Risk Factors for 3-Year-Mortality and a Tool to Screen Patient in Dialysis Population
Introduction: Clinical parameters especially co-morbidities among end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients are associated with mortality. This study aims to determine the risk factors that are associated with mortality within three years among prevalent patients with ESRD. Methods: This is a cohort s...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Indian journal of nephrology 2019-07, Vol.29 (4), p.235-241 |
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description | Introduction: Clinical parameters especially co-morbidities among end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients are associated with mortality. This study aims to determine the risk factors that are associated with mortality within three years among prevalent patients with ESRD. Methods: This is a cohort study where prevalent ESRD patients' details were recorded between May 2012 and October 2012. Their records were matched with national death record at the end of year 2015 to identify the deceased patients within three years. Four models were formulated with two models were based on logistic regression models but with different number of predictors and two models were developed based on risk scoring technique. The preferred models were validated by using sensitivity and specificity analysis. Results: A total of 1332 patients were included in the study. Majority succumbed due to cardiovascular disease (48.3%) and sepsis (41.3%). The identified risk factors were mode of dialysis (P < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (P < 0.001), chronic heart disease (P < 0.001) and leg amputation (P = 0.016). The accuracy of four models was almost similar with AUC between 0.680 and 0.711. The predictive models from logistic regression model and risk scoring model were selected as the preferred models based on both accuracy and simplicity. Besides the mode of dialysis, diabetes mellitus and its complications are the important predictors for early mortality among prevalent ESRD patients. Conclusions: The models either based on logistic regression or risk scoring model can be used to screen high risk prevalent ESRD patients. |
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This study aims to determine the risk factors that are associated with mortality within three years among prevalent patients with ESRD. Methods: This is a cohort study where prevalent ESRD patients' details were recorded between May 2012 and October 2012. Their records were matched with national death record at the end of year 2015 to identify the deceased patients within three years. Four models were formulated with two models were based on logistic regression models but with different number of predictors and two models were developed based on risk scoring technique. The preferred models were validated by using sensitivity and specificity analysis. Results: A total of 1332 patients were included in the study. Majority succumbed due to cardiovascular disease (48.3%) and sepsis (41.3%). The identified risk factors were mode of dialysis (P < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (P < 0.001), chronic heart disease (P < 0.001) and leg amputation (P = 0.016). The accuracy of four models was almost similar with AUC between 0.680 and 0.711. The predictive models from logistic regression model and risk scoring model were selected as the preferred models based on both accuracy and simplicity. Besides the mode of dialysis, diabetes mellitus and its complications are the important predictors for early mortality among prevalent ESRD patients. Conclusions: The models either based on logistic regression or risk scoring model can be used to screen high risk prevalent ESRD patients.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0971-4065</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1998-3662</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.4103/ijn.IJN_152_18</identifier><identifier>PMID: 31423056</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>India: Wolters Kluwer India Pvt. Ltd</publisher><subject>Analysis ; Cardiovascular disease ; Chronic kidney failure ; Death ; Diabetes ; Health aspects ; Hemodialysis patients ; Hypertension ; Kidney diseases ; Medical research ; Mortality ; Multivariate analysis ; Original ; Patient outcomes ; Patients ; Peritoneal dialysis ; Prevalence studies (Epidemiology) ; Risk assessment ; Risk factors ; Sepsis ; Studies ; Variables</subject><ispartof>Indian journal of nephrology, 2019-07, Vol.29 (4), p.235-241</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2019 Medknow Publications and Media Pvt. Ltd.</rights><rights>2019. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>Copyright: © 2019 Indian Journal of Nephrology 2019</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c597t-2918609945d5cccda0e1ffc21baa5de3a2fea9cb844ffe1dc934533c8e652a43</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c597t-2918609945d5cccda0e1ffc21baa5de3a2fea9cb844ffe1dc934533c8e652a43</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6668314/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6668314/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,885,27458,27924,27925,53791,53793</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31423056$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Bujang, M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kuan, P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sapri, F</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Musa, R</creatorcontrib><title>Risk Factors for 3-Year-Mortality and a Tool to Screen Patient in Dialysis Population</title><title>Indian journal of nephrology</title><addtitle>Indian J Nephrol</addtitle><description>Introduction: Clinical parameters especially co-morbidities among end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients are associated with mortality. This study aims to determine the risk factors that are associated with mortality within three years among prevalent patients with ESRD. Methods: This is a cohort study where prevalent ESRD patients' details were recorded between May 2012 and October 2012. Their records were matched with national death record at the end of year 2015 to identify the deceased patients within three years. Four models were formulated with two models were based on logistic regression models but with different number of predictors and two models were developed based on risk scoring technique. The preferred models were validated by using sensitivity and specificity analysis. Results: A total of 1332 patients were included in the study. Majority succumbed due to cardiovascular disease (48.3%) and sepsis (41.3%). The identified risk factors were mode of dialysis (P < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (P < 0.001), chronic heart disease (P < 0.001) and leg amputation (P = 0.016). The accuracy of four models was almost similar with AUC between 0.680 and 0.711. The predictive models from logistic regression model and risk scoring model were selected as the preferred models based on both accuracy and simplicity. Besides the mode of dialysis, diabetes mellitus and its complications are the important predictors for early mortality among prevalent ESRD patients. Conclusions: The models either based on logistic regression or risk scoring model can be used to screen high risk prevalent ESRD patients.</description><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Cardiovascular disease</subject><subject>Chronic kidney failure</subject><subject>Death</subject><subject>Diabetes</subject><subject>Health aspects</subject><subject>Hemodialysis patients</subject><subject>Hypertension</subject><subject>Kidney diseases</subject><subject>Medical research</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Multivariate analysis</subject><subject>Original</subject><subject>Patient outcomes</subject><subject>Patients</subject><subject>Peritoneal dialysis</subject><subject>Prevalence studies (Epidemiology)</subject><subject>Risk assessment</subject><subject>Risk factors</subject><subject>Sepsis</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Variables</subject><issn>0971-4065</issn><issn>1998-3662</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2019</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNp1ks1vEzEQxVcIREPhyhFZQqp62eCP9e76glSVFooKVBAkOFmOd7Zx4tjB9hLlv8dRQ0mrIh8sjX_zPH5-RfGS4HFFMHtj5m588fGzJJxK0j4qRkSItmR1TR8XIywaUla45gfFsxjnGFNeCf60OGCkogzzelR8_2riAp0rnXyIqPcBsfInqFB-8iEpa9IGKdchhSbeW5Q8-qYDgENXKhlwCRmH3hllN9FEdOVXg811754XT3plI7zY7YfF5PxscvqhvPzy_uL05LLUXDSppIK0NRai4h3XWncKA-l7TclUKd4BU7QHJfS0raq-B9JpwSrOmG6h5lRV7LB4eyO7GqZL6HQeKCgrV8EsVdhIr4y8e-LMTF7737Ku6zZ7kAWOdwLB_xogJrk0UYO1yoEfoqS04Xm6qsEZfX0PnfshuPy6TPE2-9qIPepaWZDG9T7fq7ei8oQLxmn-DJKp8QNUXh0sjfYOepPrdxqO9hpmoGyaRW-HrdfxQWUdfIwB-lszCJbbwMgcGPkvMLnh1b6Ft_jfhGTgxw2w9jZBiAs7rCHIzC6cX_9HVlLG5TZZcpcsmZMl7yWL_QEmrdp4</recordid><startdate>20190701</startdate><enddate>20190701</enddate><creator>Bujang, M</creator><creator>Kuan, P</creator><creator>Sapri, F</creator><creator>Liu, W</creator><creator>Musa, R</creator><general>Wolters Kluwer India Pvt. 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This study aims to determine the risk factors that are associated with mortality within three years among prevalent patients with ESRD. Methods: This is a cohort study where prevalent ESRD patients' details were recorded between May 2012 and October 2012. Their records were matched with national death record at the end of year 2015 to identify the deceased patients within three years. Four models were formulated with two models were based on logistic regression models but with different number of predictors and two models were developed based on risk scoring technique. The preferred models were validated by using sensitivity and specificity analysis. Results: A total of 1332 patients were included in the study. Majority succumbed due to cardiovascular disease (48.3%) and sepsis (41.3%). The identified risk factors were mode of dialysis (P < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (P < 0.001), chronic heart disease (P < 0.001) and leg amputation (P = 0.016). The accuracy of four models was almost similar with AUC between 0.680 and 0.711. The predictive models from logistic regression model and risk scoring model were selected as the preferred models based on both accuracy and simplicity. Besides the mode of dialysis, diabetes mellitus and its complications are the important predictors for early mortality among prevalent ESRD patients. Conclusions: The models either based on logistic regression or risk scoring model can be used to screen high risk prevalent ESRD patients.</abstract><cop>India</cop><pub>Wolters Kluwer India Pvt. Ltd</pub><pmid>31423056</pmid><doi>10.4103/ijn.IJN_152_18</doi><tpages>7</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Analysis Cardiovascular disease Chronic kidney failure Death Diabetes Health aspects Hemodialysis patients Hypertension Kidney diseases Medical research Mortality Multivariate analysis Original Patient outcomes Patients Peritoneal dialysis Prevalence studies (Epidemiology) Risk assessment Risk factors Sepsis Studies Variables |
title | Risk Factors for 3-Year-Mortality and a Tool to Screen Patient in Dialysis Population |
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