Early mandated social distancing is a strong predictor of reduction in peak daily new COVID-19 cases
Mandated social distancing has been applied globally to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the beneficial effects of this community-based intervention have not been proven or quantified for the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a regional population-level observational study...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Public health (London) 2021-01, Vol.190, p.160-167 |
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| creator | Qureshi, A.I. Suri, M.F.K. Chu, H. Suri, H.K. Suri, A.K. |
| description | Mandated social distancing has been applied globally to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the beneficial effects of this community-based intervention have not been proven or quantified for the COVID-19 pandemic.
This is a regional population-level observational study.
Using publicly available data, we examined the effect of timing of mandated social distancing on the rate of COVID-19 cases in 119 geographic regions, derived from 41 states within the United States and 78 other countries. The highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day recorded within a geographic unit was the primary outcome. The total number of COVID-19 cases in regions where case numbers had reached the tail end of the outbreak was an exploratory outcome.
We found that the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day per million persons was significantly associated with the total number of COVID-19 cases per million persons on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.66, P |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.10.015 |
| format | Article |
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This is a regional population-level observational study.
Using publicly available data, we examined the effect of timing of mandated social distancing on the rate of COVID-19 cases in 119 geographic regions, derived from 41 states within the United States and 78 other countries. The highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day recorded within a geographic unit was the primary outcome. The total number of COVID-19 cases in regions where case numbers had reached the tail end of the outbreak was an exploratory outcome.
We found that the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day per million persons was significantly associated with the total number of COVID-19 cases per million persons on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.66, P < 0.0001). These findings suggest that if mandated social distancing is not initiated until the number of existing COVID-19 cases has doubled, the eventual peak would result in 58% more COVID-19 cases per day. Subgroup analysis on those regions where the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day has peaked showed increase in β values to 0.85 (P < 0.0001). The total number of cases during the outbreak in a region was strongly predicted by the total number of COVID-19 cases on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.97, P < 0.0001).
Initiating mandated social distancing when the numbers of COVID-19 cases are low within a region significantly reduces the number of new daily COVID-19 cases and perhaps also reduces the total number of cases in the region.
•The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the time of mandated social distancing in a region is a strong predictor of peak daily new cases.•Early mandated social distancing significantly reduces the number of daily new COVID-19 cases in the region.•Early mandated social distancing also likely significantly reduces the total number of COVID-19 cases in the region.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0033-3506</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1476-5616</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.10.015</identifier><identifier>PMID: 33317819</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Netherlands: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><subject>Community-based programs ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 - prevention & control ; Disease control ; Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control ; Humans ; Infection Control ; Mandated social distancing ; Mandatory Programs ; Observational studies ; Original Research ; Outbreaks ; Pandemics ; Physical Distancing ; Population studies ; Public Policy ; Quarantine ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Social distancing ; Subgroups ; Time Factors ; United States ; Viral diseases</subject><ispartof>Public health (London), 2021-01, Vol.190, p.160-167</ispartof><rights>2020</rights><rights>Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Science Ltd. Jan 2021</rights><rights>2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Royal Society for Public Health. 2020</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c483t-d8dc0e0bc0c3c95d991cdc100c5a559130f885c4740d8f60fd6f5b0fee8376ec3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c483t-d8dc0e0bc0c3c95d991cdc100c5a559130f885c4740d8f60fd6f5b0fee8376ec3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-2300-6216</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033350620304571$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,3537,27901,27902,30976,65306</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33317819$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Qureshi, A.I.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Suri, M.F.K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chu, H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Suri, H.K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Suri, A.K.</creatorcontrib><title>Early mandated social distancing is a strong predictor of reduction in peak daily new COVID-19 cases</title><title>Public health (London)</title><addtitle>Public Health</addtitle><description>Mandated social distancing has been applied globally to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the beneficial effects of this community-based intervention have not been proven or quantified for the COVID-19 pandemic.
This is a regional population-level observational study.
Using publicly available data, we examined the effect of timing of mandated social distancing on the rate of COVID-19 cases in 119 geographic regions, derived from 41 states within the United States and 78 other countries. The highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day recorded within a geographic unit was the primary outcome. The total number of COVID-19 cases in regions where case numbers had reached the tail end of the outbreak was an exploratory outcome.
We found that the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day per million persons was significantly associated with the total number of COVID-19 cases per million persons on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.66, P < 0.0001). These findings suggest that if mandated social distancing is not initiated until the number of existing COVID-19 cases has doubled, the eventual peak would result in 58% more COVID-19 cases per day. Subgroup analysis on those regions where the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day has peaked showed increase in β values to 0.85 (P < 0.0001). The total number of cases during the outbreak in a region was strongly predicted by the total number of COVID-19 cases on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.97, P < 0.0001).
Initiating mandated social distancing when the numbers of COVID-19 cases are low within a region significantly reduces the number of new daily COVID-19 cases and perhaps also reduces the total number of cases in the region.
•The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the time of mandated social distancing in a region is a strong predictor of peak daily new cases.•Early mandated social distancing significantly reduces the number of daily new COVID-19 cases in the region.•Early mandated social distancing also likely significantly reduces the total number of COVID-19 cases in the region.</description><subject>Community-based programs</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>COVID-19 - prevention & control</subject><subject>Disease control</subject><subject>Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infection Control</subject><subject>Mandated social distancing</subject><subject>Mandatory Programs</subject><subject>Observational studies</subject><subject>Original Research</subject><subject>Outbreaks</subject><subject>Pandemics</subject><subject>Physical Distancing</subject><subject>Population studies</subject><subject>Public Policy</subject><subject>Quarantine</subject><subject>SARS-CoV-2</subject><subject>Social distancing</subject><subject>Subgroups</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>United States</subject><subject>Viral diseases</subject><issn>0033-3506</issn><issn>1476-5616</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>7QJ</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kcFuFDEMhiMEokvhBTigSFy4zOJMJpkZCSFVS4FKlXoBrlHW8bRZZpMlmSnq25PRlgo4cLJlf_5l-2fspYC1AKHf7taH-YbWNdRLYQ1CPWIr0bS6Ulrox2wFIGUlFegT9iznHQDUrVRP2YmUUrSd6FfMnds03vG9Dc5O5HiO6O3Inc-TDejDNfeZW56nFEt-SOQ8TjHxOPCSzzj5GLgP_ED2O3fWF61AP_nm6tvFh0r0HG2m_Jw9GeyY6cV9PGVfP55_2XyuLq8-XWzOLitsOjlVrnMIBFsElNgr1_cCHQoAVFapXkgYuk5h0zbgukHD4PSgtjAQdbLVhPKUvT_qHubtnhxSmJIdzSH5vU13Jlpv_u4Ef2Ou461pVdtqrYvAm3uBFH_MlCez9xlpHG2gOGdTN215Yae0LOjrf9BdnFMo55laQV1LWUKh6iOFKeacaHhYRoBZTDQ7s5hoFhOXWjGxDL3684yHkd-uFeDdEaDyzFtPyWT0FLCYkwgn46L_n_4vMwKuRQ</recordid><startdate>20210101</startdate><enddate>20210101</enddate><creator>Qureshi, A.I.</creator><creator>Suri, M.F.K.</creator><creator>Chu, H.</creator><creator>Suri, H.K.</creator><creator>Suri, A.K.</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><general>Elsevier Science Ltd</general><general>Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Royal Society for Public Health</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QJ</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7T2</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>ASE</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>FPQ</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K6X</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2300-6216</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20210101</creationdate><title>Early mandated social distancing is a strong predictor of reduction in peak daily new COVID-19 cases</title><author>Qureshi, A.I. ; Suri, M.F.K. ; Chu, H. ; Suri, H.K. ; Suri, A.K.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c483t-d8dc0e0bc0c3c95d991cdc100c5a559130f885c4740d8f60fd6f5b0fee8376ec3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Community-based programs</topic><topic>Coronaviruses</topic><topic>COVID-19</topic><topic>COVID-19 - prevention & control</topic><topic>Disease control</topic><topic>Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infection Control</topic><topic>Mandated social distancing</topic><topic>Mandatory Programs</topic><topic>Observational studies</topic><topic>Original Research</topic><topic>Outbreaks</topic><topic>Pandemics</topic><topic>Physical Distancing</topic><topic>Population studies</topic><topic>Public Policy</topic><topic>Quarantine</topic><topic>SARS-CoV-2</topic><topic>Social distancing</topic><topic>Subgroups</topic><topic>Time Factors</topic><topic>United States</topic><topic>Viral diseases</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Qureshi, A.I.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Suri, M.F.K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chu, H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Suri, H.K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Suri, A.K.</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA)</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Health and Safety Science Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>British Nursing Index</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>British Nursing Index (BNI) (1985 to Present)</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>British Nursing Index</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Public health (London)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Qureshi, A.I.</au><au>Suri, M.F.K.</au><au>Chu, H.</au><au>Suri, H.K.</au><au>Suri, A.K.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Early mandated social distancing is a strong predictor of reduction in peak daily new COVID-19 cases</atitle><jtitle>Public health (London)</jtitle><addtitle>Public Health</addtitle><date>2021-01-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>190</volume><spage>160</spage><epage>167</epage><pages>160-167</pages><issn>0033-3506</issn><eissn>1476-5616</eissn><abstract>Mandated social distancing has been applied globally to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the beneficial effects of this community-based intervention have not been proven or quantified for the COVID-19 pandemic.
This is a regional population-level observational study.
Using publicly available data, we examined the effect of timing of mandated social distancing on the rate of COVID-19 cases in 119 geographic regions, derived from 41 states within the United States and 78 other countries. The highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day recorded within a geographic unit was the primary outcome. The total number of COVID-19 cases in regions where case numbers had reached the tail end of the outbreak was an exploratory outcome.
We found that the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day per million persons was significantly associated with the total number of COVID-19 cases per million persons on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.66, P < 0.0001). These findings suggest that if mandated social distancing is not initiated until the number of existing COVID-19 cases has doubled, the eventual peak would result in 58% more COVID-19 cases per day. Subgroup analysis on those regions where the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day has peaked showed increase in β values to 0.85 (P < 0.0001). The total number of cases during the outbreak in a region was strongly predicted by the total number of COVID-19 cases on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.97, P < 0.0001).
Initiating mandated social distancing when the numbers of COVID-19 cases are low within a region significantly reduces the number of new daily COVID-19 cases and perhaps also reduces the total number of cases in the region.
•The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the time of mandated social distancing in a region is a strong predictor of peak daily new cases.•Early mandated social distancing significantly reduces the number of daily new COVID-19 cases in the region.•Early mandated social distancing also likely significantly reduces the total number of COVID-19 cases in the region.</abstract><cop>Netherlands</cop><pub>Elsevier Ltd</pub><pmid>33317819</pmid><doi>10.1016/j.puhe.2020.10.015</doi><tpages>8</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2300-6216</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Public health (London), 2021-01, Vol.190, p.160-167 |
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| language | eng |
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| source | Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA); MEDLINE; Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals |
| subjects | Community-based programs Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 - prevention & control Disease control Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control Humans Infection Control Mandated social distancing Mandatory Programs Observational studies Original Research Outbreaks Pandemics Physical Distancing Population studies Public Policy Quarantine SARS-CoV-2 Social distancing Subgroups Time Factors United States Viral diseases |
| title | Early mandated social distancing is a strong predictor of reduction in peak daily new COVID-19 cases |
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