Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands

Background The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic—and whether this proportion is age-dependent—are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the obs...

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Veröffentlicht in:European journal of epidemiology 2021-07, Vol.36 (7), p.735-739
Hauptverfasser: McDonald, Scott A., Miura, Fuminari, Vos, Eric R. A., van Boven, Michiel, de Melker, Hester E., van der Klis, Fiona R. M., van Binnendijk, Rob S., den Hartog, Gerco, Wallinga, Jacco
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container_issue 7
container_start_page 735
container_title European journal of epidemiology
container_volume 36
creator McDonald, Scott A.
Miura, Fuminari
Vos, Eric R. A.
van Boven, Michiel
de Melker, Hester E.
van der Klis, Fiona R. M.
van Binnendijk, Rob S.
den Hartog, Gerco
Wallinga, Jacco
description Background The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic—and whether this proportion is age-dependent—are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the observed , or 'crude' proportion without symptoms may underestimate the proportion of persons without symptoms that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods Based on two rounds of a large population-based serological study comprising test results on seropositivity and self-reported symptom history conducted in April/May and June/July 2020 in the Netherlands ( n  = 7517), we estimated the proportion of reported symptoms among those persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 that is attributable to this infection, where the set of relevant symptoms fulfills the ECDC case definition of COVID-19, using inferential methods for the attributable risk (AR). Generalised additive regression modelling was used to estimate the age-dependent relative risk (RR) of reported symptoms, and the AR and asymptomatic proportion (AP) were calculated from the fitted RR. Results Using age-aggregated data, the 'crude' AP was 37% but the model-estimated AP was 65% (95% CI 63–68%). The estimated AP varied with age, from 74% (95% CI 65–90%) for 
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A. ; van Boven, Michiel ; de Melker, Hester E. ; van der Klis, Fiona R. M. ; van Binnendijk, Rob S. ; den Hartog, Gerco ; Wallinga, Jacco</creator><creatorcontrib>McDonald, Scott A. ; Miura, Fuminari ; Vos, Eric R. A. ; van Boven, Michiel ; de Melker, Hester E. ; van der Klis, Fiona R. M. ; van Binnendijk, Rob S. ; den Hartog, Gerco ; Wallinga, Jacco</creatorcontrib><description>Background The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic—and whether this proportion is age-dependent—are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the observed , or 'crude' proportion without symptoms may underestimate the proportion of persons without symptoms that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods Based on two rounds of a large population-based serological study comprising test results on seropositivity and self-reported symptom history conducted in April/May and June/July 2020 in the Netherlands ( n  = 7517), we estimated the proportion of reported symptoms among those persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 that is attributable to this infection, where the set of relevant symptoms fulfills the ECDC case definition of COVID-19, using inferential methods for the attributable risk (AR). Generalised additive regression modelling was used to estimate the age-dependent relative risk (RR) of reported symptoms, and the AR and asymptomatic proportion (AP) were calculated from the fitted RR. Results Using age-aggregated data, the 'crude' AP was 37% but the model-estimated AP was 65% (95% CI 63–68%). The estimated AP varied with age, from 74% (95% CI 65–90%) for &lt; 20 years, to 61% (95% CI 57–65%) for the 50–59 years age-group. Conclusion Whereas the 'crude' AP represents a lower bound for the proportion of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 without COVID-19 symptoms, the AP as estimated via an attributable risk approach represents an upper bound. Age-specific AP estimates can inform the implementation of public health actions such as targetted virological testing and therefore enhance containment strategies.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0393-2990</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-7284</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y</identifier><identifier>PMID: 34114187</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Adult ; Age ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Antibodies, Viral - blood ; Asymptomatic ; Asymptomatic Infections - epidemiology ; Biomarkers - blood ; Cardiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 - diagnosis ; COVID-19 - epidemiology ; COVID-19 - virology ; COVID-19 Serological Testing ; Epidemiology ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Infections ; Infectious Diseases ; Lower bounds ; Male ; Medicine ; Medicine &amp; Public Health ; Middle Aged ; Netherlands - epidemiology ; Oncology ; Poisson Distribution ; Population studies ; Public Health ; Regression Analysis ; Risk ; Risk Assessment ; SARS-CoV-2 - immunology ; Self Report ; Seroepidemiologic Studies ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Upper bounds ; Viral diseases ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>European journal of epidemiology, 2021-07, Vol.36 (7), p.735-739</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2021</rights><rights>2021. The Author(s).</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2021. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-ec0fcbb66a26ffaa9693d55c7864ed11edeee6757170d06d33b57c4d0d6556de3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-ec0fcbb66a26ffaa9693d55c7864ed11edeee6757170d06d33b57c4d0d6556de3</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-0788-6011</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,27924,27925,41488,42557,51319</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34114187$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>McDonald, Scott A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Miura, Fuminari</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vos, Eric R. A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Boven, Michiel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>de Melker, Hester E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Klis, Fiona R. M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Binnendijk, Rob S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>den Hartog, Gerco</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wallinga, Jacco</creatorcontrib><title>Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands</title><title>European journal of epidemiology</title><addtitle>Eur J Epidemiol</addtitle><addtitle>Eur J Epidemiol</addtitle><description>Background The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic—and whether this proportion is age-dependent—are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the observed , or 'crude' proportion without symptoms may underestimate the proportion of persons without symptoms that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods Based on two rounds of a large population-based serological study comprising test results on seropositivity and self-reported symptom history conducted in April/May and June/July 2020 in the Netherlands ( n  = 7517), we estimated the proportion of reported symptoms among those persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 that is attributable to this infection, where the set of relevant symptoms fulfills the ECDC case definition of COVID-19, using inferential methods for the attributable risk (AR). Generalised additive regression modelling was used to estimate the age-dependent relative risk (RR) of reported symptoms, and the AR and asymptomatic proportion (AP) were calculated from the fitted RR. Results Using age-aggregated data, the 'crude' AP was 37% but the model-estimated AP was 65% (95% CI 63–68%). The estimated AP varied with age, from 74% (95% CI 65–90%) for &lt; 20 years, to 61% (95% CI 57–65%) for the 50–59 years age-group. Conclusion Whereas the 'crude' AP represents a lower bound for the proportion of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 without COVID-19 symptoms, the AP as estimated via an attributable risk approach represents an upper bound. Age-specific AP estimates can inform the implementation of public health actions such as targetted virological testing and therefore enhance containment strategies.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Antibodies, Viral - blood</subject><subject>Asymptomatic</subject><subject>Asymptomatic Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>Biomarkers - blood</subject><subject>Cardiology</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>COVID-19 - diagnosis</subject><subject>COVID-19 - epidemiology</subject><subject>COVID-19 - virology</subject><subject>COVID-19 Serological Testing</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infant</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subject>Lower bounds</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>Medicine &amp; Public Health</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Netherlands - epidemiology</subject><subject>Oncology</subject><subject>Poisson Distribution</subject><subject>Population studies</subject><subject>Public Health</subject><subject>Regression Analysis</subject><subject>Risk</subject><subject>Risk Assessment</subject><subject>SARS-CoV-2 - immunology</subject><subject>Self Report</subject><subject>Seroepidemiologic Studies</subject><subject>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</subject><subject>Upper bounds</subject><subject>Viral diseases</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>0393-2990</issn><issn>1573-7284</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>C6C</sourceid><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNp9UcuOFCEUJUbjtKM_4MKQuHGDQlFAlQuTTmd8JBNNHHVLaLjVw6QaSqgaU9_hD0t1z4yPhRsI555zuPcehJ4y-pJRql5lRqWoCa0YKU_ZkPkeWjGhOFFVU99HK8pbTqq2pSfoUc5XlNKGtuIhOuE1YzVr1Ar9PMuj35vRhx0eLwGbPO-HMS6IxUOKQ0yjjwHHDl-sP1-QTfxGKuxDB_aA-3CQ7SBAMj0e4jD1Zqm8xutg-jn7vGjDAfvhHeAMKeYpXcOMnRnNrcNHKGfqTXD5MXrQmT7Dk5v7FH19e_Zl856cf3r3YbM-J1bUdCRgaWe3WylNJbvOmFa23AlhVSNrcIyBAwCphGKKOiod51uhbO2ok0JIB_wUvTn6DtN2D85CGMsMekhlIWnW0Xj9dyX4S72L17phbfGsi8GLG4MUv0-QR7332UJfpoA4ZV2VPgWrRSMK9fk_1Ks4pbKhhSVFyyvOF1Z1ZNmyo5ygu2uGUb1kro-Z65K5PmSu5yJ69ucYd5LbkAuBHwm5lMIO0u-__2P7CyB3vBs</recordid><startdate>20210701</startdate><enddate>20210701</enddate><creator>McDonald, Scott A.</creator><creator>Miura, Fuminari</creator><creator>Vos, Eric R. 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A.</au><au>van Boven, Michiel</au><au>de Melker, Hester E.</au><au>van der Klis, Fiona R. M.</au><au>van Binnendijk, Rob S.</au><au>den Hartog, Gerco</au><au>Wallinga, Jacco</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands</atitle><jtitle>European journal of epidemiology</jtitle><stitle>Eur J Epidemiol</stitle><addtitle>Eur J Epidemiol</addtitle><date>2021-07-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>36</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>735</spage><epage>739</epage><pages>735-739</pages><issn>0393-2990</issn><eissn>1573-7284</eissn><abstract>Background The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic—and whether this proportion is age-dependent—are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the observed , or 'crude' proportion without symptoms may underestimate the proportion of persons without symptoms that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods Based on two rounds of a large population-based serological study comprising test results on seropositivity and self-reported symptom history conducted in April/May and June/July 2020 in the Netherlands ( n  = 7517), we estimated the proportion of reported symptoms among those persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 that is attributable to this infection, where the set of relevant symptoms fulfills the ECDC case definition of COVID-19, using inferential methods for the attributable risk (AR). Generalised additive regression modelling was used to estimate the age-dependent relative risk (RR) of reported symptoms, and the AR and asymptomatic proportion (AP) were calculated from the fitted RR. Results Using age-aggregated data, the 'crude' AP was 37% but the model-estimated AP was 65% (95% CI 63–68%). The estimated AP varied with age, from 74% (95% CI 65–90%) for &lt; 20 years, to 61% (95% CI 57–65%) for the 50–59 years age-group. Conclusion Whereas the 'crude' AP represents a lower bound for the proportion of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 without COVID-19 symptoms, the AP as estimated via an attributable risk approach represents an upper bound. Age-specific AP estimates can inform the implementation of public health actions such as targetted virological testing and therefore enhance containment strategies.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><pmid>34114187</pmid><doi>10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y</doi><tpages>5</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0788-6011</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Adolescent
Adult
Age
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Antibodies, Viral - blood
Asymptomatic
Asymptomatic Infections - epidemiology
Biomarkers - blood
Cardiology
Child
Child, Preschool
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - diagnosis
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - virology
COVID-19 Serological Testing
Epidemiology
Female
Humans
Infant
Infections
Infectious Diseases
Lower bounds
Male
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Middle Aged
Netherlands - epidemiology
Oncology
Poisson Distribution
Population studies
Public Health
Regression Analysis
Risk
Risk Assessment
SARS-CoV-2 - immunology
Self Report
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Upper bounds
Viral diseases
Young Adult
title Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands
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