Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available
A strain-specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in the early phases of a potential H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. It could be months and at the current production rate may not provide timely protection to the population. Intervention strategies that control the spread of infection will be nece...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Computational and mathematical organization theory 2008-09, Vol.14 (3), p.209-221 |
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| creator | Mniszewski, S. M. Del Valle, S. Y. Stroud, P. D. Riese, J. M. Sydoriak, S. J. |
| description | A strain-specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in the early phases of a potential H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. It could be months and at the current production rate may not provide timely protection to the population. Intervention strategies that control the spread of infection will be necessary in this situation, such as the use of the US stockpile of antiviral medication coupled with a 6-month school closure. The agent-based simulation model,
EpiSimS
, was used to assess the impact of this intervention strategy followed by three different vaccine approaches: (1) 2-dose, 80% effective, (2) 1-dose, 30% effective, and (3) 1 dose, 80% effective. Simulations show that the combination of antivirals, school closures, and a strain-specific vaccine can reduce morbidity and mortality while in effect. A significant second infection wave can occur with current vaccine technology once school closures are relaxed, though an ideal vaccine is able to contain it. In our simulations, worker absenteeism increases in all cases mostly attributed to household adults staying home with children due to the school closures. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10588-008-9027-1 |
| format | Article |
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EpiSimS
, was used to assess the impact of this intervention strategy followed by three different vaccine approaches: (1) 2-dose, 80% effective, (2) 1-dose, 30% effective, and (3) 1 dose, 80% effective. Simulations show that the combination of antivirals, school closures, and a strain-specific vaccine can reduce morbidity and mortality while in effect. A significant second infection wave can occur with current vaccine technology once school closures are relaxed, though an ideal vaccine is able to contain it. In our simulations, worker absenteeism increases in all cases mostly attributed to household adults staying home with children due to the school closures.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1381-298X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1572-9346</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10588-008-9027-1</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32214872</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Boston: Springer US</publisher><subject>Absenteeism ; Antiviral drugs ; Artificial Intelligence ; Avian flu ; Business and Management ; Disease ; Emergency preparedness ; Epidemics ; Households ; Immunization ; Infections ; Intervention ; Management ; Medical supplies ; Methodology of the Social Sciences ; Operations Research/Decision Theory ; Pandemics ; Pharmaceuticals ; Population ; School closures ; Simulation ; Social networks ; Sociology ; Studies ; United States ; Vaccines</subject><ispartof>Computational and mathematical organization theory, 2008-09, Vol.14 (3), p.209-221</ispartof><rights>Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2008</rights><rights>Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2008.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4791-bde9f9f29e3d24722de7de21510b47ffbe4dfeb9775f5eb09a7239ccb38241f3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4791-bde9f9f29e3d24722de7de21510b47ffbe4dfeb9775f5eb09a7239ccb38241f3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10588-008-9027-1$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10588-008-9027-1$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,27924,27925,41488,42557,51319</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32214872$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Mniszewski, S. M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Del Valle, S. Y.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stroud, P. D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Riese, J. M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sydoriak, S. J.</creatorcontrib><title>Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available</title><title>Computational and mathematical organization theory</title><addtitle>Comput Math Organiz Theor</addtitle><addtitle>Comput Math Organ Theory</addtitle><description>A strain-specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in the early phases of a potential H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. It could be months and at the current production rate may not provide timely protection to the population. Intervention strategies that control the spread of infection will be necessary in this situation, such as the use of the US stockpile of antiviral medication coupled with a 6-month school closure. The agent-based simulation model,
EpiSimS
, was used to assess the impact of this intervention strategy followed by three different vaccine approaches: (1) 2-dose, 80% effective, (2) 1-dose, 30% effective, and (3) 1 dose, 80% effective. Simulations show that the combination of antivirals, school closures, and a strain-specific vaccine can reduce morbidity and mortality while in effect. A significant second infection wave can occur with current vaccine technology once school closures are relaxed, though an ideal vaccine is able to contain it. In our simulations, worker absenteeism increases in all cases mostly attributed to household adults staying home with children due to the school closures.</description><subject>Absenteeism</subject><subject>Antiviral drugs</subject><subject>Artificial Intelligence</subject><subject>Avian flu</subject><subject>Business and Management</subject><subject>Disease</subject><subject>Emergency preparedness</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Households</subject><subject>Immunization</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Intervention</subject><subject>Management</subject><subject>Medical supplies</subject><subject>Methodology of the Social Sciences</subject><subject>Operations Research/Decision Theory</subject><subject>Pandemics</subject><subject>Pharmaceuticals</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>School closures</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Social networks</subject><subject>Sociology</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>United States</subject><subject>Vaccines</subject><issn>1381-298X</issn><issn>1572-9346</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2008</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkk1rFTEUhgdRbK3-ADcyuBBBRk8-ZpK4EKS0KhR00YW7kMmc3KZkkmty50J3bv2b_hJzubV-gHYREjjPeU44vE3zmMBLAiBeFQK9lB2A7BRQ0ZE7zSHpBe0U48Pd-maSdFTJzwfNg1IuAUAJBvebA0Yp4VLQwyZ9MnHC2du2-HkJZuNTbJNrTdz4rc8mlO9fv72op9iLlEJrQypLxvK6HZcrH1ftxs_YLpUObdlk42NX1mi9q8atsdZHbH1pzdb4YMaAD5t7rkrx0fV91Jyfnpwfv-_OPr77cPz2rLNcKNKNEyqnHFXIJsoFpROKCSnpCYxcODcinxyOSoje9TiCMoIyZe3IJOXEsaPmzV67XsYZJ4ux_i3odfazyVc6Ga__rER_oVdpqwVIIbmsgmfXgpy-LFg2evbFYggmYlqKZkxRSUBU8Pl_Qcokp9APPb_VSUGB4v1wq5PIYRh6kKAq-vQv9DItOdbVVh0ZekmHHUT2kM2plIzuZhEE9C5Jep8kXZOkd0nSpPY8-X2DNx0_o1MBugdKLcUV5l-T_239ATIB16g</recordid><startdate>20080901</startdate><enddate>20080901</enddate><creator>Mniszewski, S. 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M.</au><au>Del Valle, S. Y.</au><au>Stroud, P. D.</au><au>Riese, J. M.</au><au>Sydoriak, S. J.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available</atitle><jtitle>Computational and mathematical organization theory</jtitle><stitle>Comput Math Organiz Theor</stitle><addtitle>Comput Math Organ Theory</addtitle><date>2008-09-01</date><risdate>2008</risdate><volume>14</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>209</spage><epage>221</epage><pages>209-221</pages><issn>1381-298X</issn><eissn>1572-9346</eissn><abstract>A strain-specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in the early phases of a potential H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. It could be months and at the current production rate may not provide timely protection to the population. Intervention strategies that control the spread of infection will be necessary in this situation, such as the use of the US stockpile of antiviral medication coupled with a 6-month school closure. The agent-based simulation model,
EpiSimS
, was used to assess the impact of this intervention strategy followed by three different vaccine approaches: (1) 2-dose, 80% effective, (2) 1-dose, 30% effective, and (3) 1 dose, 80% effective. Simulations show that the combination of antivirals, school closures, and a strain-specific vaccine can reduce morbidity and mortality while in effect. A significant second infection wave can occur with current vaccine technology once school closures are relaxed, though an ideal vaccine is able to contain it. In our simulations, worker absenteeism increases in all cases mostly attributed to household adults staying home with children due to the school closures.</abstract><cop>Boston</cop><pub>Springer US</pub><pmid>32214872</pmid><doi>10.1007/s10588-008-9027-1</doi><tpages>13</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Computational and mathematical organization theory, 2008-09, Vol.14 (3), p.209-221 |
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| language | eng |
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| source | SpringerNature Journals |
| subjects | Absenteeism Antiviral drugs Artificial Intelligence Avian flu Business and Management Disease Emergency preparedness Epidemics Households Immunization Infections Intervention Management Medical supplies Methodology of the Social Sciences Operations Research/Decision Theory Pandemics Pharmaceuticals Population School closures Simulation Social networks Sociology Studies United States Vaccines |
| title | Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available |
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