Two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spreading of a novel virus from the outbreak epicentre. The case of COVID-19
We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regions by travellers. The...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Epidemiology and infection 2020-01, Vol.148, p.e109-e109, Article e109 |
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| container_title | Epidemiology and infection |
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| creator | Massad, Eduardo Amaku, Marcos Wilder-Smith, Annelies Costa dos Santos, Paulo Cesar Struchiner, Claudio Jose Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra |
| description | We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regions by travellers. The second model calculates the probability that an infected traveller will generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country. Although this paper focuses on the data from China, our methods can be adapted to calculate the risk of importation and subsequent outbreaks. We found an average R0 = 5.31 (ranging from 4.08 to 7.91) and a risk of spreading of 0.75 latent individuals per 1000 travellers. In addition, one infective traveller would be able to generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country with a probability of 23%. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1017/S0950268820001223 |
| format | Article |
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| ispartof | Epidemiology and infection, 2020-01, Vol.148, p.e109-e109, Article e109 |
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| subjects | Betacoronavirus Coronavirus Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronaviruses COVID-19 Disease Outbreaks Disease transmission Exports Humans Importation Infections mathematical modelling Mathematical models Models, Theoretical Mortality Original Paper Outbreaks Pandemics Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Population Probability Risk SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Travel Travellers Viral diseases Viruses |
| title | Two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spreading of a novel virus from the outbreak epicentre. The case of COVID-19 |
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