Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol
IntroductionSmoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | BMJ open 2018-03, Vol.8 (3), p.e019169-e019169 |
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| creator | Tam, Jamie Levy, David T Jeon, Jihyoun Clarke, John Gilkeson, Scott Hall, Tim Feuer, Eric J Holford, Theodore R Meza, Rafael |
| description | IntroductionSmoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes.Methods and analysisWe extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke.Ethics and disseminationA web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019169 |
| format | Article |
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Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes.Methods and analysisWe extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke.Ethics and disseminationA web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2044-6055</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2044-6055</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019169</identifier><identifier>PMID: 29574440</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: BMJ Publishing Group LTD</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Adult ; Age ; Age Factors ; Aged ; Air cleanliness ; Cancer ; Child ; Computer Simulation ; Disease control ; Disease prevention ; Estimates ; Expenditures ; Female ; Gender ; Health surveillance ; Humans ; Internet ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; Population ; Public Health ; Research Design ; Smoke-Free Policy - legislation & jurisprudence ; Smoking - epidemiology ; Smoking - trends ; Smoking and Tobacco ; Smoking cessation ; Smoking Cessation - statistics & numerical data ; Smoking Prevention - economics ; Smoking Prevention - methods ; Taxes - legislation & jurisprudence ; Tobacco smoke ; United States - epidemiology ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>BMJ open, 2018-03, Vol.8 (3), p.e019169-e019169</ispartof><rights>Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.</rights><rights>2018 Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted. This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted. 2018</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-b538t-5428f247f29f3cbf898e1bfd88f44182aeb5f14192ec986ba46b9e9c629b54323</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-b538t-5428f247f29f3cbf898e1bfd88f44182aeb5f14192ec986ba46b9e9c629b54323</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-4842-7751 ; 0000-0001-8353-4259</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/8/3/e019169.full.pdf$$EPDF$$P50$$Gbmj$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/8/3/e019169.full$$EHTML$$P50$$Gbmj$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,315,729,782,786,866,887,27556,27557,27931,27932,53798,53800,77609,77640</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29574440$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Tam, Jamie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Levy, David T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jeon, Jihyoun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clarke, John</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gilkeson, Scott</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hall, Tim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Feuer, Eric J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Holford, Theodore R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Meza, Rafael</creatorcontrib><title>Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol</title><title>BMJ open</title><addtitle>BMJ Open</addtitle><description>IntroductionSmoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes.Methods and analysisWe extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke.Ethics and disseminationA web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. 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statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Smoking Prevention - economics</subject><subject>Smoking Prevention - methods</subject><subject>Taxes - legislation & jurisprudence</subject><subject>Tobacco smoke</subject><subject>United States - epidemiology</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>2044-6055</issn><issn>2044-6055</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>9YT</sourceid><sourceid>ACMMV</sourceid><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkU1rFTEUhoMottT-AkECbtxMO8nk04VQih-FgoJ2HZLc5N5cZuaMyUyh_96M91qqK7M5CXnOy3vOi9Br0l4Q0olLN-xhCmNDWyKblmgi9DN0SlvGGtFy_vzJ_QSdl7Jv62Fcc05fohOquWSMtado-y3DPvg5jVs87wIOMdZXwRDxDM56D9jDOGfo8QR98ikUnMbf6N33q1ozLNsdHpLPUNKw9HZOML7HFpd52TzgKcMMHvpX6EW0fQnnx3qG7j59_HH9pbn9-vnm-uq2cbxTc8MZVZEyGamOnXdRaRWIixulImNEURscj4QRTYPXSjjLhNNBe0G146yj3Rn6cNCdFjeEjQ_Vu-3NlNNg84MBm8zfP2PamS3cG64kF6qrAu-OAhl-LqHMZkjFh763Y4ClmLpwJYSU3Yq-_Qfdw5LHOl6ltJaaSbU66g7UuqGSQ3w0Q1qzZmmOWa7S0hyyrF1vns7x2PMnuQpcHIDa_V-KvwBeZKxz</recordid><startdate>20180301</startdate><enddate>20180301</enddate><creator>Tam, Jamie</creator><creator>Levy, David T</creator><creator>Jeon, Jihyoun</creator><creator>Clarke, John</creator><creator>Gilkeson, Scott</creator><creator>Hall, Tim</creator><creator>Feuer, Eric J</creator><creator>Holford, Theodore R</creator><creator>Meza, Rafael</creator><general>BMJ Publishing Group LTD</general><general>BMJ Publishing Group</general><scope>9YT</scope><scope>ACMMV</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>88G</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BTHHO</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>K9-</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>M0R</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M2M</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PSYQQ</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4842-7751</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8353-4259</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20180301</creationdate><title>Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol</title><author>Tam, Jamie ; Levy, David T ; Jeon, Jihyoun ; Clarke, John ; Gilkeson, Scott ; Hall, Tim ; Feuer, Eric J ; Holford, Theodore R ; Meza, Rafael</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-b538t-5428f247f29f3cbf898e1bfd88f44182aeb5f14192ec986ba46b9e9c629b54323</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2018</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Age</topic><topic>Age Factors</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Air cleanliness</topic><topic>Cancer</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Computer Simulation</topic><topic>Disease control</topic><topic>Disease prevention</topic><topic>Estimates</topic><topic>Expenditures</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Gender</topic><topic>Health surveillance</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Internet</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Population</topic><topic>Public Health</topic><topic>Research Design</topic><topic>Smoke-Free Policy - legislation & jurisprudence</topic><topic>Smoking - epidemiology</topic><topic>Smoking - trends</topic><topic>Smoking and Tobacco</topic><topic>Smoking cessation</topic><topic>Smoking Cessation - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Smoking Prevention - economics</topic><topic>Smoking Prevention - methods</topic><topic>Taxes - legislation & jurisprudence</topic><topic>Tobacco smoke</topic><topic>United States - epidemiology</topic><topic>Young Adult</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Tam, Jamie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Levy, David T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jeon, Jihyoun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Clarke, John</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gilkeson, Scott</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hall, Tim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Feuer, Eric J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Holford, Theodore R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Meza, Rafael</creatorcontrib><collection>BMJ Open Access Journals</collection><collection>BMJ Journals:Open Access</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Psychology Database (Alumni)</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>BMJ Journals</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Consumer Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Consumer Health Database</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Psychology Database</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>Access via ProQuest (Open Access)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>ProQuest One Psychology</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>BMJ open</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Tam, Jamie</au><au>Levy, David T</au><au>Jeon, Jihyoun</au><au>Clarke, John</au><au>Gilkeson, Scott</au><au>Hall, Tim</au><au>Feuer, Eric J</au><au>Holford, Theodore R</au><au>Meza, Rafael</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol</atitle><jtitle>BMJ open</jtitle><addtitle>BMJ Open</addtitle><date>2018-03-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>8</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>e019169</spage><epage>e019169</epage><pages>e019169-e019169</pages><issn>2044-6055</issn><eissn>2044-6055</eissn><abstract>IntroductionSmoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes.Methods and analysisWe extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke.Ethics and disseminationA web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>BMJ Publishing Group LTD</pub><pmid>29574440</pmid><doi>10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019169</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4842-7751</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8353-4259</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adolescent Adult Age Age Factors Aged Air cleanliness Cancer Child Computer Simulation Disease control Disease prevention Estimates Expenditures Female Gender Health surveillance Humans Internet Male Middle Aged Mortality Population Public Health Research Design Smoke-Free Policy - legislation & jurisprudence Smoking - epidemiology Smoking - trends Smoking and Tobacco Smoking cessation Smoking Cessation - statistics & numerical data Smoking Prevention - economics Smoking Prevention - methods Taxes - legislation & jurisprudence Tobacco smoke United States - epidemiology Young Adult |
| title | Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol |
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