-6286-0733</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,3550,27924,27925,45995</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34371338$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Lin, Peter Z.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Meissner, Christopher M.</creatorcontrib><title>Persistent Pandemics</title><title>Economics and human biology</title><addtitle>Econ Hum Biol</addtitle><description>•For countries Covid-19 cases/deaths positively related to deaths in 1918 flu pandemic.•For large US cities, mortality from the 1918 influenza is positively related to Covid-19 today.•Mechanisms: lower trust from past pandemics; multi-generational health shocks; fading collective memory.
We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter.</description><subject>1918 pandemic</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Influenza</subject><subject>Pandemic</subject><subject>Pandemics</subject><subject>Persistence</subject><subject>Politics</subject><subject>Public Health</subject><subject>SARS</subject><subject>SARS-CoV-2</subject><issn>1570-677X</issn><issn>1873-6130</issn><issn>1873-6130</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kM1LAzEQxYMoVqs3L17Eo5etSSa7myIIUvyCgj0oeAvZZNam7EdNtgX_e1O2Fr14mhnmvTfDj5BzRkeMsux6McJ5MeKUs81MhdgjR0zmkGQM6H7s05wmWZ6_D8hxCAtKOUTbIRmAgJwByCNyNkMfXOiw6S5nurFYOxNOyEGpq4Cn2zokbw_3r5OnZPry-Dy5myZGSNElXKcFCgAqcgqWZbYEK8ux1RIkllKgRWlziwbBcpEKiUVRSGFsGbdUFDAkt33uclXUaE18wutKLb2rtf9SrXbq76Zxc_XRrpXkMuUcYsDVNsC3nysMnapdMFhVusF2FRRPM0pTKccsSlkvNb4NwWO5O8Oo2tBUCxVpqg1N1dOMnovf_-0cP_ii4KYXYKS0duhVMA4bg9Z5NJ2yrfsn_hue44VR</recordid><startdate>20211201</startdate><enddate>20211201</enddate><creator>Lin, Peter Z.</creator><creator>Meissner, Christopher M.</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4076-127X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6286-0733</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20211201</creationdate><title>Persistent Pandemics</title><author>Lin, Peter Z. ; Meissner, Christopher M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c484t-2a5be43304703d16df3d8f9da838ef84ede8d7dece3d24548ebbb84cdfef804b3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>1918 pandemic</topic><topic>COVID-19</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Influenza</topic><topic>Pandemic</topic><topic>Pandemics</topic><topic>Persistence</topic><topic>Politics</topic><topic>Public Health</topic><topic>SARS</topic><topic>SARS-CoV-2</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Lin, Peter Z.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Meissner, Christopher M.</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Economics and human biology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Lin, Peter Z.</au><au>Meissner, Christopher M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Persistent Pandemics</atitle><jtitle>Economics and human biology</jtitle><addtitle>Econ Hum Biol</addtitle><date>2021-12-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>43</volume><spage>101044</spage><epage>101044</epage><pages>101044-101044</pages><artnum>101044</artnum><issn>1570-677X</issn><issn>1873-6130</issn><eissn>1873-6130</eissn><abstract>•For countries Covid-19 cases/deaths positively related to deaths in 1918 flu pandemic.•For large US cities, mortality from the 1918 influenza is positively related to Covid-19 today.•Mechanisms: lower trust from past pandemics; multi-generational health shocks; fading collective memory.
We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter.</abstract><cop>Netherlands</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><pmid>34371338</pmid><doi>10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044</doi><tpages>1</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4076-127X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6286-0733</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Economics and human biology, 2021-12, Vol.43, p.101044-101044, Article 101044 |
| issn | 1570-677X 1873-6130 1873-6130 |
| language | eng |
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| source | MEDLINE; Access via ScienceDirect (Elsevier) |
| subjects | 1918 pandemic COVID-19 Humans Influenza Pandemic Pandemics Persistence Politics Public Health SARS SARS-CoV-2 |
| title | Persistent Pandemics |
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