Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model
This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | International journal of environmental research and public health 2017-08, Vol.14 (8), p.925 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 8 |
| container_start_page | 925 |
| container_title | International journal of environmental research and public health |
| container_volume | 14 |
| creator | Xu, Qinqin Li, Runzi Liu, Yafei Luo, Cheng Xu, Aiqiang Xue, Fuzhong Xu, Qing Li, Xiujun |
| description | This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were defined as a test set for the model. From 2005 to 2014, a total of 8722 cases of mumps were reported in Zibo City; the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.85:1, the age group of 1-20 years old accounted for 94.05% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (65.89%). The main serious endemic areas of mumps were located in Huantai County, Linzi District, and Boshan District of Zibo City. There were two epidemic peaks from April to July and from October to January in next year. The fitted model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)
was established (AIC = 157.528), which has high validity and reasonability. The SARIMA model fitted dynamic changes of mumps in Zibo City well. It can be used for short-term forecasting and early warning of mumps. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.3390/ijerph14080925 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_pubme</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_5580627</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>1939930931</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c484t-4bd84307346b619dbb84048e687629ee19009b41b72ee1eca398a3ce4c0f547c3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNpdkc1LAzEQxYMoflSvHiXgxUtrskmzyUWoxdaCRfDj4iVks1Obsk1qsiv0v3eLWqqnmWF-83jDQ-ickh5jily7BcTVnHIiicr6e-iYCkG6XBC6v9MfoZOUFoQwyYU6REeZlDSnhB6j8ShEsCbVzr_jeg544q0rwVvAYYanzXKVsPP4zRUBD129xrcmQYmDxwY_D54m0wGehhKqU3QwM1WCs5_aQa-ju5fhfffhcTwZDh66lkted3lRSs5IzrgoBFVlUUhOuAQhc5EpAKoIUQWnRZ61Q2uMKWmYBW7JrM9zyzro5lt31RRLKC34OppKr6JbmrjWwTj9d-PdXL-HT93vSyKyvBW4-hGI4aOBVOulSxaqyngITdJUsdYQ42qDXv5DF6GJvn1vQ6kWVIy2VO-bsjGkFGG2NUOJ3mSk_2bUHlzsvrDFf0NhX-0Ri8s</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Open Access Repository</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1939930931</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals</source><source>PubMed Central Open Access</source><source>MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute</source><source>PubMed Central</source><source>Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry</source><creator>Xu, Qinqin ; Li, Runzi ; Liu, Yafei ; Luo, Cheng ; Xu, Aiqiang ; Xue, Fuzhong ; Xu, Qing ; Li, Xiujun</creator><creatorcontrib>Xu, Qinqin ; Li, Runzi ; Liu, Yafei ; Luo, Cheng ; Xu, Aiqiang ; Xue, Fuzhong ; Xu, Qing ; Li, Xiujun</creatorcontrib><description>This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were defined as a test set for the model. From 2005 to 2014, a total of 8722 cases of mumps were reported in Zibo City; the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.85:1, the age group of 1-20 years old accounted for 94.05% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (65.89%). The main serious endemic areas of mumps were located in Huantai County, Linzi District, and Boshan District of Zibo City. There were two epidemic peaks from April to July and from October to January in next year. The fitted model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)
was established (AIC = 157.528), which has high validity and reasonability. The SARIMA model fitted dynamic changes of mumps in Zibo City well. It can be used for short-term forecasting and early warning of mumps.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1660-4601</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1661-7827</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1660-4601</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.3390/ijerph14080925</identifier><identifier>PMID: 28817101</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Switzerland: MDPI AG</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Age ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; China - epidemiology ; Cities - epidemiology ; Data collection ; Disease control ; Disease prevention ; Epidemics ; Epidemiology ; Female ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Infectious diseases ; Male ; Mortality ; Mumps ; Mumps - epidemiology ; Mumps - virology ; Public health ; Retrospective Studies ; Seasons ; Statistical analysis ; Time series ; Trends ; Tropical diseases ; Vaccines ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>International journal of environmental research and public health, 2017-08, Vol.14 (8), p.925</ispartof><rights>Copyright MDPI AG 2017</rights><rights>2017 by the authors. 2017</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c484t-4bd84307346b619dbb84048e687629ee19009b41b72ee1eca398a3ce4c0f547c3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c484t-4bd84307346b619dbb84048e687629ee19009b41b72ee1eca398a3ce4c0f547c3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5580627/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5580627/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,315,729,782,786,887,27931,27932,53798,53800</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28817101$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Xu, Qinqin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Runzi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Yafei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Luo, Cheng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Aiqiang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xue, Fuzhong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Qing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Xiujun</creatorcontrib><title>Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model</title><title>International journal of environmental research and public health</title><addtitle>Int J Environ Res Public Health</addtitle><description>This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were defined as a test set for the model. From 2005 to 2014, a total of 8722 cases of mumps were reported in Zibo City; the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.85:1, the age group of 1-20 years old accounted for 94.05% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (65.89%). The main serious endemic areas of mumps were located in Huantai County, Linzi District, and Boshan District of Zibo City. There were two epidemic peaks from April to July and from October to January in next year. The fitted model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)
was established (AIC = 157.528), which has high validity and reasonability. The SARIMA model fitted dynamic changes of mumps in Zibo City well. It can be used for short-term forecasting and early warning of mumps.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>China - epidemiology</subject><subject>Cities - epidemiology</subject><subject>Data collection</subject><subject>Disease control</subject><subject>Disease prevention</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Infant</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Mumps</subject><subject>Mumps - epidemiology</subject><subject>Mumps - virology</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Time series</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Tropical diseases</subject><subject>Vaccines</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>1660-4601</issn><issn>1661-7827</issn><issn>1660-4601</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><recordid>eNpdkc1LAzEQxYMoflSvHiXgxUtrskmzyUWoxdaCRfDj4iVks1Obsk1qsiv0v3eLWqqnmWF-83jDQ-ickh5jily7BcTVnHIiicr6e-iYCkG6XBC6v9MfoZOUFoQwyYU6REeZlDSnhB6j8ShEsCbVzr_jeg544q0rwVvAYYanzXKVsPP4zRUBD129xrcmQYmDxwY_D54m0wGehhKqU3QwM1WCs5_aQa-ju5fhfffhcTwZDh66lkted3lRSs5IzrgoBFVlUUhOuAQhc5EpAKoIUQWnRZ61Q2uMKWmYBW7JrM9zyzro5lt31RRLKC34OppKr6JbmrjWwTj9d-PdXL-HT93vSyKyvBW4-hGI4aOBVOulSxaqyngITdJUsdYQ42qDXv5DF6GJvn1vQ6kWVIy2VO-bsjGkFGG2NUOJ3mSk_2bUHlzsvrDFf0NhX-0Ri8s</recordid><startdate>20170817</startdate><enddate>20170817</enddate><creator>Xu, Qinqin</creator><creator>Li, Runzi</creator><creator>Liu, Yafei</creator><creator>Luo, Cheng</creator><creator>Xu, Aiqiang</creator><creator>Xue, Fuzhong</creator><creator>Xu, Qing</creator><creator>Li, Xiujun</creator><general>MDPI AG</general><general>MDPI</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20170817</creationdate><title>Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model</title><author>Xu, Qinqin ; Li, Runzi ; Liu, Yafei ; Luo, Cheng ; Xu, Aiqiang ; Xue, Fuzhong ; Xu, Qing ; Li, Xiujun</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c484t-4bd84307346b619dbb84048e687629ee19009b41b72ee1eca398a3ce4c0f547c3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Age</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Child, Preschool</topic><topic>China - epidemiology</topic><topic>Cities - epidemiology</topic><topic>Data collection</topic><topic>Disease control</topic><topic>Disease prevention</topic><topic>Epidemics</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Infant</topic><topic>Infectious diseases</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Mumps</topic><topic>Mumps - epidemiology</topic><topic>Mumps - virology</topic><topic>Public health</topic><topic>Retrospective Studies</topic><topic>Seasons</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Time series</topic><topic>Trends</topic><topic>Tropical diseases</topic><topic>Vaccines</topic><topic>Young Adult</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Xu, Qinqin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Runzi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Yafei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Luo, Cheng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Aiqiang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xue, Fuzhong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Qing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Xiujun</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Access via ProQuest (Open Access)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>International journal of environmental research and public health</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Xu, Qinqin</au><au>Li, Runzi</au><au>Liu, Yafei</au><au>Luo, Cheng</au><au>Xu, Aiqiang</au><au>Xue, Fuzhong</au><au>Xu, Qing</au><au>Li, Xiujun</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model</atitle><jtitle>International journal of environmental research and public health</jtitle><addtitle>Int J Environ Res Public Health</addtitle><date>2017-08-17</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>14</volume><issue>8</issue><spage>925</spage><pages>925-</pages><issn>1660-4601</issn><issn>1661-7827</issn><eissn>1660-4601</eissn><abstract>This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were defined as a test set for the model. From 2005 to 2014, a total of 8722 cases of mumps were reported in Zibo City; the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.85:1, the age group of 1-20 years old accounted for 94.05% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (65.89%). The main serious endemic areas of mumps were located in Huantai County, Linzi District, and Boshan District of Zibo City. There were two epidemic peaks from April to July and from October to January in next year. The fitted model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)
was established (AIC = 157.528), which has high validity and reasonability. The SARIMA model fitted dynamic changes of mumps in Zibo City well. It can be used for short-term forecasting and early warning of mumps.</abstract><cop>Switzerland</cop><pub>MDPI AG</pub><pmid>28817101</pmid><doi>10.3390/ijerph14080925</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1660-4601 |
| ispartof | International journal of environmental research and public health, 2017-08, Vol.14 (8), p.925 |
| issn | 1660-4601 1661-7827 1660-4601 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_5580627 |
| source | MEDLINE; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; PubMed Central Open Access; MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute; PubMed Central; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry |
| subjects | Adolescent Age Child Child, Preschool China - epidemiology Cities - epidemiology Data collection Disease control Disease prevention Epidemics Epidemiology Female Forecasting Humans Incidence Infant Infectious diseases Male Mortality Mumps Mumps - epidemiology Mumps - virology Public health Retrospective Studies Seasons Statistical analysis Time series Trends Tropical diseases Vaccines Young Adult |
| title | Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-04T07%3A29%3A50IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_pubme&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Forecasting%20the%20Incidence%20of%20Mumps%20in%20Zibo%20City%20Based%20on%20a%20SARIMA%20Model&rft.jtitle=International%20journal%20of%20environmental%20research%20and%20public%20health&rft.au=Xu,%20Qinqin&rft.date=2017-08-17&rft.volume=14&rft.issue=8&rft.spage=925&rft.pages=925-&rft.issn=1660-4601&rft.eissn=1660-4601&rft_id=info:doi/10.3390/ijerph14080925&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_pubme%3E1939930931%3C/proquest_pubme%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1939930931&rft_id=info:pmid/28817101&rfr_iscdi=true |