Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China
The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China was characterized by a distinctive subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting with an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show that this...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2020-05, Vol.368 (6492), p.742-746 |
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| creator | Maier, Benjamin F Brockmann, Dirk |
| description | The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China was characterized by a distinctive subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting with an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious model that captures both quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals, as well as population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral changes, and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent infectious diseases. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1126/science.abb4557 |
| format | Article |
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We show that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious model that captures both quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals, as well as population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral changes, and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent infectious diseases.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0036-8075</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1095-9203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1126/science.abb4557</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32269067</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: The American Association for the Advancement of Science</publisher><subject>Basic Reproduction Number ; Behavior ; Betacoronavirus ; China - epidemiology ; Communicable Disease Control ; Contact Tracing ; Containment ; Coronaviridae ; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections - transmission ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; Depletion ; Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control ; Disease Susceptibility ; Epidemics ; Epidemiology ; Humans ; Infectious diseases ; Medicine ; Models, Statistical ; Outbreaks ; Pandemics ; Pandemics - prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral - transmission ; Policies ; Quarantine ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Viral diseases ; Viruses</subject><ispartof>Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2020-05, Vol.368 (6492), p.742-746</ispartof><rights>Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works</rights><rights>Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 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| subjects | Basic Reproduction Number Behavior Betacoronavirus China - epidemiology Communicable Disease Control Contact Tracing Containment Coronaviridae Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control Coronavirus Infections - transmission Coronaviruses COVID-19 Depletion Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control Disease Susceptibility Epidemics Epidemiology Humans Infectious diseases Medicine Models, Statistical Outbreaks Pandemics Pandemics - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - transmission Policies Quarantine SARS-CoV-2 Viral diseases Viruses |
| title | Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China |
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