Progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in advanced/recurrent gastric cancer trials: a meta-analysis

The traditional endpoint for assessing efficacy of chemotherapies for advanced/recurrent gastric cancer is overall survival (OS), but OS requires prolonged follow-up. We investigated whether progression-free survival (PFS) is a valid surrogate for OS. Using individual patient data from the GASTRIC m...

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Veröffentlicht in:JNCI : Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2013-11, Vol.105 (21), p.1667-1670
Hauptverfasser: Paoletti, Xavier, Oba, Koji, Bang, Yung-Jue, Bleiberg, Harry, Boku, Narikazu, Bouché, Olivier, Catalano, Paul, Fuse, Nozomu, Michiels, Stefan, Moehler, Markus, Morita, Satoshi, Ohashi, Yasuo, Ohtsu, Atsushi, Roth, Arnaud, Rougier, Philippe, Sakamoto, Junichi, Sargent, Daniel, Sasako, Mitsuru, Shitara, Kohei, Thuss-Patience, Peter, Van Cutsem, Eric, Burzykowski, Tomasz, Buyse, Marc
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container_end_page 1670
container_issue 21
container_start_page 1667
container_title JNCI : Journal of the National Cancer Institute
container_volume 105
creator Paoletti, Xavier
Oba, Koji
Bang, Yung-Jue
Bleiberg, Harry
Boku, Narikazu
Bouché, Olivier
Catalano, Paul
Fuse, Nozomu
Michiels, Stefan
Moehler, Markus
Morita, Satoshi
Ohashi, Yasuo
Ohtsu, Atsushi
Roth, Arnaud
Rougier, Philippe
Sakamoto, Junichi
Sargent, Daniel
Sasako, Mitsuru
Shitara, Kohei
Thuss-Patience, Peter
Van Cutsem, Eric
Burzykowski, Tomasz
Buyse, Marc
description The traditional endpoint for assessing efficacy of chemotherapies for advanced/recurrent gastric cancer is overall survival (OS), but OS requires prolonged follow-up. We investigated whether progression-free survival (PFS) is a valid surrogate for OS. Using individual patient data from the GASTRIC meta-analysis, surrogacy of PFS was assessed through the correlation between the endpoints and through the correlation between the treatment effects on the endpoints. External validation of the prediction based on PFS was also evaluated. Individual data from 4069 patients in 20 randomized trials were analyzed. The rank correlation coefficient between PFS and OS was 0.853 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.852 to 0.854). The R (2) between treatment effects on PFS and on OS was 0.61 (95% CI = 0.04 to 1.00). Treatment effects on PFS and on OS were only moderately correlated, and we could not confirm the validity of PFS as a surrogate endpoint for OS in advanced/recurrent gastric cancer.
doi_str_mv 10.1093/jnci/djt269
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subjects Biomarkers
Brief Communication
Disease-Free Survival
Humans
Neoplasm Recurrence, Local - mortality
Neoplasm Recurrence, Local - therapy
Odds Ratio
Predictive Value of Tests
Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
Stomach Neoplasms - mortality
Stomach Neoplasms - pathology
Stomach Neoplasms - therapy
Treatment Outcome
title Progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in advanced/recurrent gastric cancer trials: a meta-analysis
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