COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution

•The time series of the daily corona infection is showing different traits with respect to time.•But the RGR profile of the daily corona infection for the top ten countries are decreasing.•The concept of geometry has been used to identify the steady state initiation time (SSIT) point for the daily c...

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Veröffentlicht in:Chaos, solitons and fractals solitons and fractals, 2021-03, Vol.144, p.110697-110697, Article 110697
Hauptverfasser: Paul, Ayan, Reja, Selim, Kundu, Sayani, Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:•The time series of the daily corona infection is showing different traits with respect to time.•But the RGR profile of the daily corona infection for the top ten countries are decreasing.•The concept of geometry has been used to identify the steady state initiation time (SSIT) point for the daily corona infected cases.•Finally, a prediction has been given in the manuscript for the stabilization of the ongoing pandemic in India. We have put an effort to estimate the number of publications related to the modelling aspect of the corona pandemic through the web search with the corona associated keywords. The survey reveals that plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution. Most of the future predictions based on these epidemiological models are highly unreliable because of the complexity of the dynamical equations and the poor knowledge of realistic values of the model parameters. The incidence time series of top ten corona infected countries are erratic and sparse. But in comparison, the incidence and disease fitness relationships are uniform and concave upward in nature. These simple profiles with the acceleration curves have fundamental implications in understanding the instinctive dynamics of the corona pandemic. We propose a simple population dynamics solution based on the incidence-fitness relationship in predicting that a plateau or steady state of SARS-CoV-2 will be reached using the basic concept of geometry.
ISSN:0960-0779
1873-2887
0960-0779
DOI:10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110697