The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters

The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters

Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that genera...

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Veröffentlicht in:Environmental science & policy 2020-12, Vol.114, p.614-618
1. Verfasser: Flyvbjerg, Bent
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Building back better
Climate crisis
Covid-19
Discussion
Fat-tailed risk
Pandemics
Regression to the tail
Risk
Risk mitigation
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description Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that generate such extreme risk, and for navigating it, for government, business, and the public?
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.013
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ispartof Environmental science & policy, 2020-12, Vol.114, p.614-618
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source Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals
subjects Building back better
Climate crisis
Covid-19
Discussion
Fat-tailed risk
Pandemics
Regression to the tail
Risk
Risk mitigation
title The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters
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