Elicitation of prior probability distributions for a proposed Bayesian randomized clinical trial of whole blood for trauma resuscitation
BACKGROUND Whole blood trauma resuscitation is conceptually appealing and increasingly used but lacks evidence. A randomized controlled trial is needed but challenging to design. A Bayesian approach might be more efficient and more interpretable than a conventional frequentist design. We report the...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Transfusion (Philadelphia, Pa.) Pa.), 2020-03, Vol.60 (3), p.498-506 |
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creator | Jansen, Jan O. Wang, Henry Holcomb, John B. Harvin, John A. Richman, Joshua Avritscher, Elenir Stephens, Shannon W. Truong, Van Thi Thanh Marques, Marisa B. DeSantis, Stacia M. Yamal, Jose‐Miguel Pedroza, Claudia |
description | BACKGROUND
Whole blood trauma resuscitation is conceptually appealing and increasingly used but lacks evidence. A randomized controlled trial is needed but challenging to design. A Bayesian approach might be more efficient and more interpretable than a conventional frequentist design. We report the results on an elicitation meeting to create prior probability distributions to help develop such a trial.
METHODS
In‐person expert elicitation meeting, based on Sheffield Elicitation Framework methodology. We used an interactive graphical tool to elicit the quantities of interest (24‐hour mortality and certainty required). Two rounds were conducted, with an intervening discussion of deidentified responses. Individual responses were aggregated into probability distributions.
RESULTS
Fifteen experts participated. The pooled belief was that the median 24‐hour mortality of trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock treated with component therapy (the current standard of care) was 19% (95% credible interval [CrI], 6%‐45%), and the median 24‐hour mortality of those treated with whole blood, 16% (95% CrI, 5%‐39%). The pooled prior distribution for the relative risk had a median of 0.84 (95% CrI, 0.26‐3.1), indicating that the expert group had a 64% prior belief that whole blood decreases 24‐hour mortality compared to component therapy.
CONCLUSIONS
Experts had moderately strong beliefs that whole blood reduces the 24‐hour mortality of trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock. These data will assist with the design and planning of a Bayesian trial of whole blood resuscitation, which will help to answer a key question in contemporary transfusion practice. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1111/trf.15675 |
format | Article |
fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_pubme</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_7079110</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2344230351</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4435-421a861f88599b4c58524a5d4c08ccc4a13c860c3d6ea327a1f6368db7dbf4f43</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp1kU1rFTEUhoMo9lpd-Ack4EYX0-ZMkvnYCLW0KhQEqetwJh82JTO5JjOW6y_wZ5vpbYsKZpFAzpMnJ3kJeQnsCMo4npM7Atm08hHZgORtVfe9fEw2jAmoAHh9QJ7lfM0Yq3sGT8kBh75lbd9syK-z4LWfcfZxotHRbfIxlTkOOPjg5x01Ps_JD8tKZOpKFdf6NmZr6Hvc2exxogknE0f_s-zp4CevMdByrMxFenMVg6VDiNHcCuaEy4g02bzk-8ufkycOQ7Yv7tZD8vX87PL0Y3Xx-cOn05OLSgvBZSVqwK4B13Wy7wehZSdrgdIIzTqttUDgumuY5qaxyOsWwTW86czQmsEJJ_ghebf3bpdhtEbbqXQTVHn3iGmnInr1d2XyV-pb_KHWDwNgRfDmTpDi98XmWY0-axsCTjYuWdVciJozLqGgr_9Br-OSpvK8QrUlDMG6Vfh2T-kUc07WPTQDTK35qpKvus23sK_-7P6BvA-0AMd74MYHu_u_SV1-Od8rfwPgLLNA</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Open Access Repository</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2370294080</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Elicitation of prior probability distributions for a proposed Bayesian randomized clinical trial of whole blood for trauma resuscitation</title><source>Wiley Journals</source><creator>Jansen, Jan O. ; Wang, Henry ; Holcomb, John B. ; Harvin, John A. ; Richman, Joshua ; Avritscher, Elenir ; Stephens, Shannon W. ; Truong, Van Thi Thanh ; Marques, Marisa B. ; DeSantis, Stacia M. ; Yamal, Jose‐Miguel ; Pedroza, Claudia</creator><creatorcontrib>Jansen, Jan O. ; Wang, Henry ; Holcomb, John B. ; Harvin, John A. ; Richman, Joshua ; Avritscher, Elenir ; Stephens, Shannon W. ; Truong, Van Thi Thanh ; Marques, Marisa B. ; DeSantis, Stacia M. ; Yamal, Jose‐Miguel ; Pedroza, Claudia</creatorcontrib><description>BACKGROUND
Whole blood trauma resuscitation is conceptually appealing and increasingly used but lacks evidence. A randomized controlled trial is needed but challenging to design. A Bayesian approach might be more efficient and more interpretable than a conventional frequentist design. We report the results on an elicitation meeting to create prior probability distributions to help develop such a trial.
METHODS
In‐person expert elicitation meeting, based on Sheffield Elicitation Framework methodology. We used an interactive graphical tool to elicit the quantities of interest (24‐hour mortality and certainty required). Two rounds were conducted, with an intervening discussion of deidentified responses. Individual responses were aggregated into probability distributions.
RESULTS
Fifteen experts participated. The pooled belief was that the median 24‐hour mortality of trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock treated with component therapy (the current standard of care) was 19% (95% credible interval [CrI], 6%‐45%), and the median 24‐hour mortality of those treated with whole blood, 16% (95% CrI, 5%‐39%). The pooled prior distribution for the relative risk had a median of 0.84 (95% CrI, 0.26‐3.1), indicating that the expert group had a 64% prior belief that whole blood decreases 24‐hour mortality compared to component therapy.
CONCLUSIONS
Experts had moderately strong beliefs that whole blood reduces the 24‐hour mortality of trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock. These data will assist with the design and planning of a Bayesian trial of whole blood resuscitation, which will help to answer a key question in contemporary transfusion practice.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0041-1132</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1537-2995</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/trf.15675</identifier><identifier>PMID: 31970796</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Hoboken, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>Bayesian analysis ; Blood ; Conditional probability ; Design ; Hemorrhage ; Hemorrhagic shock ; Mortality ; Resuscitation ; Therapy ; Transfusion ; Transfusion Practice ; Trauma</subject><ispartof>Transfusion (Philadelphia, Pa.), 2020-03, Vol.60 (3), p.498-506</ispartof><rights>2020 The Authors. published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of AABB.</rights><rights>2020 The Authors. Transfusion published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of AABB.</rights><rights>2020 AABB</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4435-421a861f88599b4c58524a5d4c08ccc4a13c860c3d6ea327a1f6368db7dbf4f43</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4435-421a861f88599b4c58524a5d4c08ccc4a13c860c3d6ea327a1f6368db7dbf4f43</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-8863-4398 ; 0000-0002-4738-0093</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Ftrf.15675$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Ftrf.15675$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,1417,27924,27925,45574,45575</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31970796$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Jansen, Jan O.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Henry</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Holcomb, John B.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Harvin, John A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Richman, Joshua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Avritscher, Elenir</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stephens, Shannon W.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Truong, Van Thi Thanh</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Marques, Marisa B.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>DeSantis, Stacia M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yamal, Jose‐Miguel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pedroza, Claudia</creatorcontrib><title>Elicitation of prior probability distributions for a proposed Bayesian randomized clinical trial of whole blood for trauma resuscitation</title><title>Transfusion (Philadelphia, Pa.)</title><addtitle>Transfusion</addtitle><description>BACKGROUND
Whole blood trauma resuscitation is conceptually appealing and increasingly used but lacks evidence. A randomized controlled trial is needed but challenging to design. A Bayesian approach might be more efficient and more interpretable than a conventional frequentist design. We report the results on an elicitation meeting to create prior probability distributions to help develop such a trial.
METHODS
In‐person expert elicitation meeting, based on Sheffield Elicitation Framework methodology. We used an interactive graphical tool to elicit the quantities of interest (24‐hour mortality and certainty required). Two rounds were conducted, with an intervening discussion of deidentified responses. Individual responses were aggregated into probability distributions.
RESULTS
Fifteen experts participated. The pooled belief was that the median 24‐hour mortality of trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock treated with component therapy (the current standard of care) was 19% (95% credible interval [CrI], 6%‐45%), and the median 24‐hour mortality of those treated with whole blood, 16% (95% CrI, 5%‐39%). The pooled prior distribution for the relative risk had a median of 0.84 (95% CrI, 0.26‐3.1), indicating that the expert group had a 64% prior belief that whole blood decreases 24‐hour mortality compared to component therapy.
CONCLUSIONS
Experts had moderately strong beliefs that whole blood reduces the 24‐hour mortality of trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock. These data will assist with the design and planning of a Bayesian trial of whole blood resuscitation, which will help to answer a key question in contemporary transfusion practice.</description><subject>Bayesian analysis</subject><subject>Blood</subject><subject>Conditional probability</subject><subject>Design</subject><subject>Hemorrhage</subject><subject>Hemorrhagic shock</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Resuscitation</subject><subject>Therapy</subject><subject>Transfusion</subject><subject>Transfusion Practice</subject><subject>Trauma</subject><issn>0041-1132</issn><issn>1537-2995</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>24P</sourceid><sourceid>WIN</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kU1rFTEUhoMo9lpd-Ack4EYX0-ZMkvnYCLW0KhQEqetwJh82JTO5JjOW6y_wZ5vpbYsKZpFAzpMnJ3kJeQnsCMo4npM7Atm08hHZgORtVfe9fEw2jAmoAHh9QJ7lfM0Yq3sGT8kBh75lbd9syK-z4LWfcfZxotHRbfIxlTkOOPjg5x01Ps_JD8tKZOpKFdf6NmZr6Hvc2exxogknE0f_s-zp4CevMdByrMxFenMVg6VDiNHcCuaEy4g02bzk-8ufkycOQ7Yv7tZD8vX87PL0Y3Xx-cOn05OLSgvBZSVqwK4B13Wy7wehZSdrgdIIzTqttUDgumuY5qaxyOsWwTW86czQmsEJJ_ghebf3bpdhtEbbqXQTVHn3iGmnInr1d2XyV-pb_KHWDwNgRfDmTpDi98XmWY0-axsCTjYuWdVciJozLqGgr_9Br-OSpvK8QrUlDMG6Vfh2T-kUc07WPTQDTK35qpKvus23sK_-7P6BvA-0AMd74MYHu_u_SV1-Od8rfwPgLLNA</recordid><startdate>202003</startdate><enddate>202003</enddate><creator>Jansen, Jan O.</creator><creator>Wang, Henry</creator><creator>Holcomb, John B.</creator><creator>Harvin, John A.</creator><creator>Richman, Joshua</creator><creator>Avritscher, Elenir</creator><creator>Stephens, Shannon W.</creator><creator>Truong, Van Thi Thanh</creator><creator>Marques, Marisa B.</creator><creator>DeSantis, Stacia M.</creator><creator>Yamal, Jose‐Miguel</creator><creator>Pedroza, Claudia</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><scope>24P</scope><scope>WIN</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QO</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8863-4398</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4738-0093</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202003</creationdate><title>Elicitation of prior probability distributions for a proposed Bayesian randomized clinical trial of whole blood for trauma resuscitation</title><author>Jansen, Jan O. ; Wang, Henry ; Holcomb, John B. ; Harvin, John A. ; Richman, Joshua ; Avritscher, Elenir ; Stephens, Shannon W. ; Truong, Van Thi Thanh ; Marques, Marisa B. ; DeSantis, Stacia M. ; Yamal, Jose‐Miguel ; Pedroza, Claudia</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c4435-421a861f88599b4c58524a5d4c08ccc4a13c860c3d6ea327a1f6368db7dbf4f43</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Bayesian analysis</topic><topic>Blood</topic><topic>Conditional probability</topic><topic>Design</topic><topic>Hemorrhage</topic><topic>Hemorrhagic shock</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Resuscitation</topic><topic>Therapy</topic><topic>Transfusion</topic><topic>Transfusion Practice</topic><topic>Trauma</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Jansen, Jan O.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Henry</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Holcomb, John B.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Harvin, John A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Richman, Joshua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Avritscher, Elenir</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stephens, Shannon W.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Truong, Van Thi Thanh</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Marques, Marisa B.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>DeSantis, Stacia M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yamal, Jose‐Miguel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pedroza, Claudia</creatorcontrib><collection>Wiley-Blackwell Open Access Titles</collection><collection>Wiley Free Content</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Biotechnology Research Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Transfusion (Philadelphia, Pa.)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Jansen, Jan O.</au><au>Wang, Henry</au><au>Holcomb, John B.</au><au>Harvin, John A.</au><au>Richman, Joshua</au><au>Avritscher, Elenir</au><au>Stephens, Shannon W.</au><au>Truong, Van Thi Thanh</au><au>Marques, Marisa B.</au><au>DeSantis, Stacia M.</au><au>Yamal, Jose‐Miguel</au><au>Pedroza, Claudia</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Elicitation of prior probability distributions for a proposed Bayesian randomized clinical trial of whole blood for trauma resuscitation</atitle><jtitle>Transfusion (Philadelphia, Pa.)</jtitle><addtitle>Transfusion</addtitle><date>2020-03</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>60</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>498</spage><epage>506</epage><pages>498-506</pages><issn>0041-1132</issn><eissn>1537-2995</eissn><abstract>BACKGROUND
Whole blood trauma resuscitation is conceptually appealing and increasingly used but lacks evidence. A randomized controlled trial is needed but challenging to design. A Bayesian approach might be more efficient and more interpretable than a conventional frequentist design. We report the results on an elicitation meeting to create prior probability distributions to help develop such a trial.
METHODS
In‐person expert elicitation meeting, based on Sheffield Elicitation Framework methodology. We used an interactive graphical tool to elicit the quantities of interest (24‐hour mortality and certainty required). Two rounds were conducted, with an intervening discussion of deidentified responses. Individual responses were aggregated into probability distributions.
RESULTS
Fifteen experts participated. The pooled belief was that the median 24‐hour mortality of trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock treated with component therapy (the current standard of care) was 19% (95% credible interval [CrI], 6%‐45%), and the median 24‐hour mortality of those treated with whole blood, 16% (95% CrI, 5%‐39%). The pooled prior distribution for the relative risk had a median of 0.84 (95% CrI, 0.26‐3.1), indicating that the expert group had a 64% prior belief that whole blood decreases 24‐hour mortality compared to component therapy.
CONCLUSIONS
Experts had moderately strong beliefs that whole blood reduces the 24‐hour mortality of trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock. These data will assist with the design and planning of a Bayesian trial of whole blood resuscitation, which will help to answer a key question in contemporary transfusion practice.</abstract><cop>Hoboken, USA</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</pub><pmid>31970796</pmid><doi>10.1111/trf.15675</doi><tpages>9</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8863-4398</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4738-0093</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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source | Wiley Journals |
subjects | Bayesian analysis Blood Conditional probability Design Hemorrhage Hemorrhagic shock Mortality Resuscitation Therapy Transfusion Transfusion Practice Trauma |
title | Elicitation of prior probability distributions for a proposed Bayesian randomized clinical trial of whole blood for trauma resuscitation |
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