Time series analysis of demographic and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Singapore
Singapore is an intermediate tuberculosis (TB) incidence country, with a recent rise in TB incidence from 2008, after a fall in incidence since 1998. This study identified population characteristics that were associated with the recent increase in TB cases, and built a predictive model of TB risk in...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | BMC public health 2014-10, Vol.14 (1), p.1121-1121, Article 1121 |
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| creator | Wah, Win Das, Sourav Earnest, Arul Lim, Leo Kang Yang Chee, Cynthia Bin Eng Cook, Alex Richard Wang, Yee Tang Win, Khin Mar Kyi Ong, Marcus Eng Hock Hsu, Li Yang |
| description | Singapore is an intermediate tuberculosis (TB) incidence country, with a recent rise in TB incidence from 2008, after a fall in incidence since 1998. This study identified population characteristics that were associated with the recent increase in TB cases, and built a predictive model of TB risk in Singapore.
Retrospective time series analysis was used to study TB notification data collected from 1995 to 2011 from the Singapore Tuberculosis Elimination Program (STEP) registry. A predictive model was developed based on the data collected from 1995 to 2010 and validated using the data collected in 2011.
There was a significant difference in demographic characteristics between resident and non-resident TB cases. TB risk was higher in non-residents than in residents throughout the period. We found no significant association between demographic and macro-economic factors and annual incidence of TB with or without adjusting for the population-at-risk. Despite growing non-resident population, there was a significant decrease in the non-resident TB risk (p |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1186/1471-2458-14-1121 |
| format | Article |
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Retrospective time series analysis was used to study TB notification data collected from 1995 to 2011 from the Singapore Tuberculosis Elimination Program (STEP) registry. A predictive model was developed based on the data collected from 1995 to 2010 and validated using the data collected in 2011.
There was a significant difference in demographic characteristics between resident and non-resident TB cases. TB risk was higher in non-residents than in residents throughout the period. We found no significant association between demographic and macro-economic factors and annual incidence of TB with or without adjusting for the population-at-risk. Despite growing non-resident population, there was a significant decrease in the non-resident TB risk (p < 0.0001). However, there was no evidence of trend in the resident TB risk over this time period, though differences between different demographic groups were apparent with ethnic minorities experiencing higher incidence rates.
The study found that despite an increasing size of non-resident population, TB risk among non-residents was decreasing at a rate of about 3% per year. There was an apparent seasonality in the TB reporting.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1471-2458</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1471-2458</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-1121</identifier><identifier>PMID: 25359711</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: BioMed Central Ltd</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Demographics ; Demography - trends ; Economic factors ; Emergency medical care ; Emigrants and Immigrants - statistics & numerical data ; Epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Hospitals ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infectious diseases ; Laboratories ; Middle Aged ; Minority & ethnic groups ; Models, Theoretical ; Mortality ; Mycobacterium ; Nonresidents ; Older people ; Population ; Population characteristics ; Population Groups - statistics & numerical data ; Population studies ; Prediction models ; Public health ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk ; Seasonal variations ; Singapore - epidemiology ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Studies ; Time Factors ; Time series ; Trends ; Tuberculosis ; Tuberculosis - epidemiology ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>BMC public health, 2014-10, Vol.14 (1), p.1121-1121, Article 1121</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2014 BioMed Central Ltd.</rights><rights>2014 Wah et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.</rights><rights><![CDATA[2014. This work is licensed under https://s100.copyright.com/AppDispatchServlet?imprint=Nature&title=Time%20series%20analysis%20of%20demographic%20and%20temporal%20trends%20of%20tuberculosis%20in%20Singapore&author=Win%20Wah%20et%20al&contentID=10.1186%2F1471-2458-14-1121&publication=BMC%20Public%20Health&publicationDate=2014-10-31&publisherName=SpringerNature&orderBeanReset=true (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.]]></rights><rights>Wah et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2014</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-b616t-aa69348800c264cc972450ba53f796baed0795031c442970fde2b0057e7201dc3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-b616t-aa69348800c264cc972450ba53f796baed0795031c442970fde2b0057e7201dc3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4230736/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4230736/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,723,776,780,860,881,27901,27902,53766,53768</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25359711$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Wah, Win</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Das, Sourav</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Earnest, Arul</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lim, Leo Kang Yang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chee, Cynthia Bin Eng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cook, Alex Richard</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Yee Tang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Win, Khin Mar Kyi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ong, Marcus Eng Hock</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hsu, Li Yang</creatorcontrib><title>Time series analysis of demographic and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Singapore</title><title>BMC public health</title><addtitle>BMC Public Health</addtitle><description>Singapore is an intermediate tuberculosis (TB) incidence country, with a recent rise in TB incidence from 2008, after a fall in incidence since 1998. This study identified population characteristics that were associated with the recent increase in TB cases, and built a predictive model of TB risk in Singapore.
Retrospective time series analysis was used to study TB notification data collected from 1995 to 2011 from the Singapore Tuberculosis Elimination Program (STEP) registry. A predictive model was developed based on the data collected from 1995 to 2010 and validated using the data collected in 2011.
There was a significant difference in demographic characteristics between resident and non-resident TB cases. TB risk was higher in non-residents than in residents throughout the period. We found no significant association between demographic and macro-economic factors and annual incidence of TB with or without adjusting for the population-at-risk. Despite growing non-resident population, there was a significant decrease in the non-resident TB risk (p < 0.0001). However, there was no evidence of trend in the resident TB risk over this time period, though differences between different demographic groups were apparent with ethnic minorities experiencing higher incidence rates.
The study found that despite an increasing size of non-resident population, TB risk among non-residents was decreasing at a rate of about 3% per year. There was an apparent seasonality in the TB reporting.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Demographics</subject><subject>Demography - trends</subject><subject>Economic factors</subject><subject>Emergency medical care</subject><subject>Emigrants and Immigrants - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Hospitals</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Laboratories</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Minority & ethnic groups</subject><subject>Models, Theoretical</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Mycobacterium</subject><subject>Nonresidents</subject><subject>Older people</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Population characteristics</subject><subject>Population Groups - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Population studies</subject><subject>Prediction models</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>Risk</subject><subject>Seasonal variations</subject><subject>Singapore - epidemiology</subject><subject>Socioeconomic Factors</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>Time series</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Tuberculosis</subject><subject>Tuberculosis - epidemiology</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>1471-2458</issn><issn>1471-2458</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2014</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNqNUk1r3DAQNaWlSdP-gF6KoZdenGpkfViXQkj6BYEcsj0LWR5vFGxpK9mB_PvI3XTZLWkpQmiYefNm9GaK4i2QU4BGfAQmoaKMNxWwCoDCs-J453u-Zx8Vr1K6JQRkw-nL4ojymisJcFysVm7EMmF0mErjzXCfXCpDX3Y4hnU0mxtns78rJxw3IZqhnCL67hdkmluMdh7CkuJ8ee382mQQvi5e9GZI-ObxPSl-fPm8Ov9WXV59_X5-dlm1AsRUGSNUzZqGEEsFs1bJ3CtpDa97qURrsCNScVKDZYwqSfoOaUsIlygpgc7WJ8WnLe9mbkfsLPopd6g30Y0m3utgnD6MeHej1-FOM1oTWYtMcLElaF34C8FhxIZRL6rqRdVs6UX1TPPhsY8Yfs6YJj26ZHEYjMcwJw2CSiV5Q-n_QClXPN8Mff8H9DbMMY8oaZrlAMYa0fwLlblAZS66x7U2A2rn-5C_Y5fS-ozXKlcTUmbU6ROofPIyOBs89i77DxJgm2BjSCliv5MOiF5W9Emx3u0PbZfxeyfrB4hT3qw</recordid><startdate>20141031</startdate><enddate>20141031</enddate><creator>Wah, Win</creator><creator>Das, Sourav</creator><creator>Earnest, Arul</creator><creator>Lim, Leo Kang Yang</creator><creator>Chee, Cynthia Bin Eng</creator><creator>Cook, Alex Richard</creator><creator>Wang, Yee Tang</creator><creator>Win, Khin Mar Kyi</creator><creator>Ong, Marcus Eng Hock</creator><creator>Hsu, Li Yang</creator><general>BioMed Central Ltd</general><general>BioMed Central</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7T2</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AN0</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>7QL</scope><scope>7U1</scope><scope>7U2</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20141031</creationdate><title>Time series analysis of demographic and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Singapore</title><author>Wah, Win ; Das, Sourav ; Earnest, Arul ; Lim, Leo Kang Yang ; Chee, Cynthia Bin Eng ; Cook, Alex Richard ; Wang, Yee Tang ; Win, Khin Mar Kyi ; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock ; Hsu, Li Yang</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-b616t-aa69348800c264cc972450ba53f796baed0795031c442970fde2b0057e7201dc3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2014</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aged, 80 and over</topic><topic>Demographics</topic><topic>Demography - 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epidemiology</topic><topic>Young Adult</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Wah, Win</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Das, Sourav</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Earnest, Arul</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lim, Leo Kang Yang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chee, Cynthia Bin Eng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cook, Alex Richard</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Yee Tang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Win, Khin Mar Kyi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ong, Marcus Eng Hock</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hsu, Li Yang</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health and Safety Science Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>British Nursing Database</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection (ProQuest)</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Risk Abstracts</collection><collection>Safety Science and Risk</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>BMC public health</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Wah, Win</au><au>Das, Sourav</au><au>Earnest, Arul</au><au>Lim, Leo Kang Yang</au><au>Chee, Cynthia Bin Eng</au><au>Cook, Alex Richard</au><au>Wang, Yee Tang</au><au>Win, Khin Mar Kyi</au><au>Ong, Marcus Eng Hock</au><au>Hsu, Li Yang</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Time series analysis of demographic and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Singapore</atitle><jtitle>BMC public health</jtitle><addtitle>BMC Public Health</addtitle><date>2014-10-31</date><risdate>2014</risdate><volume>14</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>1121</spage><epage>1121</epage><pages>1121-1121</pages><artnum>1121</artnum><issn>1471-2458</issn><eissn>1471-2458</eissn><abstract>Singapore is an intermediate tuberculosis (TB) incidence country, with a recent rise in TB incidence from 2008, after a fall in incidence since 1998. This study identified population characteristics that were associated with the recent increase in TB cases, and built a predictive model of TB risk in Singapore.
Retrospective time series analysis was used to study TB notification data collected from 1995 to 2011 from the Singapore Tuberculosis Elimination Program (STEP) registry. A predictive model was developed based on the data collected from 1995 to 2010 and validated using the data collected in 2011.
There was a significant difference in demographic characteristics between resident and non-resident TB cases. TB risk was higher in non-residents than in residents throughout the period. We found no significant association between demographic and macro-economic factors and annual incidence of TB with or without adjusting for the population-at-risk. Despite growing non-resident population, there was a significant decrease in the non-resident TB risk (p < 0.0001). However, there was no evidence of trend in the resident TB risk over this time period, though differences between different demographic groups were apparent with ethnic minorities experiencing higher incidence rates.
The study found that despite an increasing size of non-resident population, TB risk among non-residents was decreasing at a rate of about 3% per year. There was an apparent seasonality in the TB reporting.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>BioMed Central Ltd</pub><pmid>25359711</pmid><doi>10.1186/1471-2458-14-1121</doi><tpages>1</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Demographics Demography - trends Economic factors Emergency medical care Emigrants and Immigrants - statistics & numerical data Epidemiology Forecasting Hospitals Humans Incidence Infectious diseases Laboratories Middle Aged Minority & ethnic groups Models, Theoretical Mortality Mycobacterium Nonresidents Older people Population Population characteristics Population Groups - statistics & numerical data Population studies Prediction models Public health Retrospective Studies Risk Seasonal variations Singapore - epidemiology Socioeconomic Factors Studies Time Factors Time series Trends Tuberculosis Tuberculosis - epidemiology Young Adult |
| title | Time series analysis of demographic and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Singapore |
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