Estimation of the basic reproduction number, average incubation time, asymptomatic infection rate, and case fatality rate for COVID‐19: Meta‐analysis and sensitivity analysis
The coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) has been found to be caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). However, comprehensive knowledge of COVID‐19 remains incomplete and many important features are still unknown. This manuscript conducts a meta‐analysis and a sensi...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of medical virology 2020-11, Vol.92 (11), p.2543-2550 |
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| creator | He, Wenqing Yi, Grace Y. Zhu, Yayuan |
| description | The coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) has been found to be caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). However, comprehensive knowledge of COVID‐19 remains incomplete and many important features are still unknown. This manuscript conducts a meta‐analysis and a sensitivity study to answer the questions: What is the basic reproduction number? How long is the incubation time of the disease on average? What portion of infections are asymptomatic? And ultimately, what is the case fatality rate? Our studies estimate the basic reproduction number to be 3.15 with the 95% CI (2.41‐3.90), the average incubation time to be 5.08 days with the 95% CI (4.77‐5.39) (in day), the asymptomatic infection rate to be 46% with the 95% CI (18.48%‐73.60%), and the case fatality rate to be 2.72% with 95% CI (1.29%‐4.16%) where asymptomatic infections are accounted for. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/jmv.26041 |
| format | Article |
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However, comprehensive knowledge of COVID‐19 remains incomplete and many important features are still unknown. This manuscript conducts a meta‐analysis and a sensitivity study to answer the questions: What is the basic reproduction number? How long is the incubation time of the disease on average? What portion of infections are asymptomatic? And ultimately, what is the case fatality rate? Our studies estimate the basic reproduction number to be 3.15 with the 95% CI (2.41‐3.90), the average incubation time to be 5.08 days with the 95% CI (4.77‐5.39) (in day), the asymptomatic infection rate to be 46% with the 95% CI (18.48%‐73.60%), and the case fatality rate to be 2.72% with 95% CI (1.29%‐4.16%) where asymptomatic infections are accounted for.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0146-6615</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1096-9071</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/jmv.26041</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32470164</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</publisher><subject>Asymptomatic ; Asymptomatic infection ; asymptomatic infection rate ; Asymptomatic Infections - epidemiology ; Basic Reproduction Number ; case fatality rate ; Coronaviridae ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 - mortality ; COVID-19 - virology ; error‐contaminated data ; Fatalities ; Humans ; incubation time ; Infectious Disease Incubation Period ; Meta-analysis ; Reproduction ; Respiratory diseases ; SARS-CoV-2 - physiology ; Sensitivity analysis ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Viral diseases ; Virology</subject><ispartof>Journal of medical virology, 2020-11, Vol.92 (11), p.2543-2550</ispartof><rights>2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC</rights><rights>2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5371-ce2d756c006f469cea77ae45a380d1900e5b4967f05549507e351e984b9dcb793</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5371-ce2d756c006f469cea77ae45a380d1900e5b4967f05549507e351e984b9dcb793</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-8913-9273</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2Fjmv.26041$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2Fjmv.26041$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,1416,27922,27923,45572,45573</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32470164$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>He, Wenqing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yi, Grace Y.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhu, Yayuan</creatorcontrib><title>Estimation of the basic reproduction number, average incubation time, asymptomatic infection rate, and case fatality rate for COVID‐19: Meta‐analysis and sensitivity analysis</title><title>Journal of medical virology</title><addtitle>J Med Virol</addtitle><description>The coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) has been found to be caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). However, comprehensive knowledge of COVID‐19 remains incomplete and many important features are still unknown. This manuscript conducts a meta‐analysis and a sensitivity study to answer the questions: What is the basic reproduction number? How long is the incubation time of the disease on average? What portion of infections are asymptomatic? And ultimately, what is the case fatality rate? Our studies estimate the basic reproduction number to be 3.15 with the 95% CI (2.41‐3.90), the average incubation time to be 5.08 days with the 95% CI (4.77‐5.39) (in day), the asymptomatic infection rate to be 46% with the 95% CI (18.48%‐73.60%), and the case fatality rate to be 2.72% with 95% CI (1.29%‐4.16%) where asymptomatic infections are accounted for.</description><subject>Asymptomatic</subject><subject>Asymptomatic infection</subject><subject>asymptomatic infection rate</subject><subject>Asymptomatic Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>Basic Reproduction Number</subject><subject>case fatality rate</subject><subject>Coronaviridae</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>COVID-19 - mortality</subject><subject>COVID-19 - virology</subject><subject>error‐contaminated data</subject><subject>Fatalities</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>incubation time</subject><subject>Infectious Disease Incubation Period</subject><subject>Meta-analysis</subject><subject>Reproduction</subject><subject>Respiratory diseases</subject><subject>SARS-CoV-2 - physiology</subject><subject>Sensitivity analysis</subject><subject>Severe acute respiratory syndrome</subject><subject>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</subject><subject>Viral diseases</subject><subject>Virology</subject><issn>0146-6615</issn><issn>1096-9071</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp1ks1u1DAUhSMEokNhwQsgS2xAYtrrxD8xCyQ0FChq1Q10GznOTetREg-2M2h2PALPwiPxJDiTtgIkVrZ8vnN0bN8se0rhiALkx-t-e5QLYPRetqCgxFKBpPezBVAmlkJQfpA9CmENAKXK84fZQZEzCVSwRfbzJETb62jdQFxL4jWSWgdriMeNd81o9sow9jX6V0Rv0esrJHYwYz2bkhuTEHb9JropyCS1xdnndZzEoSFGByStjrqzcbc_J63zZHVxefru1_cfVL0m5xh12upBd7tgw94WcAg22u1kuhUeZw9a3QV8crMeZl_en3xefVyeXXw4Xb09WxpeSLo0mDeSCwMgWiaUQS2lRsZ1UUJDFQDymikhW-CcKQ4SC05RlaxWjamlKg6zN3PuZqx7bAwO0euu2vj0Xn5XOW2rv5XBXldXblvJvCwk4yngxU2Ad19HDLHqbTDYdXpAN4YqZ1DmIIDLhD7_B1270acLT1RqX4qCFYl6OVPGuxA8tndlKFTTJFRpEqr9JCT22Z_t78jbr0_A8Qx8sx3u_p9UfTq_nCN_A3SWwok</recordid><startdate>202011</startdate><enddate>202011</enddate><creator>He, Wenqing</creator><creator>Yi, Grace Y.</creator><creator>Zhu, Yayuan</creator><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><general>John Wiley and Sons Inc</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7TK</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8913-9273</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202011</creationdate><title>Estimation of the basic reproduction number, average incubation time, asymptomatic infection rate, and case fatality rate for COVID‐19: Meta‐analysis and sensitivity analysis</title><author>He, Wenqing ; Yi, Grace Y. ; Zhu, Yayuan</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c5371-ce2d756c006f469cea77ae45a380d1900e5b4967f05549507e351e984b9dcb793</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Asymptomatic</topic><topic>Asymptomatic infection</topic><topic>asymptomatic infection rate</topic><topic>Asymptomatic Infections - epidemiology</topic><topic>Basic Reproduction Number</topic><topic>case fatality rate</topic><topic>Coronaviridae</topic><topic>Coronaviruses</topic><topic>COVID-19</topic><topic>COVID-19 - mortality</topic><topic>COVID-19 - virology</topic><topic>error‐contaminated data</topic><topic>Fatalities</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>incubation time</topic><topic>Infectious Disease Incubation Period</topic><topic>Meta-analysis</topic><topic>Reproduction</topic><topic>Respiratory diseases</topic><topic>SARS-CoV-2 - physiology</topic><topic>Sensitivity analysis</topic><topic>Severe acute respiratory syndrome</topic><topic>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</topic><topic>Viral diseases</topic><topic>Virology</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>He, Wenqing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yi, Grace Y.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhu, Yayuan</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Neurosciences Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Journal of medical virology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>He, Wenqing</au><au>Yi, Grace Y.</au><au>Zhu, Yayuan</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Estimation of the basic reproduction number, average incubation time, asymptomatic infection rate, and case fatality rate for COVID‐19: Meta‐analysis and sensitivity analysis</atitle><jtitle>Journal of medical virology</jtitle><addtitle>J Med Virol</addtitle><date>2020-11</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>92</volume><issue>11</issue><spage>2543</spage><epage>2550</epage><pages>2543-2550</pages><issn>0146-6615</issn><eissn>1096-9071</eissn><abstract>The coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) has been found to be caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). However, comprehensive knowledge of COVID‐19 remains incomplete and many important features are still unknown. This manuscript conducts a meta‐analysis and a sensitivity study to answer the questions: What is the basic reproduction number? How long is the incubation time of the disease on average? What portion of infections are asymptomatic? And ultimately, what is the case fatality rate? Our studies estimate the basic reproduction number to be 3.15 with the 95% CI (2.41‐3.90), the average incubation time to be 5.08 days with the 95% CI (4.77‐5.39) (in day), the asymptomatic infection rate to be 46% with the 95% CI (18.48%‐73.60%), and the case fatality rate to be 2.72% with 95% CI (1.29%‐4.16%) where asymptomatic infections are accounted for.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</pub><pmid>32470164</pmid><doi>10.1002/jmv.26041</doi><tpages>8</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8913-9273</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Asymptomatic Asymptomatic infection asymptomatic infection rate Asymptomatic Infections - epidemiology Basic Reproduction Number case fatality rate Coronaviridae Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 - mortality COVID-19 - virology error‐contaminated data Fatalities Humans incubation time Infectious Disease Incubation Period Meta-analysis Reproduction Respiratory diseases SARS-CoV-2 - physiology Sensitivity analysis Severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Viral diseases Virology |
| title | Estimation of the basic reproduction number, average incubation time, asymptomatic infection rate, and case fatality rate for COVID‐19: Meta‐analysis and sensitivity analysis |
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