Prediction Model Based on the Combination of Cytokines and Lymphocyte Subsets for Prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Background There are currently rare satisfactory markers for predicting the death of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study is to establish a model based on the combination of serum cytokines and lymphocyte subsets for predicting the prognosis of the disease. Method...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of clinical immunology 2020-10, Vol.40 (7), p.960-969
Hauptverfasser: Luo, Ying, Mao, Liyan, Yuan, Xu, Xue, Ying, Lin, Qun, Tang, Guoxing, Song, Huijuan, Wang, Feng, Sun, Ziyong
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container_issue 7
container_start_page 960
container_title Journal of clinical immunology
container_volume 40
creator Luo, Ying
Mao, Liyan
Yuan, Xu
Xue, Ying
Lin, Qun
Tang, Guoxing
Song, Huijuan
Wang, Feng
Sun, Ziyong
description Background There are currently rare satisfactory markers for predicting the death of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study is to establish a model based on the combination of serum cytokines and lymphocyte subsets for predicting the prognosis of the disease. Methods A total of 739 participants with COVID-19 were enrolled at Tongji Hospital from February to April 2020 and classified into fatal ( n  = 51) and survived ( n  = 688) groups according to the patient’s outcome. Cytokine profile and lymphocyte subset analysis was performed simultaneously. Results The fatal patients exhibited a significant lower number of lymphocytes including B cells, CD4 + T cells, CD8 + T cells, and NK cells and remarkably higher concentrations of cytokines including interleukin-2 receptor, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α on admission compared with the survived subjects. A model based on the combination of interleukin-8 and the numbers of CD4 + T cells and NK cells showed a good performance in predicting the death of patients with COVID-19. When the threshold of 0.075 was used, the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 90.20% and 90.26%, respectively. Meanwhile, interleukin-8 was found to have a potential value in predicting the length of hospital stay until death. Conclusions Significant increase of cytokines and decrease of lymphocyte subsets are found positively correlated with in-hospital death. A model based on the combination of three markers provides an attractive approach to predict the prognosis of COVID-19.
doi_str_mv 10.1007/s10875-020-00821-7
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The aim of this study is to establish a model based on the combination of serum cytokines and lymphocyte subsets for predicting the prognosis of the disease. Methods A total of 739 participants with COVID-19 were enrolled at Tongji Hospital from February to April 2020 and classified into fatal ( n  = 51) and survived ( n  = 688) groups according to the patient’s outcome. Cytokine profile and lymphocyte subset analysis was performed simultaneously. Results The fatal patients exhibited a significant lower number of lymphocytes including B cells, CD4 + T cells, CD8 + T cells, and NK cells and remarkably higher concentrations of cytokines including interleukin-2 receptor, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α on admission compared with the survived subjects. A model based on the combination of interleukin-8 and the numbers of CD4 + T cells and NK cells showed a good performance in predicting the death of patients with COVID-19. When the threshold of 0.075 was used, the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 90.20% and 90.26%, respectively. Meanwhile, interleukin-8 was found to have a potential value in predicting the length of hospital stay until death. Conclusions Significant increase of cytokines and decrease of lymphocyte subsets are found positively correlated with in-hospital death. A model based on the combination of three markers provides an attractive approach to predict the prognosis of COVID-19.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0271-9142</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-2592</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10875-020-00821-7</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32661797</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New York: Springer US</publisher><subject>Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Betacoronavirus - genetics ; Betacoronavirus - immunology ; Betacoronavirus - isolation &amp; purification ; Biomarkers - blood ; Biomedical and Life Sciences ; Biomedicine ; CD4 antigen ; CD8 antigen ; China - epidemiology ; Clinical Laboratory Techniques - methods ; Coronavirus Infections - blood ; Coronavirus Infections - diagnosis ; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections - immunology ; Coronavirus Infections - mortality ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 Testing ; Cytokines ; Cytokines - blood ; Cytokines - immunology ; Death ; Female ; Humans ; Immunology ; Infectious Diseases ; Interleukin 2 ; Interleukin 6 ; Interleukin 8 ; Internal Medicine ; Length of Stay ; Lymphocyte Count ; Lymphocyte Subsets - immunology ; Lymphocytes ; Lymphocytes B ; Lymphocytes T ; Male ; Medical Microbiology ; Middle Aged ; Models, Biological ; Original ; Original Article ; Pandemics ; Patients ; Pneumonia, Viral - blood ; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral - immunology ; Pneumonia, Viral - mortality ; Prediction models ; Prognosis ; Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Risk Assessment - methods ; RNA, Viral - isolation &amp; purification ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Tumor necrosis factor-α</subject><ispartof>Journal of clinical immunology, 2020-10, Vol.40 (7), p.960-969</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2020</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2020. 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The aim of this study is to establish a model based on the combination of serum cytokines and lymphocyte subsets for predicting the prognosis of the disease. Methods A total of 739 participants with COVID-19 were enrolled at Tongji Hospital from February to April 2020 and classified into fatal ( n  = 51) and survived ( n  = 688) groups according to the patient’s outcome. Cytokine profile and lymphocyte subset analysis was performed simultaneously. Results The fatal patients exhibited a significant lower number of lymphocytes including B cells, CD4 + T cells, CD8 + T cells, and NK cells and remarkably higher concentrations of cytokines including interleukin-2 receptor, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α on admission compared with the survived subjects. A model based on the combination of interleukin-8 and the numbers of CD4 + T cells and NK cells showed a good performance in predicting the death of patients with COVID-19. When the threshold of 0.075 was used, the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 90.20% and 90.26%, respectively. Meanwhile, interleukin-8 was found to have a potential value in predicting the length of hospital stay until death. Conclusions Significant increase of cytokines and decrease of lymphocyte subsets are found positively correlated with in-hospital death. 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The aim of this study is to establish a model based on the combination of serum cytokines and lymphocyte subsets for predicting the prognosis of the disease. Methods A total of 739 participants with COVID-19 were enrolled at Tongji Hospital from February to April 2020 and classified into fatal ( n  = 51) and survived ( n  = 688) groups according to the patient’s outcome. Cytokine profile and lymphocyte subset analysis was performed simultaneously. Results The fatal patients exhibited a significant lower number of lymphocytes including B cells, CD4 + T cells, CD8 + T cells, and NK cells and remarkably higher concentrations of cytokines including interleukin-2 receptor, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α on admission compared with the survived subjects. A model based on the combination of interleukin-8 and the numbers of CD4 + T cells and NK cells showed a good performance in predicting the death of patients with COVID-19. When the threshold of 0.075 was used, the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 90.20% and 90.26%, respectively. Meanwhile, interleukin-8 was found to have a potential value in predicting the length of hospital stay until death. Conclusions Significant increase of cytokines and decrease of lymphocyte subsets are found positively correlated with in-hospital death. A model based on the combination of three markers provides an attractive approach to predict the prognosis of COVID-19.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>Springer US</pub><pmid>32661797</pmid><doi>10.1007/s10875-020-00821-7</doi><tpages>10</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Betacoronavirus - genetics
Betacoronavirus - immunology
Betacoronavirus - isolation & purification
Biomarkers - blood
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Biomedicine
CD4 antigen
CD8 antigen
China - epidemiology
Clinical Laboratory Techniques - methods
Coronavirus Infections - blood
Coronavirus Infections - diagnosis
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - immunology
Coronavirus Infections - mortality
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 Testing
Cytokines
Cytokines - blood
Cytokines - immunology
Death
Female
Humans
Immunology
Infectious Diseases
Interleukin 2
Interleukin 6
Interleukin 8
Internal Medicine
Length of Stay
Lymphocyte Count
Lymphocyte Subsets - immunology
Lymphocytes
Lymphocytes B
Lymphocytes T
Male
Medical Microbiology
Middle Aged
Models, Biological
Original
Original Article
Pandemics
Patients
Pneumonia, Viral - blood
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - immunology
Pneumonia, Viral - mortality
Prediction models
Prognosis
Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction
Risk Assessment - methods
RNA, Viral - isolation & purification
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Tumor necrosis factor-α
title Prediction Model Based on the Combination of Cytokines and Lymphocyte Subsets for Prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection
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