The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters

Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that genera...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:	Environmental science & policy 2020-12, Vol.114, p.614-618
1. Verfasser:	Flyvbjerg, Bent
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Building back better Climate crisis Covid-19 Discussion Fat-tailed risk Pandemics Regression to the tail Risk Risk mitigation
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
Tags:	Tag hinzufügen Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!

Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that generate such extreme risk, and for navigating it, for government, business, and the public?
ISSN:	1462-9011 1873-6416
DOI:	10.1016/j.envsci.2020.08.013