Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China
As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires p...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Nature medicine 2020-04, Vol.26 (4), p.506-510 |
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| description | As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator
1
of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).
An estimation of the clinical severity of COVID-19, based on the data available so far, can help to inform the public health response during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1038/s41591-020-0822-7 |
| format | Article |
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1
of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).
An estimation of the clinical severity of COVID-19, based on the data available so far, can help to inform the public health response during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1078-8956</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1546-170X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0822-7</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32284616</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New York: Nature Publishing Group US</publisher><subject>631/114 ; 631/326 ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Asymptomatic Diseases ; Betacoronavirus ; Biomedical and Life Sciences ; Biomedicine ; Cancer Research ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; China ; China - epidemiology ; Clinical Laboratory Techniques ; Control ; Coronavirus Infections - complications ; Coronavirus Infections - diagnosis ; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 Testing ; Demographic aspects ; Diagnosis ; Disease transmission ; Epidemics ; Estimation ; Fatalities ; Female ; Forecasts and trends ; Health aspects ; Health risks ; Humans ; Infant ; Infectious Diseases ; Letter ; Male ; Metabolic Diseases ; Middle Aged ; Models, Statistical ; Molecular Medicine ; Mortality ; Neurosciences ; Pandemics ; Patient outcomes ; Pneumonia, Viral - complications ; Pneumonia, Viral - diagnosis ; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology ; Prognosis ; Public health ; Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Risk ; Risk Factors ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Severity of Illness Index ; Statistics ; Viral diseases</subject><ispartof>Nature medicine, 2020-04, Vol.26 (4), p.506-510</ispartof><rights>The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc. 2020</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2020 Nature Publishing Group</rights><rights>The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc. 2020.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c768t-b003a8b602288e8909378ed33155f4d171fe1d33ceccdd97dc2d2d70f61aba253</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c768t-b003a8b602288e8909378ed33155f4d171fe1d33ceccdd97dc2d2d70f61aba253</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-3155-5987 ; 0000-0002-6297-7154</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,27924,27925</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32284616$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Wu, Joseph T.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Leung, Kathy</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bushman, Mary</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kishore, Nishant</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Niehus, Rene</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>de Salazar, Pablo M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cowling, Benjamin J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lipsitch, Marc</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Leung, Gabriel M.</creatorcontrib><title>Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China</title><title>Nature medicine</title><addtitle>Nat Med</addtitle><addtitle>Nat Med</addtitle><description>As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator
1
of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).
An estimation of the clinical severity of COVID-19, based on the data available so far, can help to inform the public health response during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.</description><subject>631/114</subject><subject>631/326</subject><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Age Factors</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Asymptomatic Diseases</subject><subject>Betacoronavirus</subject><subject>Biomedical and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Biomedicine</subject><subject>Cancer Research</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>China</subject><subject>China - epidemiology</subject><subject>Clinical Laboratory Techniques</subject><subject>Control</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - complications</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - diagnosis</subject><subject>Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>Coronaviruses</subject><subject>COVID-19</subject><subject>COVID-19 Testing</subject><subject>Demographic aspects</subject><subject>Diagnosis</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Estimation</subject><subject>Fatalities</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Forecasts and trends</subject><subject>Health aspects</subject><subject>Health risks</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infant</subject><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subject>Letter</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Metabolic Diseases</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Models, Statistical</subject><subject>Molecular Medicine</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Neurosciences</subject><subject>Pandemics</subject><subject>Patient outcomes</subject><subject>Pneumonia, Viral - 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Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Nature medicine</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Wu, Joseph T.</au><au>Leung, Kathy</au><au>Bushman, Mary</au><au>Kishore, Nishant</au><au>Niehus, Rene</au><au>de Salazar, Pablo M.</au><au>Cowling, Benjamin J.</au><au>Lipsitch, Marc</au><au>Leung, Gabriel M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China</atitle><jtitle>Nature medicine</jtitle><stitle>Nat Med</stitle><addtitle>Nat Med</addtitle><date>2020-04-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>26</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>506</spage><epage>510</epage><pages>506-510</pages><issn>1078-8956</issn><eissn>1546-170X</eissn><abstract>As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator
1
of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).
An estimation of the clinical severity of COVID-19, based on the data available so far, can help to inform the public health response during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>Nature Publishing Group US</pub><pmid>32284616</pmid><doi>10.1038/s41591-020-0822-7</doi><tpages>5</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3155-5987</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6297-7154</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | 631/114 631/326 Adolescent Adult Age Factors Aged Aged, 80 and over Asymptomatic Diseases Betacoronavirus Biomedical and Life Sciences Biomedicine Cancer Research Child Child, Preschool China China - epidemiology Clinical Laboratory Techniques Control Coronavirus Infections - complications Coronavirus Infections - diagnosis Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 Testing Demographic aspects Diagnosis Disease transmission Epidemics Estimation Fatalities Female Forecasts and trends Health aspects Health risks Humans Infant Infectious Diseases Letter Male Metabolic Diseases Middle Aged Models, Statistical Molecular Medicine Mortality Neurosciences Pandemics Patient outcomes Pneumonia, Viral - complications Pneumonia, Viral - diagnosis Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Prognosis Public health Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction Risk Risk Factors SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Severity of Illness Index Statistics Viral diseases |
| title | Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China |
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