Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States
After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of i...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2021-03, Vol.371 (6536) |
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| creator | Monod, Mélodie Blenkinsop, Alexandra Xi, Xiaoyue Hebert, Daniel Bershan, Sivan Tietze, Simon Baguelin, Marc Bradley, Valerie C Chen, Yu Coupland, Helen Filippi, Sarah Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan McManus, Martin Mellan, Thomas Gandy, Axel Hutchinson, Michael Unwin, H Juliette T van Elsland, Sabine L Vollmer, Michaela A C Weber, Sebastian Zhu, Harrison Bezancon, Anne Ferguson, Neil M Mishra, Swapnil Flaxman, Seth Bhatt, Samir Ratmann, Oliver |
| description | After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1126/SCIENCE.ABE8372 |
| format | Article |
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As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0036-8075</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1095-9203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1126/SCIENCE.ABE8372</identifier><identifier>PMID: 33531384</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: The American Association for the Advancement of Science</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Adolescents ; Adult ; Adults ; Age ; Age Factors ; Age groups ; Attrition (Research Studies) ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Cell Phone ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Children ; Communicable Disease Control ; Comp/Math ; Coronaviridae ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 - epidemiology ; COVID-19 - mortality ; COVID-19 - prevention & control ; COVID-19 - transmission ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Demographics ; Demography ; Disease control ; Disease transmission ; Early Adolescents ; Epidemics ; Epidemics - prevention & control ; Epidemiology ; Fatalities ; Heterogeneity ; Humans ; Immunization ; Infant ; Infections ; Loosening ; Middle Aged ; Mobility ; Models, Theoretical ; Mortality ; Numbers ; Pandemics ; Pandemics - prevention & control ; Public health ; Questions ; Reproduction ; Respiratory diseases ; Schools ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Summer ; United States - epidemiology ; Vaccines ; Viral diseases ; Workplaces ; Young Adult ; Young adults</subject><ispartof>Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2021-03, Vol.371 (6536)</ispartof><rights>Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works</rights><rights>Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 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As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adolescents</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Adults</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Age Factors</subject><subject>Age groups</subject><subject>Attrition (Research Studies)</subject><subject>Basic Reproduction Number</subject><subject>Cell Phone</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>Children</subject><subject>Communicable Disease Control</subject><subject>Comp/Math</subject><subject>Coronaviridae</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>COVID-19 - epidemiology</subject><subject>COVID-19 - mortality</subject><subject>COVID-19 - prevention & control</subject><subject>COVID-19 - transmission</subject><subject>COVID-19 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groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States</title><author>Monod, Mélodie ; Blenkinsop, Alexandra ; Xi, Xiaoyue ; Hebert, Daniel ; Bershan, Sivan ; Tietze, Simon ; Baguelin, Marc ; Bradley, Valerie C ; Chen, Yu ; Coupland, Helen ; Filippi, Sarah ; Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan ; McManus, Martin ; Mellan, Thomas ; Gandy, Axel ; Hutchinson, Michael ; Unwin, H Juliette T ; van Elsland, Sabine L ; Vollmer, Michaela A C ; Weber, Sebastian ; Zhu, Harrison ; Bezancon, Anne ; Ferguson, Neil M ; Mishra, Swapnil ; Flaxman, Seth ; Bhatt, Samir ; Ratmann, Oliver</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c449t-b423984e8fbfa2d41b0c64fee1e5dd1ac752ef5a68231a85ba7b9e9f088fd3be3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Adolescents</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Adults</topic><topic>Age</topic><topic>Age Factors</topic><topic>Age 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Mélodie</au><au>Blenkinsop, Alexandra</au><au>Xi, Xiaoyue</au><au>Hebert, Daniel</au><au>Bershan, Sivan</au><au>Tietze, Simon</au><au>Baguelin, Marc</au><au>Bradley, Valerie C</au><au>Chen, Yu</au><au>Coupland, Helen</au><au>Filippi, Sarah</au><au>Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan</au><au>McManus, Martin</au><au>Mellan, Thomas</au><au>Gandy, Axel</au><au>Hutchinson, Michael</au><au>Unwin, H Juliette T</au><au>van Elsland, Sabine L</au><au>Vollmer, Michaela A C</au><au>Weber, Sebastian</au><au>Zhu, Harrison</au><au>Bezancon, Anne</au><au>Ferguson, Neil M</au><au>Mishra, Swapnil</au><au>Flaxman, Seth</au><au>Bhatt, Samir</au><au>Ratmann, Oliver</au><aucorp>Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team</aucorp><aucorp>on behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team</aucorp><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States</atitle><jtitle>Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science)</jtitle><addtitle>Science</addtitle><date>2021-03-26</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>371</volume><issue>6536</issue><issn>0036-8075</issn><eissn>1095-9203</eissn><abstract>After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>The American Association for the Advancement of Science</pub><pmid>33531384</pmid><doi>10.1126/SCIENCE.ABE8372</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8759-5902</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6970-7192</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8667-4118</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0775-7463</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7528-2298</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8652-358X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3867-1953</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9120-4003</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3581-1404</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5386-6620</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4185-9930</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6448-2051</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2328-8671</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0891-4611</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2563-917X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6777-0451</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2477-4217</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1154-8093</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0036-8075 |
| ispartof | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2021-03, Vol.371 (6536) |
| issn | 0036-8075 1095-9203 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_8101272 |
| source | MEDLINE; American Association for the Advancement of Science |
| subjects | Adolescent Adolescents Adult Adults Age Age Factors Age groups Attrition (Research Studies) Basic Reproduction Number Cell Phone Child Child, Preschool Children Communicable Disease Control Comp/Math Coronaviridae Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 - epidemiology COVID-19 - mortality COVID-19 - prevention & control COVID-19 - transmission COVID-19 Vaccines Demographics Demography Disease control Disease transmission Early Adolescents Epidemics Epidemics - prevention & control Epidemiology Fatalities Heterogeneity Humans Immunization Infant Infections Loosening Middle Aged Mobility Models, Theoretical Mortality Numbers Pandemics Pandemics - prevention & control Public health Questions Reproduction Respiratory diseases Schools Severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Summer United States - epidemiology Vaccines Viral diseases Workplaces Young Adult Young adults |
| title | Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-22T20%3A28%3A22IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_pubme&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Age%20groups%20that%20sustain%20resurging%20COVID-19%20epidemics%20in%20the%20United%20States&rft.jtitle=Science%20(American%20Association%20for%20the%20Advancement%20of%20Science)&rft.au=Monod,%20M%C3%A9lodie&rft.aucorp=Imperial%20College%20COVID-19%20Response%20Team&rft.date=2021-03-26&rft.volume=371&rft.issue=6536&rft.issn=0036-8075&rft.eissn=1095-9203&rft_id=info:doi/10.1126/SCIENCE.ABE8372&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_pubme%3E2486140128%3C/proquest_pubme%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2505403450&rft_id=info:pmid/33531384&rfr_iscdi=true |