The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran
The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the expected number of new cases in Shahroud in Northeastern Iran. The R0 of COVID-19 was estimated using the serial interval distribution and the number of incidence c...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Epidemiology and infection 2020-01, Vol.148, p.e115-e115, Article e115 |
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| creator | Khosravi, A. Chaman, R. Rohani-Rasaf, M. Zare, F. Mehravaran, S. Emamian, M. H. |
| description | The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the expected number of new cases in Shahroud in Northeastern Iran. The R0 of COVID-19 was estimated using the serial interval distribution and the number of incidence cases. The 30-day probable incidence and cumulative incidence were predicted using the assumption that daily incidence follows a Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. Data analysis was done using ‘earlyR’ and ‘projections’ packages in R software. The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1−3.4) for the COVID-19 epidemic in the early 14 days and decreased to 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.25) by the end of day 42. The expected average number of new cases in Shahroud was 9.0 ± 3.8 cases/day, which means an estimated total of 271 (95% CI: 178–383) new cases for the period between 02 April to 03 May 2020. By day 67 (27 April), the effective reproduction number (Rt), which had a descending trend and was around 1, reduced to 0.70. Based on the Rt for the last 21 days (days 46–67 of the epidemic), the prediction for 27 April to 26 May is a mean daily cases of 2.9 ± 2.0 with 87 (48–136) new cases. In order to maintain R below 1, we strongly recommend enforcing and continuing the current preventive measures, restricting travel and providing screening tests for a larger proportion of the population. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1017/S0950268820001247 |
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H.</creator><creatorcontrib>Khosravi, A. ; Chaman, R. ; Rohani-Rasaf, M. ; Zare, F. ; Mehravaran, S. ; Emamian, M. H.</creatorcontrib><description>The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the expected number of new cases in Shahroud in Northeastern Iran. The R0 of COVID-19 was estimated using the serial interval distribution and the number of incidence cases. The 30-day probable incidence and cumulative incidence were predicted using the assumption that daily incidence follows a Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. Data analysis was done using ‘earlyR’ and ‘projections’ packages in R software. The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1−3.4) for the COVID-19 epidemic in the early 14 days and decreased to 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.25) by the end of day 42. The expected average number of new cases in Shahroud was 9.0 ± 3.8 cases/day, which means an estimated total of 271 (95% CI: 178–383) new cases for the period between 02 April to 03 May 2020. By day 67 (27 April), the effective reproduction number (Rt), which had a descending trend and was around 1, reduced to 0.70. Based on the Rt for the last 21 days (days 46–67 of the epidemic), the prediction for 27 April to 26 May is a mean daily cases of 2.9 ± 2.0 with 87 (48–136) new cases. In order to maintain R below 1, we strongly recommend enforcing and continuing the current preventive measures, restricting travel and providing screening tests for a larger proportion of the population.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0950-2688</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1469-4409</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1017/S0950268820001247</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32517845</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press</publisher><subject>Basic Reproduction Number ; Communicable Disease Control ; Confidence intervals ; Contact Tracing ; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections - transmission ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; Data analysis ; Disease transmission ; Epidemics ; Holidays & special occasions ; Humans ; Infections ; Iran - epidemiology ; Laboratories ; Models, Biological ; Original Paper ; Pandemics - prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral - transmission ; Poisson distribution ; Public health ; Reproduction ; Statistical analysis ; Viral diseases</subject><ispartof>Epidemiology and infection, 2020-01, Vol.148, p.e115-e115, Article e115</ispartof><rights>Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. 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H.</creatorcontrib><title>The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran</title><title>Epidemiology and infection</title><addtitle>Epidemiol. Infect</addtitle><description>The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the expected number of new cases in Shahroud in Northeastern Iran. The R0 of COVID-19 was estimated using the serial interval distribution and the number of incidence cases. The 30-day probable incidence and cumulative incidence were predicted using the assumption that daily incidence follows a Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. Data analysis was done using ‘earlyR’ and ‘projections’ packages in R software. The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1−3.4) for the COVID-19 epidemic in the early 14 days and decreased to 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.25) by the end of day 42. The expected average number of new cases in Shahroud was 9.0 ± 3.8 cases/day, which means an estimated total of 271 (95% CI: 178–383) new cases for the period between 02 April to 03 May 2020. By day 67 (27 April), the effective reproduction number (Rt), which had a descending trend and was around 1, reduced to 0.70. Based on the Rt for the last 21 days (days 46–67 of the epidemic), the prediction for 27 April to 26 May is a mean daily cases of 2.9 ± 2.0 with 87 (48–136) new cases. In order to maintain R below 1, we strongly recommend enforcing and continuing the current preventive measures, restricting travel and providing screening tests for a larger proportion of the population.</description><subject>Basic Reproduction Number</subject><subject>Communicable Disease Control</subject><subject>Confidence intervals</subject><subject>Contact Tracing</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - transmission</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>Data analysis</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Holidays & special occasions</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Iran - epidemiology</subject><subject>Laboratories</subject><subject>Models, Biological</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Pandemics - prevention & control</subject><subject>Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology</subject><subject>Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control</subject><subject>Pneumonia, Viral - transmission</subject><subject>Poisson distribution</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Reproduction</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Viral diseases</subject><issn>0950-2688</issn><issn>1469-4409</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>IKXGN</sourceid><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kc1u1DAUhS1ERYfCA7BBltgUiYDtOLG9QUIDtCNV6qKFbeTYNx1XiR3sZBA8PY5m2vIjVpbO-c7xvboIvaDkLSVUvLsiqiKslpIRQijj4hFaUV6rgnOiHqPVYheLf4yepnSbIcWkeIKOS1ZRIXm1Qt-vt4BbnZzBEcYY7GwmFzz289BCxNpbPEawbq-GDk-Zh9FZGHIkuZ9wJ_qwgx6bEIPXOxfnhE_Xl183HwuqXmPn8dVWb2OY7Ru8ido_Q0ed7hM8P7wn6MvnT9fr8-Li8myz_nBRmJrKqaiUqnVHpCYgDJUSQFbMtGWWDGOms4qbmnPoCHSWyFIaxbJESg01lIKXJ-j9vnec2wGsAT9F3TdjdIOOP5qgXfOn4922uQm7RpSM0VrkgtNDQQzfZkhTM7hkoO-1hzCnhnFKq0qRUmX01V_obZijz-stVE0EVWKh6J4yMaQUobsfhpJmOWvzz1lz5uXvW9wn7u6YgfJQqoc2OnsDD3__v_YXVhSszQ</recordid><startdate>20200101</startdate><enddate>20200101</enddate><creator>Khosravi, A.</creator><creator>Chaman, R.</creator><creator>Rohani-Rasaf, M.</creator><creator>Zare, F.</creator><creator>Mehravaran, S.</creator><creator>Emamian, M. 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H.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c618t-5996af08a0e7c188ee852cb3f08c22cfd94c644ef0efd0838c9294c03ae6e3743</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Basic Reproduction Number</topic><topic>Communicable Disease Control</topic><topic>Confidence intervals</topic><topic>Contact Tracing</topic><topic>Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology</topic><topic>Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control</topic><topic>Coronavirus Infections - transmission</topic><topic>Coronaviruses</topic><topic>COVID-19</topic><topic>Data analysis</topic><topic>Disease transmission</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>Holidays & special occasions</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infections</topic><topic>Iran - epidemiology</topic><topic>Laboratories</topic><topic>Models, Biological</topic><topic>Original Paper</topic><topic>Pandemics - prevention & control</topic><topic>Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology</topic><topic>Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control</topic><topic>Pneumonia, Viral - transmission</topic><topic>Poisson distribution</topic><topic>Public health</topic><topic>Reproduction</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Viral diseases</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Khosravi, A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chaman, R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rohani-Rasaf, M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zare, F.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mehravaran, S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Emamian, M. 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H.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran</atitle><jtitle>Epidemiology and infection</jtitle><addtitle>Epidemiol. Infect</addtitle><date>2020-01-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>148</volume><spage>e115</spage><epage>e115</epage><pages>e115-e115</pages><artnum>e115</artnum><issn>0950-2688</issn><eissn>1469-4409</eissn><abstract>The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the expected number of new cases in Shahroud in Northeastern Iran. The R0 of COVID-19 was estimated using the serial interval distribution and the number of incidence cases. The 30-day probable incidence and cumulative incidence were predicted using the assumption that daily incidence follows a Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. Data analysis was done using ‘earlyR’ and ‘projections’ packages in R software. The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1−3.4) for the COVID-19 epidemic in the early 14 days and decreased to 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.25) by the end of day 42. The expected average number of new cases in Shahroud was 9.0 ± 3.8 cases/day, which means an estimated total of 271 (95% CI: 178–383) new cases for the period between 02 April to 03 May 2020. By day 67 (27 April), the effective reproduction number (Rt), which had a descending trend and was around 1, reduced to 0.70. Based on the Rt for the last 21 days (days 46–67 of the epidemic), the prediction for 27 April to 26 May is a mean daily cases of 2.9 ± 2.0 with 87 (48–136) new cases. In order to maintain R below 1, we strongly recommend enforcing and continuing the current preventive measures, restricting travel and providing screening tests for a larger proportion of the population.</abstract><cop>Cambridge, UK</cop><pub>Cambridge University Press</pub><pmid>32517845</pmid><doi>10.1017/S0950268820001247</doi><tpages>7</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1994-1105</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Basic Reproduction Number Communicable Disease Control Confidence intervals Contact Tracing Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control Coronavirus Infections - transmission Coronaviruses COVID-19 Data analysis Disease transmission Epidemics Holidays & special occasions Humans Infections Iran - epidemiology Laboratories Models, Biological Original Paper Pandemics - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - transmission Poisson distribution Public health Reproduction Statistical analysis Viral diseases |
| title | The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran |
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