A nomogram to predict the risk of hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in Cirrhotic Patients
Background and Aim: Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of decompensated liver cirrhosis, affecting the prognosis of patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS). We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after...
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description | Background and Aim: Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of decompensated liver cirrhosis, affecting the prognosis of patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS). We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after TIPS in cirrhotic patients and select appropriate candidates for TIPS. Methods: Cirrhotic patients underwent TIPS from 2015 to 2018 in our department were included. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted to estimate the predictors of overt HE (OHE) after TIPS within one year. A nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazard model using data from a retrospective training cohort (70% of the patients) was developed. Then the prediction model was validated in the remaining 30% patients by Harrell’s C-indexes, ROC curves and calibration plots. Results: Of 373 patients, 117 developed postoperative OHE (31.4%). The training and validation groups comprised 83 (31.4%) and 34 (31.2%) patients, respectively. The cumulative survival rates of patients with HE at 1, 2 and 3 years were 90%, 83% and 76%, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (CTP class), diabetes mellitus (DM), serum creatinine and serum sodium (C-index = 0.772). The C-index for HEFS prediction was 0.773 for the validation cohort. The ROC for predicting HEFS was 0.809 and 0.783, respectively. Conclusions: We created a nomogram of predicting postoperative HEFS in cirrhotic patients received TIPS. This nomogram could be an important tool of HE risk prediction before TIPS to guide the therapeutic strategy in cirrhotic patients. |
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We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after TIPS in cirrhotic patients and select appropriate candidates for TIPS. Methods: Cirrhotic patients underwent TIPS from 2015 to 2018 in our department were included. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted to estimate the predictors of overt HE (OHE) after TIPS within one year. A nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazard model using data from a retrospective training cohort (70% of the patients) was developed. Then the prediction model was validated in the remaining 30% patients by Harrell’s C-indexes, ROC curves and calibration plots. Results: Of 373 patients, 117 developed postoperative OHE (31.4%). The training and validation groups comprised 83 (31.4%) and 34 (31.2%) patients, respectively. The cumulative survival rates of patients with HE at 1, 2 and 3 years were 90%, 83% and 76%, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (CTP class), diabetes mellitus (DM), serum creatinine and serum sodium (C-index = 0.772). The C-index for HEFS prediction was 0.773 for the validation cohort. The ROC for predicting HEFS was 0.809 and 0.783, respectively. Conclusions: We created a nomogram of predicting postoperative HEFS in cirrhotic patients received TIPS. This nomogram could be an important tool of HE risk prediction before TIPS to guide the therapeutic strategy in cirrhotic patients.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2045-2322</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2045-2322</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-65227-2</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32523059</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>London: Nature Publishing Group UK</publisher><subject>692/699/1503/1607/1560 ; 692/699/1503/197 ; Aged ; Cirrhosis ; Cohort Studies ; Creatinine ; Diabetes mellitus ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Hepatic encephalopathy ; Hepatic Encephalopathy - diagnosis ; Hepatic Encephalopathy - etiology ; Hepatic Encephalopathy - mortality ; Humanities and Social Sciences ; Humans ; Liver cirrhosis ; Liver Cirrhosis - mortality ; Liver Cirrhosis - surgery ; Male ; Medical prognosis ; Middle Aged ; multidisciplinary ; Nomograms ; Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic ; Postoperative Complications - diagnosis ; Postoperative Complications - mortality ; Prediction models ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk ; Science ; Science (multidisciplinary) ; Shunts ; Survival ; Training</subject><ispartof>Scientific reports, 2020-06, Vol.10 (1), p.9381-9381, Article 9381</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2020</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2020. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c474t-749656a76998499d3bce19d73856514e9220514fb6f60f000829a45e83106dd23</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c474t-749656a76998499d3bce19d73856514e9220514fb6f60f000829a45e83106dd23</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7287049/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7287049/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,860,881,27901,27902,41096,42165,51551,53766,53768</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32523059$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Yin, Xiaochun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Feng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guo, Huiwen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Peng, Chunyan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Wei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xiao, Jiangqiang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Yi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zou, Xiaoping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Ming</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhuge, Yuzheng</creatorcontrib><title>A nomogram to predict the risk of hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in Cirrhotic Patients</title><title>Scientific reports</title><addtitle>Sci Rep</addtitle><addtitle>Sci Rep</addtitle><description>Background and Aim: Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of decompensated liver cirrhosis, affecting the prognosis of patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS). We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after TIPS in cirrhotic patients and select appropriate candidates for TIPS. Methods: Cirrhotic patients underwent TIPS from 2015 to 2018 in our department were included. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted to estimate the predictors of overt HE (OHE) after TIPS within one year. A nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazard model using data from a retrospective training cohort (70% of the patients) was developed. Then the prediction model was validated in the remaining 30% patients by Harrell’s C-indexes, ROC curves and calibration plots. Results: Of 373 patients, 117 developed postoperative OHE (31.4%). The training and validation groups comprised 83 (31.4%) and 34 (31.2%) patients, respectively. The cumulative survival rates of patients with HE at 1, 2 and 3 years were 90%, 83% and 76%, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (CTP class), diabetes mellitus (DM), serum creatinine and serum sodium (C-index = 0.772). The C-index for HEFS prediction was 0.773 for the validation cohort. The ROC for predicting HEFS was 0.809 and 0.783, respectively. Conclusions: We created a nomogram of predicting postoperative HEFS in cirrhotic patients received TIPS. This nomogram could be an important tool of HE risk prediction before TIPS to guide the therapeutic strategy in cirrhotic patients.</description><subject>692/699/1503/1607/1560</subject><subject>692/699/1503/197</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Cirrhosis</subject><subject>Cohort Studies</subject><subject>Creatinine</subject><subject>Diabetes mellitus</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Follow-Up Studies</subject><subject>Hepatic encephalopathy</subject><subject>Hepatic Encephalopathy - diagnosis</subject><subject>Hepatic Encephalopathy - etiology</subject><subject>Hepatic Encephalopathy - mortality</subject><subject>Humanities and Social Sciences</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Liver cirrhosis</subject><subject>Liver Cirrhosis - mortality</subject><subject>Liver Cirrhosis - surgery</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medical prognosis</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>multidisciplinary</subject><subject>Nomograms</subject><subject>Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic</subject><subject>Postoperative Complications - diagnosis</subject><subject>Postoperative Complications - mortality</subject><subject>Prediction models</subject><subject>Prognosis</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>Risk</subject><subject>Science</subject><subject>Science (multidisciplinary)</subject><subject>Shunts</subject><subject>Survival</subject><subject>Training</subject><issn>2045-2322</issn><issn>2045-2322</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>C6C</sourceid><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kcFu1DAQhiMEolXpC3BAlrhwSbHHdhJfkKoVUKRKcICz5U0mGy-JHWwHaa88Oc5uWwoHfBmP5pt_ZvQXxUtGrxjlzdsomFRNSYGWlQSoS3hSnAMVsgQO8PTR_6y4jHFP85OgBFPPizMOEjiV6rz4dU2cn_wumIkkT-aAnW0TSQOSYON34nsy4GySbQm6FufBjD6nw4GYPmEgKRgX98tuGU0g1uX0Hp99SD4eYsIpZ3FYXMoA2dgQBr8CXzKGLsUXxbPejBEv7-JF8e3D-6-bm_L288dPm-vbshW1SGUtVCUrU1dKNUKpjm9bZKqreSMryQQqAJpjv636ivb52gaUERIbzmjVdcAvincn3XnZTti1uG476jnYyYSD9sbqvyvODnrnf-oampoKlQXe3AkE_2PBmPRkY4vjaBz6JWoQDIBJqdZZr_9B934JLp93pJhk7CgIJ6oNPsaA_cMyjOrVZX1yWWeX9dFlvUq_enzGQ8u9pxngJyDmktth-DP7P7K_AahEtHI</recordid><startdate>20200610</startdate><enddate>20200610</enddate><creator>Yin, Xiaochun</creator><creator>Zhang, Feng</creator><creator>Guo, Huiwen</creator><creator>Peng, Chunyan</creator><creator>Zhang, Wei</creator><creator>Xiao, Jiangqiang</creator><creator>Wang, Yi</creator><creator>Zou, Xiaoping</creator><creator>Zhang, Ming</creator><creator>Zhuge, Yuzheng</creator><general>Nature Publishing Group UK</general><general>Nature Publishing Group</general><scope>C6C</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88A</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20200610</creationdate><title>A nomogram to predict the risk of hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in Cirrhotic Patients</title><author>Yin, Xiaochun ; Zhang, Feng ; Guo, Huiwen ; Peng, Chunyan ; Zhang, Wei ; Xiao, Jiangqiang ; Wang, Yi ; Zou, Xiaoping ; Zhang, Ming ; Zhuge, Yuzheng</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c474t-749656a76998499d3bce19d73856514e9220514fb6f60f000829a45e83106dd23</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>692/699/1503/1607/1560</topic><topic>692/699/1503/197</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Cirrhosis</topic><topic>Cohort Studies</topic><topic>Creatinine</topic><topic>Diabetes mellitus</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Follow-Up Studies</topic><topic>Hepatic encephalopathy</topic><topic>Hepatic Encephalopathy - diagnosis</topic><topic>Hepatic Encephalopathy - etiology</topic><topic>Hepatic Encephalopathy - mortality</topic><topic>Humanities and Social Sciences</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Liver cirrhosis</topic><topic>Liver Cirrhosis - mortality</topic><topic>Liver Cirrhosis - surgery</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Medical prognosis</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>multidisciplinary</topic><topic>Nomograms</topic><topic>Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic</topic><topic>Postoperative Complications - diagnosis</topic><topic>Postoperative Complications - mortality</topic><topic>Prediction models</topic><topic>Prognosis</topic><topic>Retrospective Studies</topic><topic>Risk</topic><topic>Science</topic><topic>Science (multidisciplinary)</topic><topic>Shunts</topic><topic>Survival</topic><topic>Training</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Yin, Xiaochun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Feng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guo, Huiwen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Peng, Chunyan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Wei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xiao, Jiangqiang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Yi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zou, Xiaoping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Ming</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhuge, Yuzheng</creatorcontrib><collection>Springer Nature OA Free Journals</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Biology Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Scientific reports</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Yin, Xiaochun</au><au>Zhang, Feng</au><au>Guo, Huiwen</au><au>Peng, Chunyan</au><au>Zhang, Wei</au><au>Xiao, Jiangqiang</au><au>Wang, Yi</au><au>Zou, Xiaoping</au><au>Zhang, Ming</au><au>Zhuge, Yuzheng</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>A nomogram to predict the risk of hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in Cirrhotic Patients</atitle><jtitle>Scientific reports</jtitle><stitle>Sci Rep</stitle><addtitle>Sci Rep</addtitle><date>2020-06-10</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>10</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>9381</spage><epage>9381</epage><pages>9381-9381</pages><artnum>9381</artnum><issn>2045-2322</issn><eissn>2045-2322</eissn><abstract>Background and Aim: Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of decompensated liver cirrhosis, affecting the prognosis of patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS). We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after TIPS in cirrhotic patients and select appropriate candidates for TIPS. Methods: Cirrhotic patients underwent TIPS from 2015 to 2018 in our department were included. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted to estimate the predictors of overt HE (OHE) after TIPS within one year. A nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazard model using data from a retrospective training cohort (70% of the patients) was developed. Then the prediction model was validated in the remaining 30% patients by Harrell’s C-indexes, ROC curves and calibration plots. Results: Of 373 patients, 117 developed postoperative OHE (31.4%). The training and validation groups comprised 83 (31.4%) and 34 (31.2%) patients, respectively. The cumulative survival rates of patients with HE at 1, 2 and 3 years were 90%, 83% and 76%, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (CTP class), diabetes mellitus (DM), serum creatinine and serum sodium (C-index = 0.772). The C-index for HEFS prediction was 0.773 for the validation cohort. The ROC for predicting HEFS was 0.809 and 0.783, respectively. Conclusions: We created a nomogram of predicting postoperative HEFS in cirrhotic patients received TIPS. This nomogram could be an important tool of HE risk prediction before TIPS to guide the therapeutic strategy in cirrhotic patients.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>Nature Publishing Group UK</pub><pmid>32523059</pmid><doi>10.1038/s41598-020-65227-2</doi><tpages>1</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | 692/699/1503/1607/1560 692/699/1503/197 Aged Cirrhosis Cohort Studies Creatinine Diabetes mellitus Female Follow-Up Studies Hepatic encephalopathy Hepatic Encephalopathy - diagnosis Hepatic Encephalopathy - etiology Hepatic Encephalopathy - mortality Humanities and Social Sciences Humans Liver cirrhosis Liver Cirrhosis - mortality Liver Cirrhosis - surgery Male Medical prognosis Middle Aged multidisciplinary Nomograms Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic Postoperative Complications - diagnosis Postoperative Complications - mortality Prediction models Prognosis Retrospective Studies Risk Science Science (multidisciplinary) Shunts Survival Training |
title | A nomogram to predict the risk of hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in Cirrhotic Patients |
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