Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020

Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Euro surveillance : bulletin européen sur les maladies transmissibles 2020-03, Vol.25 (12)
Hauptverfasser:	Guzzetta, Giorgio, Poletti, Piero, Ajelli, Marco, Trentini, Filippo, Marziano, Valentina, Cereda, Danilo, Tirani, Marcello, Diurno, Giulio, Bodina, Annalisa, Barone, Antonio, Crottogini, Lucia, Gramegna, Maria, Melegaro, Alessia, Merler, Stefano
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Betacoronavirus Coronavirus Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - transmission COVID-19 Disease Notification - statistics & numerical data Disease Outbreaks Humans Italy - epidemiology Pandemics Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Pneumonia, Viral - transmission Rapid Communication SARS-CoV-2
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Zusammenfassung:	Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
ISSN:	1560-7917 1025-496X 1560-7917
DOI:	10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293