Local demographic changes and US presidential voting, 2012 to 2016
Immigration and demographic change have become highly salient in American politics, partly because of the 2016 campaign of Donald Trump. Previous research indicates that local influxes of immigrants or unfamiliar ethnic groups can generate threatened responses, but has either focused on nonelectoral...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2019-12, Vol.116 (50), p.25023-25028 |
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| container_title | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS |
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| creator | Hill, Seth J. Hopkins, Daniel J. Huber, Gregory A. |
| description | Immigration and demographic change have become highly salient in American politics, partly because of the 2016 campaign of Donald Trump. Previous research indicates that local influxes of immigrants or unfamiliar ethnic groups can generate threatened responses, but has either focused on nonelectoral outcomes or analyzed elections in large geographic units, such as counties. Here, we examine whether demographic changes at low levels of aggregation were associated with vote shifts toward an anti-immigration presidential candidate between 2012 and 2016. To do so, we compile a precinct-level dataset of election results and demographic measures for almost 32,000 precincts in the states of Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington. We employ regression analyses varying model specifications and measures of demographic change. Our estimates uncover little evidence that influxes of Hispanics or noncitizen immigrants benefited Trump relative to past Republicans, instead consistently showing that such changes were associated with shifts to Trump’s opponent. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1073/pnas.1909202116 |
| format | Article |
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Our estimates uncover little evidence that influxes of Hispanics or noncitizen immigrants benefited Trump relative to past Republicans, instead consistently showing that such changes were associated with shifts to Trump’s opponent.</description><subject>Attitude</subject><subject>Cultural Diversity</subject><subject>Demographics</subject><subject>Demography</subject><subject>Elections</subject><subject>Emigration and Immigration</subject><subject>Hispanic or Latino</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Immigrants</subject><subject>Immigration</subject><subject>Minority & ethnic groups</subject><subject>Noncitizens</subject><subject>Political campaigns</subject><subject>Politics</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Regression models</subject><subject>Social Sciences</subject><subject>United States - epidemiology</subject><subject>United States - ethnology</subject><issn>0027-8424</issn><issn>1091-6490</issn><issn>1091-6490</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2019</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNpdkc1r3DAQxUVoaLZpzzm1GHLpIU5mRrIsXwpNaJvCQg9tzmJsa3e9eC1X8gby31fLppsPGJjD_ObxHk-IM4RLhFJejQPHS6ygIiBEfSRmCBXmWlXwRswAqMyNInUi3sW4BoCqMPBWnEgslTIlzMT13DfcZ63b-GXgcdU1WbPiYelixkOb3f3OxuBi17ph6hJ376duWF5kBEjZ5HdbvxfHC-6j-_C4T8Xd929_bm7z-a8fP2--zvNGKTnljiq9kAvkunWqrmvNrlBlLQvlnNJFXZEkQwVx2bbMmmtSyNoZKMig0ShPxZe97ritN65tkqXAvR1Dt-HwYD139uVl6FZ26e-trhCJIAl8fhQI_u_Wxcluuti4vufB-W20JFErSlMm9PwVuvbbMKR4iUomjSpwR13tqSb4GINbHMwg2F0_dtePfeonfXx6nuHA_y8kAR_3wDpOPhzupI1OEiD_ASY5k2A</recordid><startdate>20191210</startdate><enddate>20191210</enddate><creator>Hill, Seth J.</creator><creator>Hopkins, Daniel J.</creator><creator>Huber, Gregory A.</creator><general>National Academy of Sciences</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QG</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7QP</scope><scope>7QR</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7T5</scope><scope>7TK</scope><scope>7TM</scope><scope>7TO</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3785-1533</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6804-8148</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9085-6050</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20191210</creationdate><title>Local demographic changes and US presidential voting, 2012 to 2016</title><author>Hill, Seth J. ; 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| subjects | Attitude Cultural Diversity Demographics Demography Elections Emigration and Immigration Hispanic or Latino Humans Immigrants Immigration Minority & ethnic groups Noncitizens Political campaigns Politics Regression analysis Regression models Social Sciences United States - epidemiology United States - ethnology |
| title | Local demographic changes and US presidential voting, 2012 to 2016 |
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