Identification and estimation of the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-19

This paper studies the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-19. First, I show that the model is poorly identified from the observed number of deaths and confirmed cases. There are many sets of parameters that are observationally equivalent in the short run but lead to markedly different long run forecasts...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of econometrics 2021-01, Vol.220 (1), p.63-85
1. Verfasser:	Korolev, Ivan
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Analysis Bias Coronaviruses COVID-19 Deaths Epidemics Epidemiology Estimating techniques Forecasting Parameter identification Seemingly unrelated equations SEIR model Underreporting
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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