Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019–2030
Background and Aim Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology 2020-09, Vol.35 (9), p.1628-1635 |
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| container_title | Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology |
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| creator | Adams, Leon A Roberts, Stuart K Strasser, Simone I Mahady, Suzanne E Powell, Elizabeth Estes, Chris Razavi, Homie George, Jacob |
| description | Background and Aim
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.
Methods
A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long‐term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.
Results
Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000–6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000–7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100–3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100–6100) deaths in 2030.
Conclusions
Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/jgh.15009 |
| format | Article |
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Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.
Methods
A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long‐term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.
Results
Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000–6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000–7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100–3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100–6100) deaths in 2030.
Conclusions
Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0815-9319</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1440-1746</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/jgh.15009</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32048317</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Australia: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</publisher><subject>Clinical Hepatology ; Diabetes mellitus ; Fatty liver ; Fibrosis ; Hepatocellular carcinoma ; Hepatology ; Liver cancer ; Liver cirrhosis ; Liver diseases ; Liver neoplasms ; Markov chains ; Metabolic syndrome ; Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease ; Obesity ; Surveillance</subject><ispartof>Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology, 2020-09, Vol.35 (9), p.1628-1635</ispartof><rights>2020 The Authors. Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology published by Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd</rights><rights>2020 The Authors. Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology published by Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.</rights><rights>2020. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5099-a3422f9e86987c41ec2078d853535866de1c2b51bba7391f168db2cb4e3b98473</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5099-a3422f9e86987c41ec2078d853535866de1c2b51bba7391f168db2cb4e3b98473</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-9015-7997 ; 0000-0002-2367-6535</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Fjgh.15009$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Fjgh.15009$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32048317$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Adams, Leon A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roberts, Stuart K</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Strasser, Simone I</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mahady, Suzanne E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Powell, Elizabeth</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Estes, Chris</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Razavi, Homie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>George, Jacob</creatorcontrib><title>Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019–2030</title><title>Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology</title><addtitle>J Gastroenterol Hepatol</addtitle><description>Background and Aim
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.
Methods
A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long‐term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.
Results
Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000–6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000–7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100–3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100–6100) deaths in 2030.
Conclusions
Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.</description><subject>Clinical Hepatology</subject><subject>Diabetes mellitus</subject><subject>Fatty liver</subject><subject>Fibrosis</subject><subject>Hepatocellular carcinoma</subject><subject>Hepatology</subject><subject>Liver cancer</subject><subject>Liver cirrhosis</subject><subject>Liver diseases</subject><subject>Liver neoplasms</subject><subject>Markov chains</subject><subject>Metabolic syndrome</subject><subject>Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease</subject><subject>Obesity</subject><subject>Surveillance</subject><issn>0815-9319</issn><issn>1440-1746</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>24P</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kctOGzEUhq2qqISUBS-ARuoGJAaOb2O7CxBC3CrUbsra8ng8xNFkTO1MUHZ9h75hn6QOAQRIPV6chT99-nV-hHYwHOI8R9O7ySHmAOoDGmHGoMSCVR_RCCTmpaJYbaKtlKYAwEDwT2iTEmCSYjFCJ99DbzobJqHztmjNfL4sOr9wsWh8cia5oh5i4_qvxemQ5tF03hwUBLD6-_sPAQqf0UZruuS2n_YY3V6c_zy7Km9-XF6fnd6UloNSpaGMkFY5WSkpLMPOEhCykZzmJ6uqcdiSmuO6NoIq3OJKNjWxNXO0VpIJOkbHa-_9UM9cY12_CqPvo5-ZuNTBeP32p_cTfRcWWnAGXEAW7D0JYvg1uDTXM5-s6zrTuzAkTShn-YYV0Ix-eYdOwxDzmTLFGBWEVwpnan9N2RhSiq59CYNBr2rRuRb9WEtmd1-nfyGfe8jA0Rp48J1b_t-kv11erZX_ACUFlOs</recordid><startdate>202009</startdate><enddate>202009</enddate><creator>Adams, Leon A</creator><creator>Roberts, Stuart K</creator><creator>Strasser, Simone I</creator><creator>Mahady, Suzanne E</creator><creator>Powell, Elizabeth</creator><creator>Estes, Chris</creator><creator>Razavi, Homie</creator><creator>George, Jacob</creator><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><general>John Wiley and Sons Inc</general><scope>24P</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9015-7997</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2367-6535</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202009</creationdate><title>Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019–2030</title><author>Adams, Leon A ; Roberts, Stuart K ; Strasser, Simone I ; Mahady, Suzanne E ; Powell, Elizabeth ; Estes, Chris ; Razavi, Homie ; George, Jacob</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c5099-a3422f9e86987c41ec2078d853535866de1c2b51bba7391f168db2cb4e3b98473</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Clinical Hepatology</topic><topic>Diabetes mellitus</topic><topic>Fatty liver</topic><topic>Fibrosis</topic><topic>Hepatocellular carcinoma</topic><topic>Hepatology</topic><topic>Liver cancer</topic><topic>Liver cirrhosis</topic><topic>Liver diseases</topic><topic>Liver neoplasms</topic><topic>Markov chains</topic><topic>Metabolic syndrome</topic><topic>Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease</topic><topic>Obesity</topic><topic>Surveillance</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Adams, Leon A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roberts, Stuart K</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Strasser, Simone I</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mahady, Suzanne E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Powell, Elizabeth</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Estes, Chris</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Razavi, Homie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>George, Jacob</creatorcontrib><collection>Wiley Online Library Open Access</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Immunology Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Adams, Leon A</au><au>Roberts, Stuart K</au><au>Strasser, Simone I</au><au>Mahady, Suzanne E</au><au>Powell, Elizabeth</au><au>Estes, Chris</au><au>Razavi, Homie</au><au>George, Jacob</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019–2030</atitle><jtitle>Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology</jtitle><addtitle>J Gastroenterol Hepatol</addtitle><date>2020-09</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>35</volume><issue>9</issue><spage>1628</spage><epage>1635</epage><pages>1628-1635</pages><issn>0815-9319</issn><eissn>1440-1746</eissn><abstract>Background and Aim
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.
Methods
A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long‐term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.
Results
Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000–6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000–7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100–3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100–6100) deaths in 2030.
Conclusions
Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.</abstract><cop>Australia</cop><pub>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</pub><pmid>32048317</pmid><doi>10.1111/jgh.15009</doi><tpages>8</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9015-7997</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2367-6535</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0815-9319 |
| ispartof | Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology, 2020-09, Vol.35 (9), p.1628-1635 |
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| language | eng |
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| source | Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete |
| subjects | Clinical Hepatology Diabetes mellitus Fatty liver Fibrosis Hepatocellular carcinoma Hepatology Liver cancer Liver cirrhosis Liver diseases Liver neoplasms Markov chains Metabolic syndrome Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease Obesity Surveillance |
| title | Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019–2030 |
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