A nomogram to predict the risk of hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in Cirrhotic Patients

Background and Aim: Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of decompensated liver cirrhosis, affecting the prognosis of patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS). We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after...

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Veröffentlicht in:Scientific reports 2020-06, Vol.10 (1), p.9381-9381, Article 9381
Hauptverfasser: Yin, Xiaochun, Zhang, Feng, Guo, Huiwen, Peng, Chunyan, Zhang, Wei, Xiao, Jiangqiang, Wang, Yi, Zou, Xiaoping, Zhang, Ming, Zhuge, Yuzheng
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container_title Scientific reports
container_volume 10
creator Yin, Xiaochun
Zhang, Feng
Guo, Huiwen
Peng, Chunyan
Zhang, Wei
Xiao, Jiangqiang
Wang, Yi
Zou, Xiaoping
Zhang, Ming
Zhuge, Yuzheng
description Background and Aim: Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of decompensated liver cirrhosis, affecting the prognosis of patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS). We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after TIPS in cirrhotic patients and select appropriate candidates for TIPS. Methods: Cirrhotic patients underwent TIPS from 2015 to 2018 in our department were included. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted to estimate the predictors of overt HE (OHE) after TIPS within one year. A nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazard model using data from a retrospective training cohort (70% of the patients) was developed. Then the prediction model was validated in the remaining 30% patients by Harrell’s C-indexes, ROC curves and calibration plots. Results: Of 373 patients, 117 developed postoperative OHE (31.4%). The training and validation groups comprised 83 (31.4%) and 34 (31.2%) patients, respectively. The cumulative survival rates of patients with HE at 1, 2 and 3 years were 90%, 83% and 76%, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (CTP class), diabetes mellitus (DM), serum creatinine and serum sodium (C-index = 0.772). The C-index for HEFS prediction was 0.773 for the validation cohort. The ROC for predicting HEFS was 0.809 and 0.783, respectively. Conclusions: We created a nomogram of predicting postoperative HEFS in cirrhotic patients received TIPS. This nomogram could be an important tool of HE risk prediction before TIPS to guide the therapeutic strategy in cirrhotic patients.
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We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after TIPS in cirrhotic patients and select appropriate candidates for TIPS. Methods: Cirrhotic patients underwent TIPS from 2015 to 2018 in our department were included. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted to estimate the predictors of overt HE (OHE) after TIPS within one year. A nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazard model using data from a retrospective training cohort (70% of the patients) was developed. Then the prediction model was validated in the remaining 30% patients by Harrell’s C-indexes, ROC curves and calibration plots. Results: Of 373 patients, 117 developed postoperative OHE (31.4%). The training and validation groups comprised 83 (31.4%) and 34 (31.2%) patients, respectively. The cumulative survival rates of patients with HE at 1, 2 and 3 years were 90%, 83% and 76%, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (CTP class), diabetes mellitus (DM), serum creatinine and serum sodium (C-index = 0.772). The C-index for HEFS prediction was 0.773 for the validation cohort. The ROC for predicting HEFS was 0.809 and 0.783, respectively. Conclusions: We created a nomogram of predicting postoperative HEFS in cirrhotic patients received TIPS. This nomogram could be an important tool of HE risk prediction before TIPS to guide the therapeutic strategy in cirrhotic patients.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2045-2322</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2045-2322</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-65227-2</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32523059</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>London: Nature Publishing Group UK</publisher><subject>692/699/1503/1607/1560 ; 692/699/1503/197 ; Aged ; Cirrhosis ; Cohort Studies ; Creatinine ; Diabetes mellitus ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Hepatic encephalopathy ; Hepatic Encephalopathy - diagnosis ; Hepatic Encephalopathy - etiology ; Hepatic Encephalopathy - mortality ; Humanities and Social Sciences ; Humans ; Liver cirrhosis ; Liver Cirrhosis - mortality ; Liver Cirrhosis - surgery ; Male ; Medical prognosis ; Middle Aged ; multidisciplinary ; Nomograms ; Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic ; Postoperative Complications - diagnosis ; Postoperative Complications - mortality ; Prediction models ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk ; Science ; Science (multidisciplinary) ; Shunts ; Survival ; Training</subject><ispartof>Scientific reports, 2020-06, Vol.10 (1), p.9381-9381, Article 9381</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2020</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2020. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). 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We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after TIPS in cirrhotic patients and select appropriate candidates for TIPS. Methods: Cirrhotic patients underwent TIPS from 2015 to 2018 in our department were included. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted to estimate the predictors of overt HE (OHE) after TIPS within one year. A nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazard model using data from a retrospective training cohort (70% of the patients) was developed. Then the prediction model was validated in the remaining 30% patients by Harrell’s C-indexes, ROC curves and calibration plots. Results: Of 373 patients, 117 developed postoperative OHE (31.4%). The training and validation groups comprised 83 (31.4%) and 34 (31.2%) patients, respectively. The cumulative survival rates of patients with HE at 1, 2 and 3 years were 90%, 83% and 76%, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (CTP class), diabetes mellitus (DM), serum creatinine and serum sodium (C-index = 0.772). The C-index for HEFS prediction was 0.773 for the validation cohort. The ROC for predicting HEFS was 0.809 and 0.783, respectively. Conclusions: We created a nomogram of predicting postoperative HEFS in cirrhotic patients received TIPS. 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We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after TIPS in cirrhotic patients and select appropriate candidates for TIPS. Methods: Cirrhotic patients underwent TIPS from 2015 to 2018 in our department were included. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted to estimate the predictors of overt HE (OHE) after TIPS within one year. A nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazard model using data from a retrospective training cohort (70% of the patients) was developed. Then the prediction model was validated in the remaining 30% patients by Harrell’s C-indexes, ROC curves and calibration plots. Results: Of 373 patients, 117 developed postoperative OHE (31.4%). The training and validation groups comprised 83 (31.4%) and 34 (31.2%) patients, respectively. The cumulative survival rates of patients with HE at 1, 2 and 3 years were 90%, 83% and 76%, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (CTP class), diabetes mellitus (DM), serum creatinine and serum sodium (C-index = 0.772). The C-index for HEFS prediction was 0.773 for the validation cohort. The ROC for predicting HEFS was 0.809 and 0.783, respectively. Conclusions: We created a nomogram of predicting postoperative HEFS in cirrhotic patients received TIPS. This nomogram could be an important tool of HE risk prediction before TIPS to guide the therapeutic strategy in cirrhotic patients.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>Nature Publishing Group UK</pub><pmid>32523059</pmid><doi>10.1038/s41598-020-65227-2</doi><tpages>1</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects 692/699/1503/1607/1560
692/699/1503/197
Aged
Cirrhosis
Cohort Studies
Creatinine
Diabetes mellitus
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Hepatic encephalopathy
Hepatic Encephalopathy - diagnosis
Hepatic Encephalopathy - etiology
Hepatic Encephalopathy - mortality
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Liver cirrhosis
Liver Cirrhosis - mortality
Liver Cirrhosis - surgery
Male
Medical prognosis
Middle Aged
multidisciplinary
Nomograms
Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic
Postoperative Complications - diagnosis
Postoperative Complications - mortality
Prediction models
Prognosis
Retrospective Studies
Risk
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Shunts
Survival
Training
title A nomogram to predict the risk of hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in Cirrhotic Patients
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