An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that incl...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2020-05, Vol.368 (6491), p.638-642 |
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| creator | Tian, Huaiyu Liu, Yonghong Li, Yidan Wu, Chieh-Hsi Chen, Bin Kraemer, Moritz U G Li, Bingying Cai, Jun Xu, Bo Yang, Qiqi Wang, Ben Yang, Peng Cui, Yujun Song, Yimeng Zheng, Pai Wang, Quanyi Bjornstad, Ottar N Yang, Ruifu Grenfell, Bryan T Pybus, Oliver G Dye, Christopher |
| description | Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50). |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1126/science.abb6105 |
| format | Article |
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We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).</description><identifier>ISSN: 0036-8075</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1095-9203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6105</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32234804</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: The American Association for the Advancement of Science</publisher><subject>Betacoronavirus ; Case reports ; China - epidemiology ; Cities ; Communicable Disease Control ; Coronaviridae ; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections - transmission ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; Disease control ; Disease transmission ; Emergency preparedness ; Emergency response ; Entertainment ; Epidemics ; Epidemiology ; Health promotion ; Human motion ; Humans ; Impact analysis ; Incidence ; Medicine ; Models, Statistical ; Outbreaks ; Pandemics - prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral - transmission ; Public health ; Public Health Practice ; Public transportation ; Regression Analysis ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Shutdowns ; Travel ; Viral diseases ; Viruses</subject><ispartof>Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2020-05, Vol.368 (6491), p.638-642</ispartof><rights>Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works</rights><rights>Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). 2020 The Authors</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c515t-beea0c1a55dee450d90d84568fc852f278684897dfb13c63106d9cf8b060739b3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c515t-beea0c1a55dee450d90d84568fc852f278684897dfb13c63106d9cf8b060739b3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-1920-5829 ; 0000-0001-8838-7147 ; 0000-0001-7758-1032 ; 0000-0001-9495-1226 ; 0000-0002-1158-3753 ; 0000-0002-2957-1793 ; 0000-0003-4686-646X ; 0000-0001-9386-725X ; 0000-0003-3496-2876 ; 0000-0002-5030-0963 ; 0000-0002-8797-2667 ; 0000-0001-9558-1220</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,2871,2872,27901,27902</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32234804$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Tian, Huaiyu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Yonghong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Yidan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wu, Chieh-Hsi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chen, Bin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kraemer, Moritz U G</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Bingying</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cai, Jun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Bo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Qiqi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Ben</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Peng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cui, Yujun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Song, Yimeng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zheng, Pai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Quanyi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bjornstad, Ottar N</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Ruifu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Grenfell, Bryan T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pybus, Oliver G</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dye, Christopher</creatorcontrib><title>An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China</title><title>Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science)</title><addtitle>Science</addtitle><description>Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).</description><subject>Betacoronavirus</subject><subject>Case reports</subject><subject>China - epidemiology</subject><subject>Cities</subject><subject>Communicable Disease Control</subject><subject>Coronaviridae</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - transmission</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>Disease control</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Emergency preparedness</subject><subject>Emergency response</subject><subject>Entertainment</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Health promotion</subject><subject>Human motion</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Impact 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investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China</title><author>Tian, Huaiyu ; Liu, Yonghong ; Li, Yidan ; Wu, Chieh-Hsi ; Chen, Bin ; Kraemer, Moritz U G ; Li, Bingying ; Cai, Jun ; Xu, Bo ; Yang, Qiqi ; Wang, Ben ; Yang, Peng ; Cui, Yujun ; Song, Yimeng ; Zheng, Pai ; Wang, Quanyi ; Bjornstad, Ottar N ; Yang, Ruifu ; Grenfell, Bryan T ; Pybus, Oliver G ; Dye, Christopher</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c515t-beea0c1a55dee450d90d84568fc852f278684897dfb13c63106d9cf8b060739b3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Betacoronavirus</topic><topic>Case reports</topic><topic>China - epidemiology</topic><topic>Cities</topic><topic>Communicable Disease Control</topic><topic>Coronaviridae</topic><topic>Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology</topic><topic>Coronavirus Infections - prevention & 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| subjects | Betacoronavirus Case reports China - epidemiology Cities Communicable Disease Control Coronaviridae Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control Coronavirus Infections - transmission Coronaviruses COVID-19 Disease control Disease transmission Emergency preparedness Emergency response Entertainment Epidemics Epidemiology Health promotion Human motion Humans Impact analysis Incidence Medicine Models, Statistical Outbreaks Pandemics - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - transmission Public health Public Health Practice Public transportation Regression Analysis SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Shutdowns Travel Viral diseases Viruses |
| title | An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China |
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