Effects of large-scale oceanic phenomena on non-cholera vibriosis incidence in the United States: implications for climate change
Non-cholera Vibrio (NCV) species are important causes of disease. These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a 'natural experiment' that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Epidemiology and infection 2019-01, Vol.147, p.1-7, Article e243 |
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| description | Non-cholera Vibrio (NCV) species are important causes of disease. These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a 'natural experiment' that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In order to evaluate possible climatic contributions to observed increases in NCV infection, we obtained NCV case counts for the United States from publicly available surveillance data. Trends and impacts of large-scale oceanic phenomena, including ENSO, were evaluated using negative binomial and distributed non-linear lag models (DNLM). Associations between latitude and changing risk were evaluated with meta-regression. Trend models demonstrated expected seasonality (P < 0.001) and a 7% (6.1%–8.1%) annual increase in incidence from 1999 to 2014. DNLM demonstrated increased vibriosis risk following ENSO conditions over the subsequent 12 months (relative risk 1.940, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.298–2.901). The 'relative–relative risk' (RRR) of annual disease incidence increased with latitude (RRR per 10° increase 1.066, 95% CI 1.027–1.107). We conclude that NCV risk in the United States is impacted by ocean warming, which is likely to intensify with climate change, increasing NCV risk in vulnerable populations. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1017/S0950268819001316 |
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These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a 'natural experiment' that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In order to evaluate possible climatic contributions to observed increases in NCV infection, we obtained NCV case counts for the United States from publicly available surveillance data. Trends and impacts of large-scale oceanic phenomena, including ENSO, were evaluated using negative binomial and distributed non-linear lag models (DNLM). Associations between latitude and changing risk were evaluated with meta-regression. Trend models demonstrated expected seasonality (P < 0.001) and a 7% (6.1%–8.1%) annual increase in incidence from 1999 to 2014. DNLM demonstrated increased vibriosis risk following ENSO conditions over the subsequent 12 months (relative risk 1.940, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.298–2.901). The 'relative–relative risk' (RRR) of annual disease incidence increased with latitude (RRR per 10° increase 1.066, 95% CI 1.027–1.107). 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These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a 'natural experiment' that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In order to evaluate possible climatic contributions to observed increases in NCV infection, we obtained NCV case counts for the United States from publicly available surveillance data. Trends and impacts of large-scale oceanic phenomena, including ENSO, were evaluated using negative binomial and distributed non-linear lag models (DNLM). Associations between latitude and changing risk were evaluated with meta-regression. Trend models demonstrated expected seasonality (P < 0.001) and a 7% (6.1%–8.1%) annual increase in incidence from 1999 to 2014. DNLM demonstrated increased vibriosis risk following ENSO conditions over the subsequent 12 months (relative risk 1.940, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.298–2.901). The 'relative–relative risk' (RRR) of annual disease incidence increased with latitude (RRR per 10° increase 1.066, 95% CI 1.027–1.107). We conclude that NCV risk in the United States is impacted by ocean warming, which is likely to intensify with climate change, increasing NCV risk in vulnerable populations.</description><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Atmospheric pressure</subject><subject>Bacteria</subject><subject>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S</subject><subject>Cholera</subject><subject>Cholera - diagnosis</subject><subject>Cholera - epidemiology</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>Confidence intervals</subject><subject>Databases, Factual</subject><subject>Disease control</subject><subject>Disease Outbreaks</subject><subject>El Nino</subject><subject>El Nino-Southern Oscillation</subject><subject>Environmental risk</subject><subject>Health risks</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Latitude</subject><subject>Liver diseases</subject><subject>Nonlinear Dynamics</subject><subject>Ocean currents</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>Risk</subject><subject>Risk Assessment</subject><subject>Seafood</subject><subject>Seasonal variations</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>Southern Oscillation</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Surveillance</subject><subject>Systematic review</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>United States</subject><subject>Vibrio cholerae - 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Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>Epidemiology and infection</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Logar-Henderson, Chloë</au><au>Ling, Rebecca</au><au>Tuite, Ashleigh R.</au><au>Fisman, David N.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Effects of large-scale oceanic phenomena on non-cholera vibriosis incidence in the United States: implications for climate change</atitle><jtitle>Epidemiology and infection</jtitle><addtitle>Epidemiol Infect</addtitle><date>2019-01-01</date><risdate>2019</risdate><volume>147</volume><spage>1</spage><epage>7</epage><pages>1-7</pages><artnum>e243</artnum><issn>0950-2688</issn><eissn>1469-4409</eissn><abstract>Non-cholera Vibrio (NCV) species are important causes of disease. These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a 'natural experiment' that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In order to evaluate possible climatic contributions to observed increases in NCV infection, we obtained NCV case counts for the United States from publicly available surveillance data. Trends and impacts of large-scale oceanic phenomena, including ENSO, were evaluated using negative binomial and distributed non-linear lag models (DNLM). Associations between latitude and changing risk were evaluated with meta-regression. Trend models demonstrated expected seasonality (P < 0.001) and a 7% (6.1%–8.1%) annual increase in incidence from 1999 to 2014. DNLM demonstrated increased vibriosis risk following ENSO conditions over the subsequent 12 months (relative risk 1.940, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.298–2.901). The 'relative–relative risk' (RRR) of annual disease incidence increased with latitude (RRR per 10° increase 1.066, 95% CI 1.027–1.107). We conclude that NCV risk in the United States is impacted by ocean warming, which is likely to intensify with climate change, increasing NCV risk in vulnerable populations.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>Cambridge University Press</pub><pmid>31364581</pmid><doi>10.1017/S0950268819001316</doi><tpages>7</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5009-6926</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| source | MEDLINE; PubMed Central |
| subjects | Animals Atmospheric pressure Bacteria Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S Cholera Cholera - diagnosis Cholera - epidemiology Climate Change Confidence intervals Databases, Factual Disease control Disease Outbreaks El Nino El Nino-Southern Oscillation Environmental risk Health risks Humans Incidence Infections Infectious diseases Latitude Liver diseases Nonlinear Dynamics Ocean currents Original Paper Precipitation Regression analysis Retrospective Studies Risk Risk Assessment Seafood Seasonal variations Seasons Southern Oscillation Statistical analysis Surveillance Systematic review Temperature United States Vibrio cholerae - isolation & purification Vibrio Infections - diagnosis Vibrio Infections - epidemiology Vibriosis Waterborne diseases |
| title | Effects of large-scale oceanic phenomena on non-cholera vibriosis incidence in the United States: implications for climate change |
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