Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased signific...

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Veröffentlicht in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2016-10, Vol.113 (43), p.12071-12075
Hauptverfasser: Lin, Ning, Kopp, Robert E., Horton, Benjamin P., Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
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Climate
Floods
Hazards
Hurricanes
Physical Sciences
Sea level
Tidal waves
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container_end_page 12075
container_issue 43
container_start_page 12071
container_title Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS
container_volume 113
creator Lin, Ning
Kopp, Robert E.
Horton, Benjamin P.
Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
description Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.
doi_str_mv 10.1073/pnas.1604386113
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source JSTOR Archive Collection A-Z Listing; PubMed Central; Alma/SFX Local Collection; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry
subjects Climate
Floods
Hazards
Hurricanes
Physical Sciences
Sea level
Tidal waves
title Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100
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