Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia
In this article, we use the macroeconometric model SLOPOL10 to calculate simulations of the development of the Slovenian economy until 2030. Starting from the present favourable prospects of the European economies, the forecast is very optimistic but it can nevertheless be improved by optimal fiscal...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Post-communist economies 2019-05, Vol.31 (3), p.325-348 |
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| creator | Blueschke, Dmitri Weyerstrass, Klaus Neck, Reinhard Majcen, Boris Srakar, Andrej Verbič, Miroslav |
| description | In this article, we use the macroeconometric model SLOPOL10 to calculate simulations of the development of the Slovenian economy until 2030. Starting from the present favourable prospects of the European economies, the forecast is very optimistic but it can nevertheless be improved by optimal fiscal policies as calculated using the OPTCON2 algorithm. If a negative shock to world trade of a size comparable to the Great Recession occurs, it will entail a decline in GDP and a slow recovery. In this case, optimal fiscal policies should not act in an expansionary way as the effectiveness of fiscal policy with respect to output and employment is rather limited in a small open economy like Slovenia. Instead, the goal of budget consolidation will call for a more restrictive fiscal policy, at least if the shock is temporary. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1080/14631377.2018.1537735 |
| format | Article |
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| ispartof | Post-communist economies, 2019-05, Vol.31 (3), p.325-348 |
| issn | 1463-1377 1465-3958 |
| language | eng |
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| source | PAIS Index; EBSCOhost Business Source Complete |
| subjects | Case studies crisis Employment Fiscal policy Macroeconomics Optimism Prospects public debt Slovenia |
| title | Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia |
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