Is Curfew Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Progression? An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses

Background Since late summer 2020, the French authorities implemented a curfew/lightened lockdown-alternating strategy instead of strict lockdown, to improve acceptability and limit socioeconomic consequences. However, data on curfew-related efficacy to control the epidemic are scarce. Objective To...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of general internal medicine : JGIM 2021-09, Vol.36 (9), p.2731-2738
Hauptverfasser: Mégarbane, Bruno, Bourasset, Fanchon, Scherrmann, Jean-Michel
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Bourasset, Fanchon
Scherrmann, Jean-Michel
description Background Since late summer 2020, the French authorities implemented a curfew/lightened lockdown-alternating strategy instead of strict lockdown, to improve acceptability and limit socioeconomic consequences. However, data on curfew-related efficacy to control the epidemic are scarce. Objective To investigate the effects on COVID-19 spread in France of curfew combined to local and/or nationwide restrictions from late summer 2020 to mid-February 2021. Design We conducted a comparative evaluation using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)–based model completed with epidemiokinetic tools. Main Measures We analyzed the time-course of epidemic progression rate under curfew in French Guyana and five metropolitan regions where additional restrictions were implemented at different times. Using linear regressions of the decay/increase rates in daily contaminations, we calculated the epidemic regression half-lives (t 1/2β ) for each identified period. Key Results In French Guyana, two decay periods with rapid regression (t 1/2β of ~10 days) were observed under curfew, with slowing (t 1/2β of ~43 days) when curfew was lightened. During the 2-week pre-lockdown curfew (2020/10/17–2020/11/02) in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and Ile-de-France, the epidemic progression was unchanged. During the post-lockdown curfew (2020/12/15–2020/02/14), the epidemic slowly regressed in Grand-Est (t 1/2β of ~37 days), whereas its progression rate plateaued in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and increased immediately in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Ile-de-France, and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, whatever the curfew starting time was (06:00 or 08:00 pm). Interestingly, a delayed slow decay (17 days < t 1/2β < 64 days) occurred under curfew in all regions except Ile-de-France. Conclusions Curfew allowed the temporary control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, however variably in the French regions, without preventing lockdown necessity. To accelerate the epidemic regression such as observed in French Guyana, curfew should be implemented timely with additional restrictions.
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An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals</source><source>PubMed Central</source><source>Alma/SFX Local Collection</source><source>SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings</source><creator>Mégarbane, Bruno ; Bourasset, Fanchon ; Scherrmann, Jean-Michel</creator><creatorcontrib>Mégarbane, Bruno ; Bourasset, Fanchon ; Scherrmann, Jean-Michel</creatorcontrib><description>Background Since late summer 2020, the French authorities implemented a curfew/lightened lockdown-alternating strategy instead of strict lockdown, to improve acceptability and limit socioeconomic consequences. However, data on curfew-related efficacy to control the epidemic are scarce. Objective To investigate the effects on COVID-19 spread in France of curfew combined to local and/or nationwide restrictions from late summer 2020 to mid-February 2021. Design We conducted a comparative evaluation using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)–based model completed with epidemiokinetic tools. Main Measures We analyzed the time-course of epidemic progression rate under curfew in French Guyana and five metropolitan regions where additional restrictions were implemented at different times. Using linear regressions of the decay/increase rates in daily contaminations, we calculated the epidemic regression half-lives (t 1/2β ) for each identified period. Key Results In French Guyana, two decay periods with rapid regression (t 1/2β of ~10 days) were observed under curfew, with slowing (t 1/2β of ~43 days) when curfew was lightened. During the 2-week pre-lockdown curfew (2020/10/17–2020/11/02) in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and Ile-de-France, the epidemic progression was unchanged. During the post-lockdown curfew (2020/12/15–2020/02/14), the epidemic slowly regressed in Grand-Est (t 1/2β of ~37 days), whereas its progression rate plateaued in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and increased immediately in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Ile-de-France, and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, whatever the curfew starting time was (06:00 or 08:00 pm). Interestingly, a delayed slow decay (17 days &lt; t 1/2β &lt; 64 days) occurred under curfew in all regions except Ile-de-France. Conclusions Curfew allowed the temporary control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, however variably in the French regions, without preventing lockdown necessity. To accelerate the epidemic regression such as observed in French Guyana, curfew should be implemented timely with additional restrictions.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0884-8734</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1525-1497</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s11606-021-06953-9</identifier><identifier>PMID: 34131877</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Cham: Springer International Publishing</publisher><subject>Cardiology and cardiovascular system ; Communicable Disease Control - methods ; Constrictions ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 - prevention &amp; control ; Curfews ; Decay ; Decay rate ; Disease control ; Emerging diseases ; Epidemics ; Evaluation ; France - epidemiology ; Human health and pathology ; Humans ; Infectious diseases ; Internal Medicine ; Life Sciences ; Medicine ; Medicine &amp; Public Health ; Metropolitan areas ; Original Research ; Pulmonology and respiratory tract ; Regression ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Summer ; Toxicology</subject><ispartof>Journal of general internal medicine : JGIM, 2021-09, Vol.36 (9), p.2731-2738</ispartof><rights>Society of General Internal Medicine 2021</rights><rights>2021. 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An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses</title><title>Journal of general internal medicine : JGIM</title><addtitle>J GEN INTERN MED</addtitle><addtitle>J Gen Intern Med</addtitle><description>Background Since late summer 2020, the French authorities implemented a curfew/lightened lockdown-alternating strategy instead of strict lockdown, to improve acceptability and limit socioeconomic consequences. However, data on curfew-related efficacy to control the epidemic are scarce. Objective To investigate the effects on COVID-19 spread in France of curfew combined to local and/or nationwide restrictions from late summer 2020 to mid-February 2021. Design We conducted a comparative evaluation using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)–based model completed with epidemiokinetic tools. Main Measures We analyzed the time-course of epidemic progression rate under curfew in French Guyana and five metropolitan regions where additional restrictions were implemented at different times. Using linear regressions of the decay/increase rates in daily contaminations, we calculated the epidemic regression half-lives (t 1/2β ) for each identified period. Key Results In French Guyana, two decay periods with rapid regression (t 1/2β of ~10 days) were observed under curfew, with slowing (t 1/2β of ~43 days) when curfew was lightened. During the 2-week pre-lockdown curfew (2020/10/17–2020/11/02) in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and Ile-de-France, the epidemic progression was unchanged. During the post-lockdown curfew (2020/12/15–2020/02/14), the epidemic slowly regressed in Grand-Est (t 1/2β of ~37 days), whereas its progression rate plateaued in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and increased immediately in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Ile-de-France, and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, whatever the curfew starting time was (06:00 or 08:00 pm). Interestingly, a delayed slow decay (17 days &lt; t 1/2β &lt; 64 days) occurred under curfew in all regions except Ile-de-France. Conclusions Curfew allowed the temporary control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, however variably in the French regions, without preventing lockdown necessity. 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An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses</title><author>Mégarbane, Bruno ; Bourasset, Fanchon ; Scherrmann, Jean-Michel</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c508t-cd6dbc283bc17c2fa7c8fd749a354a7c6393af42fe585204e6d3caa4108b32263</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Cardiology and cardiovascular system</topic><topic>Communicable Disease Control - methods</topic><topic>Constrictions</topic><topic>COVID-19</topic><topic>COVID-19 - prevention &amp; control</topic><topic>Curfews</topic><topic>Decay</topic><topic>Decay rate</topic><topic>Disease control</topic><topic>Emerging diseases</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>Evaluation</topic><topic>France - epidemiology</topic><topic>Human health and pathology</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infectious diseases</topic><topic>Internal Medicine</topic><topic>Life Sciences</topic><topic>Medicine</topic><topic>Medicine &amp; Public Health</topic><topic>Metropolitan areas</topic><topic>Original Research</topic><topic>Pulmonology and respiratory tract</topic><topic>Regression</topic><topic>Severe acute respiratory syndrome</topic><topic>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</topic><topic>Summer</topic><topic>Toxicology</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Mégarbane, Bruno</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bourasset, Fanchon</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Scherrmann, Jean-Michel</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Nursing &amp; Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Health &amp; Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Healthcare Administration Database (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health &amp; Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health &amp; Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Healthcare Administration Database</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing &amp; Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL)</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Journal of general internal medicine : JGIM</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Mégarbane, Bruno</au><au>Bourasset, Fanchon</au><au>Scherrmann, Jean-Michel</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Is Curfew Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Progression? An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses</atitle><jtitle>Journal of general internal medicine : JGIM</jtitle><stitle>J GEN INTERN MED</stitle><addtitle>J Gen Intern Med</addtitle><date>2021-09-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>36</volume><issue>9</issue><spage>2731</spage><epage>2738</epage><pages>2731-2738</pages><issn>0884-8734</issn><eissn>1525-1497</eissn><abstract>Background Since late summer 2020, the French authorities implemented a curfew/lightened lockdown-alternating strategy instead of strict lockdown, to improve acceptability and limit socioeconomic consequences. However, data on curfew-related efficacy to control the epidemic are scarce. Objective To investigate the effects on COVID-19 spread in France of curfew combined to local and/or nationwide restrictions from late summer 2020 to mid-February 2021. Design We conducted a comparative evaluation using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)–based model completed with epidemiokinetic tools. Main Measures We analyzed the time-course of epidemic progression rate under curfew in French Guyana and five metropolitan regions where additional restrictions were implemented at different times. Using linear regressions of the decay/increase rates in daily contaminations, we calculated the epidemic regression half-lives (t 1/2β ) for each identified period. Key Results In French Guyana, two decay periods with rapid regression (t 1/2β of ~10 days) were observed under curfew, with slowing (t 1/2β of ~43 days) when curfew was lightened. During the 2-week pre-lockdown curfew (2020/10/17–2020/11/02) in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and Ile-de-France, the epidemic progression was unchanged. During the post-lockdown curfew (2020/12/15–2020/02/14), the epidemic slowly regressed in Grand-Est (t 1/2β of ~37 days), whereas its progression rate plateaued in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and increased immediately in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Ile-de-France, and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, whatever the curfew starting time was (06:00 or 08:00 pm). Interestingly, a delayed slow decay (17 days &lt; t 1/2β &lt; 64 days) occurred under curfew in all regions except Ile-de-France. Conclusions Curfew allowed the temporary control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, however variably in the French regions, without preventing lockdown necessity. To accelerate the epidemic regression such as observed in French Guyana, curfew should be implemented timely with additional restrictions.</abstract><cop>Cham</cop><pub>Springer International Publishing</pub><pmid>34131877</pmid><doi>10.1007/s11606-021-06953-9</doi><tpages>8</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2522-2764</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Cardiology and cardiovascular system
Communicable Disease Control - methods
Constrictions
COVID-19
COVID-19 - prevention & control
Curfews
Decay
Decay rate
Disease control
Emerging diseases
Epidemics
Evaluation
France - epidemiology
Human health and pathology
Humans
Infectious diseases
Internal Medicine
Life Sciences
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Metropolitan areas
Original Research
Pulmonology and respiratory tract
Regression
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Summer
Toxicology
title Is Curfew Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Progression? An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses
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