Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study
Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK.Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.Setting United Kingdom.Population Adults aged 16 and over.Intervention A 20% tax o...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | BMJ (Online) 2013-10, Vol.347 (oct31 4), p.f6189-f6189 |
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| creator | Briggs, Adam D M Mytton, Oliver T Kehlbacher, Ariane Tiffin, Richard Rayner, Mike Scarborough, Peter |
| description | Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK.Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.Setting United Kingdom.Population Adults aged 16 and over.Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks.Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥25) and obese (≥30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated.Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%).Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1136/bmj.f6189 |
| format | Article |
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Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated.Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%).Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0959-8138</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1756-1833</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1756-1833</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1136/bmj.f6189</identifier><identifier>PMID: 24179043</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: British Medical Journal Publishing Group</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Adult ; Alcohol ; Beverages - economics ; Beverages - statistics & numerical data ; Body mass ; Body Mass Index ; Body weight ; Childrens television ; Commerce - economics ; Data Collection ; Dietary Sucrose - administration & dosage ; Dietary Sucrose - adverse effects ; Energy Intake ; Estimates ; Expenditures ; Female ; Food prices ; Health Surveys ; Households ; Humans ; Income ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Econometric ; Nutrition ; Obesity ; Obesity - economics ; Obesity - epidemiology ; Obesity - prevention & control ; Overweight ; Overweight - economics ; Overweight - epidemiology ; Overweight - prevention & control ; Population studies ; Prevalence ; Prices ; Public health ; Purchasing ; Risk Assessment ; Sales taxes ; Soft drinks ; Sugar ; Taxation ; Taxes - economics ; United Kingdom - epidemiology ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>BMJ (Online), 2013-10, Vol.347 (oct31 4), p.f6189-f6189</ispartof><rights>Briggs et al 2013</rights><rights>2013 Briggs et al 2013 Briggs et al This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ . Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>Briggs et al 2013 2013 Briggs et al</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-b500t-230d18377a9e937cae0c0ccbf0fb294c9ad2dfacee58ff46689b46ca8eeee2983</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-b500t-230d18377a9e937cae0c0ccbf0fb294c9ad2dfacee58ff46689b46ca8eeee2983</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttp://bmj.com/content/347/bmj.f6189.full.pdf$$EPDF$$P50$$Gbmj$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttp://bmj.com/content/347/bmj.f6189.full$$EHTML$$P50$$Gbmj$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>114,115,230,315,781,785,886,3197,23576,27929,27930,55351,77605,77636,77664,77690</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24179043$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Briggs, Adam D M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mytton, Oliver T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kehlbacher, Ariane</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tiffin, Richard</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rayner, Mike</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Scarborough, Peter</creatorcontrib><title>Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study</title><title>BMJ (Online)</title><addtitle>BMJ</addtitle><addtitle>BMJ</addtitle><description>Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK.Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.Setting United Kingdom.Population Adults aged 16 and over.Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks.Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥25) and obese (≥30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated.Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%).Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Alcohol</subject><subject>Beverages - economics</subject><subject>Beverages - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Body mass</subject><subject>Body Mass Index</subject><subject>Body weight</subject><subject>Childrens television</subject><subject>Commerce - economics</subject><subject>Data Collection</subject><subject>Dietary Sucrose - administration & dosage</subject><subject>Dietary Sucrose - adverse effects</subject><subject>Energy Intake</subject><subject>Estimates</subject><subject>Expenditures</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Food prices</subject><subject>Health Surveys</subject><subject>Households</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Income</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Models, Econometric</subject><subject>Nutrition</subject><subject>Obesity</subject><subject>Obesity - economics</subject><subject>Obesity - epidemiology</subject><subject>Obesity - prevention & control</subject><subject>Overweight</subject><subject>Overweight - economics</subject><subject>Overweight - epidemiology</subject><subject>Overweight - prevention & control</subject><subject>Population studies</subject><subject>Prevalence</subject><subject>Prices</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Purchasing</subject><subject>Risk Assessment</subject><subject>Sales taxes</subject><subject>Soft drinks</subject><subject>Sugar</subject><subject>Taxation</subject><subject>Taxes - economics</subject><subject>United Kingdom - epidemiology</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>0959-8138</issn><issn>1756-1833</issn><issn>1756-1833</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2013</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>9YT</sourceid><sourceid>ACMMV</sourceid><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kc9uEzEQxlcIRKPSAy-ALEEPHLa11_vH5oCEIqCoVVsJirhZXu84dbJrB9ubNi_FM-I0bQpCwhcf5jffNzNflr0k-IgQWh-3w_xI14TxJ9mENFWdE0bp02yCecVzRijbyw5CmGOMC9owXlfPs72iJA3HJZ1kvy5W4GXfI2k7ZKxyA6CwBGW0UQi0BhWRs2jpYSV7sAqQ08ilnhsws-t41-ZaCCauN5UCH6IwzqRH4QYggoUOdd7YBYryNumjq9N3CJSzySf6ZLHpT6ZL6WU0K0DehAWSIUAIA9iIBtdB3xs7QyGO3fpF9kzLPsDB_b-fXX36-G16kp9dfP4y_XCWtxXGMS8o7tIZmkZy4LRRErDCSrUa67bgpeKyKzotFUDFtC7rmvG2rJVkkF7BGd3P3m91l2M7QKfSKOlKYunNIP1aOGnE3xVrrsXMrQRlpCxxlQRe3wt493OEEMXcjd6mmQXhZcUaXhcbm7dbSnkXgge9cyBYbNIVKV1xl25iX_050o58yDIB-RYwIcLtri79QtQNbSpx_n0qLr-W5z9O2Km4TPybLb_x-J_v4SP2uMQ_3G-wDsz9</recordid><startdate>20131031</startdate><enddate>20131031</enddate><creator>Briggs, Adam D M</creator><creator>Mytton, Oliver T</creator><creator>Kehlbacher, Ariane</creator><creator>Tiffin, Richard</creator><creator>Rayner, Mike</creator><creator>Scarborough, Peter</creator><general>British Medical Journal Publishing Group</general><general>BMJ Publishing Group LTD</general><general>BMJ Publishing Group Ltd</general><scope>9YT</scope><scope>ACMMV</scope><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AF</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ASE</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BTHHO</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FPQ</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K6X</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>5PM</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20131031</creationdate><title>Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study</title><author>Briggs, Adam D M ; Mytton, Oliver T ; Kehlbacher, Ariane ; Tiffin, Richard ; Rayner, Mike ; Scarborough, Peter</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-b500t-230d18377a9e937cae0c0ccbf0fb294c9ad2dfacee58ff46689b46ca8eeee2983</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2013</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Alcohol</topic><topic>Beverages - economics</topic><topic>Beverages - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Body mass</topic><topic>Body Mass Index</topic><topic>Body weight</topic><topic>Childrens television</topic><topic>Commerce - economics</topic><topic>Data Collection</topic><topic>Dietary Sucrose - administration & dosage</topic><topic>Dietary Sucrose - adverse effects</topic><topic>Energy Intake</topic><topic>Estimates</topic><topic>Expenditures</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Food prices</topic><topic>Health Surveys</topic><topic>Households</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Income</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Models, Econometric</topic><topic>Nutrition</topic><topic>Obesity</topic><topic>Obesity - economics</topic><topic>Obesity - epidemiology</topic><topic>Obesity - prevention & control</topic><topic>Overweight</topic><topic>Overweight - economics</topic><topic>Overweight - epidemiology</topic><topic>Overweight - prevention & control</topic><topic>Population studies</topic><topic>Prevalence</topic><topic>Prices</topic><topic>Public health</topic><topic>Purchasing</topic><topic>Risk Assessment</topic><topic>Sales taxes</topic><topic>Soft drinks</topic><topic>Sugar</topic><topic>Taxation</topic><topic>Taxes - economics</topic><topic>United Kingdom - epidemiology</topic><topic>Young Adult</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Briggs, Adam D M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mytton, Oliver T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kehlbacher, Ariane</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tiffin, Richard</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rayner, Mike</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Scarborough, Peter</creatorcontrib><collection>BMJ Open Access Journals</collection><collection>BMJ Journals:Open Access</collection><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>STEM Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>British Nursing Index</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>BMJ Journals</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>British Nursing Index (BNI) (1985 to Present)</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>British Nursing Index</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>BMJ (Online)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Briggs, Adam D M</au><au>Mytton, Oliver T</au><au>Kehlbacher, Ariane</au><au>Tiffin, Richard</au><au>Rayner, Mike</au><au>Scarborough, Peter</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study</atitle><jtitle>BMJ (Online)</jtitle><stitle>BMJ</stitle><addtitle>BMJ</addtitle><date>2013-10-31</date><risdate>2013</risdate><volume>347</volume><issue>oct31 4</issue><spage>f6189</spage><epage>f6189</epage><pages>f6189-f6189</pages><issn>0959-8138</issn><issn>1756-1833</issn><eissn>1756-1833</eissn><abstract>Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK.Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.Setting United Kingdom.Population Adults aged 16 and over.Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks.Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥25) and obese (≥30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated.Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%).Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>British Medical Journal Publishing Group</pub><pmid>24179043</pmid><doi>10.1136/bmj.f6189</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adolescent Adult Alcohol Beverages - economics Beverages - statistics & numerical data Body mass Body Mass Index Body weight Childrens television Commerce - economics Data Collection Dietary Sucrose - administration & dosage Dietary Sucrose - adverse effects Energy Intake Estimates Expenditures Female Food prices Health Surveys Households Humans Income Male Middle Aged Models, Econometric Nutrition Obesity Obesity - economics Obesity - epidemiology Obesity - prevention & control Overweight Overweight - economics Overweight - epidemiology Overweight - prevention & control Population studies Prevalence Prices Public health Purchasing Risk Assessment Sales taxes Soft drinks Sugar Taxation Taxes - economics United Kingdom - epidemiology Young Adult |
| title | Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study |
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