Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study
ObjectivesWe aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing.DesignUsing Google Tren...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | BMJ global health 2017-08, Vol.2 (3), p.e000296-e000296 |
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| creator | Adebayo, Gbenga Neumark, Yehuda Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat Abu Ahmad, Wiessam Levine, Hagai |
| description | ObjectivesWe aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing.DesignUsing Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases.ResultsGlobally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748–0.922; p |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000296 |
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Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases.ResultsGlobally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748–0.922; p<0.001) were observed between online trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R2=0.345; p<0.001) and CDC (stationary-R2=0.318; p=0.014).ConclusionsThese results suggest that online trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2059-7908</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2059-7908</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000296</identifier><identifier>PMID: 29082006</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: BMJ Publishing Group LTD</publisher><subject>Global health ; Health risks ; Influenza ; Pandemics ; Public health ; Trends ; Vector-borne diseases ; Zika virus</subject><ispartof>BMJ global health, 2017-08, Vol.2 (3), p.e000296-e000296</ispartof><rights>Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.</rights><rights>2017 Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted. This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted. 2017</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-b530t-5b4cb9bd7757b369a21803f760719eb433da0495cb124e1d2fb8d96c869057433</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-b530t-5b4cb9bd7757b369a21803f760719eb433da0495cb124e1d2fb8d96c869057433</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-6410-3637 ; 0000-0002-5597-4916</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttp://gh.bmj.com/content/2/3/e000296.full.pdf$$EPDF$$P50$$Gbmj$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttp://gh.bmj.com/content/2/3/e000296.full$$EHTML$$P50$$Gbmj$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,860,881,27526,27527,27901,27902,53766,53768,77570,77601</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29082006$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Adebayo, Gbenga</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Neumark, Yehuda</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Abu Ahmad, Wiessam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Levine, Hagai</creatorcontrib><title>Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study</title><title>BMJ global health</title><addtitle>BMJ Glob Health</addtitle><description>ObjectivesWe aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing.DesignUsing Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases.ResultsGlobally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748–0.922; p<0.001) were observed between online trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R2=0.345; p<0.001) and CDC (stationary-R2=0.318; p=0.014).ConclusionsThese results suggest that online trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.</description><subject>Global health</subject><subject>Health risks</subject><subject>Influenza</subject><subject>Pandemics</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Vector-borne diseases</subject><subject>Zika virus</subject><issn>2059-7908</issn><issn>2059-7908</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>9YT</sourceid><sourceid>ACMMV</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkUtLLDEQhYNcUVF_gBsJuHFha5LuJB0Xggy-QHCjIG5CXuNk7E7mJt2C_97ojOJ1dTdVReo7hxQHgD2MjjGu2Ynu58-ziiDMK4QQEWwNbBFERcUFav_8mDfBbs7zwmBeCmIbYJOUZ1LGLfD45F8UXKhgXe8NjKHzwcEhuWDzEfTBeOuCcbAAcOZUN8xg8vkFmtj3Y_BGDT6GU6jg4PuVDuZhtG87YH2quux2V30bPFxe3E-uq9u7q5vJ-W2laY2GiurGaKEt55TrmglFcIvqKWeIY-F0U9dWoUZQozFpHLZkqlsrmGmZQJSX9TY4W_ouRt07a1wYkurkIvlepTcZlZf_boKfyef4KimjDJO2GByuDFL8O7o8yN5n47pOBRfHLLGgnDNBUVPQg1_oPI4plPMkoRRzStuWFgovKZNizslNvz-DkfyITn5GJz-ik8voimb_5xXfiq-gCnC0BIr2P_zeAZrOouI</recordid><startdate>20170801</startdate><enddate>20170801</enddate><creator>Adebayo, Gbenga</creator><creator>Neumark, Yehuda</creator><creator>Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat</creator><creator>Abu Ahmad, Wiessam</creator><creator>Levine, Hagai</creator><general>BMJ Publishing Group LTD</general><general>BMJ Global Health</general><scope>9YT</scope><scope>ACMMV</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>PHGZM</scope><scope>PHGZT</scope><scope>PJZUB</scope><scope>PKEHL</scope><scope>PPXIY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6410-3637</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5597-4916</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20170801</creationdate><title>Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study</title><author>Adebayo, Gbenga ; Neumark, Yehuda ; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat ; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam ; Levine, Hagai</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-b530t-5b4cb9bd7757b369a21803f760719eb433da0495cb124e1d2fb8d96c869057433</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Global health</topic><topic>Health risks</topic><topic>Influenza</topic><topic>Pandemics</topic><topic>Public health</topic><topic>Trends</topic><topic>Vector-borne diseases</topic><topic>Zika virus</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Adebayo, Gbenga</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Neumark, Yehuda</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Abu Ahmad, Wiessam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Levine, Hagai</creatorcontrib><collection>BMJ Open Access Journals</collection><collection>BMJ Journals:Open Access</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (New)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic (New)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Research Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Health & Nursing</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>BMJ global health</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Adebayo, Gbenga</au><au>Neumark, Yehuda</au><au>Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat</au><au>Abu Ahmad, Wiessam</au><au>Levine, Hagai</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study</atitle><jtitle>BMJ global health</jtitle><addtitle>BMJ Glob Health</addtitle><date>2017-08-01</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>2</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>e000296</spage><epage>e000296</epage><pages>e000296-e000296</pages><issn>2059-7908</issn><eissn>2059-7908</eissn><abstract>ObjectivesWe aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing.DesignUsing Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases.ResultsGlobally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748–0.922; p<0.001) were observed between online trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R2=0.345; p<0.001) and CDC (stationary-R2=0.318; p=0.014).ConclusionsThese results suggest that online trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>BMJ Publishing Group LTD</pub><pmid>29082006</pmid><doi>10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000296</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6410-3637</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5597-4916</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Global health Health risks Influenza Pandemics Public health Trends Vector-borne diseases Zika virus |
| title | Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study |
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