Level of underreporting including underdiagnosis before the first peak of COVID-19 in various countries: Preliminary retrospective results based on wavelets and deterministic modeling

COVID-19 Cases, Demographics, Daily Cases, Growth Rates, and Estimated Underreporting up to March 9, 2020 Country by No. of Confirmed Cases Total COVID-19 Cases Total Deaths Population Density (2020), km–2 Urban Population, (2020), % Date Range of Daily New Cases up to the First Peak Range of Daily New Cases up to the First Peak Population Aged 0–14 y (2018), % Population Aged 15–65 y (2018), % Population Aged ≥65 y (2018), % Model-Based Underreported & Underdiagnosed up to March 9, 2020 No. of People Reported to the No. Infected China 80,761 3,136 153 61 Jan 22–Feb 4 259–3,884 17.9 71.2 10.9 12.03–89.2 million 1 in 149 to 1 in 1,104 Italy 10,149 631 206 69 Feb 22–Mar 9 58–1,797 13.3 64.0 22.7 30,223 1 in 4 reported Iran 8,042 291 52 76 Feb 21–Mar 6 13–1,234 24.5 69.3 6.2 266,213 1 in 34 reported South Korea 7,513 58 527 82 Feb 23–Mar 3 27–851 13.0 72.6 14.4 18,809 1 in 4 reported France 1,784 33 119 82 Feb 27–Mar 7 20–296 18.0 62.0 20.0 7,931 1 in 5 reported Spain 1,690 35 94 80 Feb 27–Mar 9 12–557 14.7 66.0 19.3 87,405 1 in 53 reported Germany 1,458 2 240 76 Feb 27–Mar 5 22–283 13.6 65.0 21.4 2,277 1 in 3 reported United States 874 28 36 83 Mar 2–Mar 12 25–1,652 18.7 65.5 15.8 1.21 million (insufficient data) 1 in 406 reported (insufficient data) According to Situational Report 49, released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 9, 2020,1 there had been 109,000 cases of COVID-19 and 3,800 related deaths worldwide. [...]we are proposing to use our methods, which we have been developing in recent years, to provide model-based estimates of underreporting for COVID-19 within a few weeks. Data, Methods, and Models We collected COVID-19 and population data for each country from the World Health Organization (WHO),1 Worldometer,2 and World Bank10 sources.