Development and Validation of a Model Consisting of Comorbidity Burden to Calculate Risk of Death Within 6 Months for Patients With Suspected Drug-Induced Liver Injury

Patients with drug-induced liver injury (DILI) frequently have comorbid conditions, but the effects of non-liver comorbidities on outcomes are not well understood. We investigated the association between comorbidity burden and outcomes of patients with DILI, and developed and validated a model to ca...

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Veröffentlicht in:Gastroenterology (New York, N.Y. 1943) N.Y. 1943), 2019-11, Vol.157 (5), p.1245-1252.e3
Hauptverfasser: Ghabril, Marwan, Gu, Jiezhun, Yoder, Lindsay, Corbito, Laura, Ringel, Amit, Beyer, Christian D., Vuppalanchi, Raj, Barnhart, Huiman, Hayashi, Paul H., Chalasani, Naga
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container_end_page 1252.e3
container_issue 5
container_start_page 1245
container_title Gastroenterology (New York, N.Y. 1943)
container_volume 157
creator Ghabril, Marwan
Gu, Jiezhun
Yoder, Lindsay
Corbito, Laura
Ringel, Amit
Beyer, Christian D.
Vuppalanchi, Raj
Barnhart, Huiman
Hayashi, Paul H.
Chalasani, Naga
description Patients with drug-induced liver injury (DILI) frequently have comorbid conditions, but the effects of non-liver comorbidities on outcomes are not well understood. We investigated the association between comorbidity burden and outcomes of patients with DILI, and developed and validated a model to calculate risk of death within 6 months. A multiple logistic regression model identified variables independently associated with death within 6 months of presenting with suspected DILI (6-month mortality) for 306 patients enrolled in the Drug-Induced Liver Injury Network prospective study at Indiana University (discovery cohort). The model was validated using data from 247 patients with suspected DILI enrolled in the same study at the University of North Carolina (validation cohort). Medical comorbidity burden was calculated using the Charlson Comorbidity Index—patients with scores higher than 2 were considered to have significant comorbidities. Six-month mortality was 8.5% in the discovery cohort and 4.5% in the validation cohort. In the discovery cohort, significant comorbidities (odds ratio, 5.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1–13.8), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04–1.17), and serum level of albumin at presentation (odds ratio, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.2–0.76) were independently associated with 6-month mortality. A model based on these 3 variables identified patients who died within 6 months, with c-statistic values of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.86–0.94) in the discovery cohort and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.83–0.99) in the validation cohort. We developed a web-based calculator for use in the clinic to determine risk of death within 6 months for patients with suspected DILI. We developed and validated a model based on comorbidity burden, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and serum level of albumin that predicts 6-month mortality in patients with suspected DILI.
doi_str_mv 10.1053/j.gastro.2019.07.006
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In the discovery cohort, significant comorbidities (odds ratio, 5.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1–13.8), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04–1.17), and serum level of albumin at presentation (odds ratio, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.2–0.76) were independently associated with 6-month mortality. A model based on these 3 variables identified patients who died within 6 months, with c-statistic values of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.86–0.94) in the discovery cohort and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.83–0.99) in the validation cohort. We developed a web-based calculator for use in the clinic to determine risk of death within 6 months for patients with suspected DILI. 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We investigated the association between comorbidity burden and outcomes of patients with DILI, and developed and validated a model to calculate risk of death within 6 months. A multiple logistic regression model identified variables independently associated with death within 6 months of presenting with suspected DILI (6-month mortality) for 306 patients enrolled in the Drug-Induced Liver Injury Network prospective study at Indiana University (discovery cohort). The model was validated using data from 247 patients with suspected DILI enrolled in the same study at the University of North Carolina (validation cohort). Medical comorbidity burden was calculated using the Charlson Comorbidity Index—patients with scores higher than 2 were considered to have significant comorbidities. Six-month mortality was 8.5% in the discovery cohort and 4.5% in the validation cohort. In the discovery cohort, significant comorbidities (odds ratio, 5.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1–13.8), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04–1.17), and serum level of albumin at presentation (odds ratio, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.2–0.76) were independently associated with 6-month mortality. A model based on these 3 variables identified patients who died within 6 months, with c-statistic values of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.86–0.94) in the discovery cohort and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.83–0.99) in the validation cohort. We developed a web-based calculator for use in the clinic to determine risk of death within 6 months for patients with suspected DILI. We developed and validated a model based on comorbidity burden, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and serum level of albumin that predicts 6-month mortality in patients with suspected DILI.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Elsevier Inc</pub><pmid>31302142</pmid><doi>10.1053/j.gastro.2019.07.006</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-8648</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Adult
Aged
Cause of Death
CCI
Chemical and Drug Induced Liver Injury - diagnosis
Chemical and Drug Induced Liver Injury - mortality
Chemical and Drug Induced Liver Injury - therapy
Comorbidity
DILIN Prospective Study
Female
Health Status
Health Status Indicators
Humans
Male
MELD
Middle Aged
Predictive Value of Tests
Prognosis
Prospective Studies
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Time Factors
title Development and Validation of a Model Consisting of Comorbidity Burden to Calculate Risk of Death Within 6 Months for Patients With Suspected Drug-Induced Liver Injury
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