Uncertainty Analysis of Mobile Phone Use and Its Effect on Cognitive Function: The Application of Monte Carlo Simulation in a Cohort of Australian Primary School Children

Previous epidemiological studies on health effects of radiation exposure from mobile phones have produced inconsistent results. This may be due to experimental difficulties and various sources of uncertainty, such as statistical variability, measurement errors, and model uncertainty. An analytical t...

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Veröffentlicht in:International journal of environmental research and public health 2019-07, Vol.16 (13), p.2428
Hauptverfasser: Brzozek, Christopher, Benke, Kurt K, Zeleke, Berihun M, Croft, Rodney J, Dalecki, Anna, Dimitriadis, Christina, Kaufman, Jordy, Sim, Malcolm R, Abramson, Michael J, Benke, Geza
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creator Brzozek, Christopher
Benke, Kurt K
Zeleke, Berihun M
Croft, Rodney J
Dalecki, Anna
Dimitriadis, Christina
Kaufman, Jordy
Sim, Malcolm R
Abramson, Michael J
Benke, Geza
description Previous epidemiological studies on health effects of radiation exposure from mobile phones have produced inconsistent results. This may be due to experimental difficulties and various sources of uncertainty, such as statistical variability, measurement errors, and model uncertainty. An analytical technique known as the Monte Carlo simulation provides an additional approach to analysis by addressing uncertainty in model inputs using error probability distributions, rather than point-source data. The aim of this investigation was to demonstrate using Monte Carlo simulation of data from the ExPOSURE (Examination of Psychological Outcomes in Students using Radiofrequency dEvices) study to quantify uncertainty in the output of the model. Data were collected twice, approximately one year apart (between 2011 and 2013) for 412 primary school participants in Australia. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate output uncertainty in the model due to uncertainties in the call exposure data. Multiple linear regression models evaluated associations between mobile phone calls with cognitive function and found weak evidence of an association. Similar to previous longitudinal analysis, associations were found for the Go/No Go and Groton maze learning tasks, and a Stroop time ratio. However, with the introduction of uncertainty analysis, the results were closer to the null hypothesis.
doi_str_mv 10.3390/ijerph16132428
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subjects Australia
Cell Phone Use
Cell phones
Cellular telephones
Child
Children
Cognition
Cognitive ability
Cognitive tasks
Cohort Studies
Computer simulation
Education
Exposure
Government agencies
Humans
Hypercubes
Latin hypercube sampling
Memory
Mental task performance
Monte Carlo Method
Monte Carlo simulation
Random numbers
Random sampling
Reaction time
Reaction time task
Records
Research ethics
Response time
Sampling
Schools
Short term memory
Statistical sampling
Students
Studies
Teenagers
Uncertainty
Uncertainty analysis
Visual tasks
title Uncertainty Analysis of Mobile Phone Use and Its Effect on Cognitive Function: The Application of Monte Carlo Simulation in a Cohort of Australian Primary School Children
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